The latest Market Talks covering Commodities. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
0345 GMT - Capstone Copper is one stock where the devil isn't in the detail, say MA Moelis Australia analysts. "Obviously individual asset level performance is important, but if/when the business broadly meets its production promises, we think the stock is a close proxy for the copper price," the analysts write in a note. While Capstone's 2Q production is a tad lower than MA's estimates, and costs slightly higher, Ebitda appears a beat to consensus, they say. Record Ebitda of US$354 million in 2Q compares with consensus of US$339 million. Output totals 51,759 metric tons of copper. MA was expecting about 53,300 tons. MA has a buy rating and A$15.90 target on the stock. Shares rise 8.5% in Sydney to A$13.87. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)
0239 GMT - Palm oil falls in Asian trading on profit taking. However, CPO futures remain technically supported, AmInvestment Bank says in a note. Unless external markets experience a significant downturn, any pullbacks are expected to attract both commercial and speculative buying interest, it says. AmInvestment Bank expects prices to face resistance at 4,703 ringgit a ton and find support at 4,649 ringgit a ton. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for October delivery is lower by 24 ringgit at 4,659 ringgit a ton. (yingxian.wong@wsj.com)
0227 GMT - Iron ore declines in the Asian session. The fall is likely due to dampened expectations of Chinese stimulus that would lend support to steel demand, says Commonwealth Bank of Australia's Ryan Felsman in a note.China's Politburo on Thursday signalled little appetite for major stimulus in 2H. Iron-ore demand is typically influenced by steel, as the ferrous metal is a key input for steel production. The most-traded iron-ore contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange drops 0.8% to 719.50 yuan a metric ton. (megan.cheah@wsj.com)
0215 GMT - Copper edges higher in early Asian trade. Sentiment across the base metal sector was boosted by the Fed leaving rates unchanged, while signs of short-term tightness also provided some support, the ANZ Research team writes in a note. Tightening supply may be due to ongoing concerns that the Trump administration may impose tariffs on copper imports, it adds. The three-month LME copper contract is 0.1% higher at $13,813.50 a ton. (kimberley.kao@wsj.com)
0048 GMT - Gold falls in Asian trade. The precious metal appears to be trading largely within its consolidation range of the last few weeks, says Empire FX's Crispus Nyaga in an email. Markets are likely reacting to the Federal Reserve's decision to hold its interest rates steady, he says. Traders seem to be pricing in a rate hike at the next meeting, but the probability for another hold has likely increased after the latest U.S. price index of personal-consumption expenditures, he says. Still, major central banks are expected to tighten policy in coming months, he adds. A higher interest-rate environment typically drags down the nonyielding yellow metal. Spot gold declines 0.3% to $4,091.57 a troy ounce.(megan.cheah@wsj.com)
1928 GMT - Live cattle futures on the CME finish up 1.6% to $2.2745 a pound. Cattle prices are climbing after the USDA said it was beginning the process of gradually reopening the U.S.-Mexico border to Mexican feeder cattle exports. "Time will tell just how many will cross the border," says ADM Investor Services. Lean hog futures settle lower, dropping 2.9% to 83.25 cents a pound. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1913 GMT - U.S. natural gas futures rise with September making its debut as the new front month. Prices received a modest lift from the EIA's storage report showing a below-estimate 28 Bcf inventory build for last week that left the surplus against the five-year average little changed at 185 Bcf. "Cooling demand is expected to trend higher across most of the U.S. in the coming weeks, likely resulting in lighter storage builds as the market moves through the historical peak of summer," Andy Huenefeld of Pinebrook Energy Advisors says in a note. Nymex natural gas for September delivery settles up1.3% at $2.758/mmBtu.(anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
1908 GMT - CBOT corn and soybean futures are lower as traders get their books in order ahead of August. Weather is also turning favorable for grains following a hot streak in much of the Corn Belt. "Timely precipitation is forecast for much of Iowa and Illinois over the coming days keeps production optimism alive in the heart of corn & soybean country," says Brady Huck of EmpowerAg Trading. The effect of copious rainfall may be reflected in yields reported when the USDA releases its next WASDE report on Aug. 12. Corn is down 0.4%, while soybeans drop 0.2% but wheat remains up 0.8%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1908 GMT - Oil futures return some of the previous session's gains after the U.S. hit back at Iran, as expected, for an attack on its bases in Jordan. Continuing strife around the Persian Gulf region limits losses. "The conflict has somehow morphed from eliminating Iran's nuclear program to opening the Strait of Hormuz," although there doesn't seem to be a plan to reopen the waterway, Mizuho's Robert Yawger says in a note. "Saudi exports through the Red Sea are now risky, and the concept of Iran abandoning their nuclear program and handing over their nuclear dust to the U.S. seems to be highly unlikely." WTI settles down 1% at $83.59 a barrel and Brent falls 1.9% to $89.03 a barrel ahead of Friday's expiration.(anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
1811 GMT - CBOT corn and soybean futures have reversed course with most-active corn now down 0.5% for the day, while soybeans are 0.1% lower. Wheat still remains 0.7% higher on escalated Russia-Ukraine warfare. "It feels like we have made our moves for the day," says Charlie Sernatinger of Marex in a note. According to the daily weather forecast from the USDA, much-needed rain is being seen in the western Plains, moving eastward today. Expectations for more rain have weighed on grains in recent days. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1809 GMT - The yen will likely need more than government intervention to gain sustainable strength, Insight Investment's Alex Moloney says. The dollar weakens 2.7% against the Japanese currency, fueling unconfirmed speculation that Tokyo has stepped in to support the yen. Authorities have recently moved to dissuade locals from sending money overseas, as a way to boost demand for yen assets. Moloney says a more hawkish central bank is needed. "If we were to see the Bank of Japan get to the head of the curve and start to hike rates more aggressively, more speedily, then that would support the yen going forward." The BoJ is expected to hold rates steady Friday. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)
1531 GMT - The Fed's decision to leave rates unchanged gives investors confidence to re-embrace gold, says Rick Kanda of the Gold Bullion Co. But Kanda cautions that even if current gold prices are relatively cheap compared to the all-time highs found last year, ongoing risks remain in place. "In all honesty, the geopolitical and economic environment can change dramatically, leaving space for uncertainty and volatility," says Kanda in a note. Most-active gold futures are up 1.3%, while silver rises 0.7%.
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