Gold, silver retreat as dollar strength caps post-Fed rebound - Kitco AM Report

Kitco07-31 12:50

(Kitco NewsWire) - Spot gold and silver prices are lower ahead of the North American market open Friday, as a firmer U.S. dollar, elevated Treasury yields and renewed oil strength pressured precious ...

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At the time of writing, spot gold was trading near $4,057.10 an ounce, down 1.11%, while spot silver was trading near $57.77, down 1.90% on the session.Gold’s early range was $4,049.40 to $4,112.80, leaving the metal above the $4,000 area but below Thursday’s $4,101 breakout level and the $4,114 resistance level identified in the latest short-term technical setup. Silver’s early range was $57.53 to $59.30, with the metal holding above $57.53 but failing to sustain a move through the $59.00 to $60.03 resistance band.Positioning after Wednesday’s Fed rate announcement and the latest data remains two-sided, but not cleanly supportive for metals. The Fed held rates steady in the 3.50% to 3.75% range by a 9-3 vote, with three officials favoring a 25-basis-point hike, leaving September hike risk alive. Thursday’s data showed U.S. real GDP rose at a 1.5% annualized rate in the second quarter, down from 2.1% in the first quarter, while June headline PCE fell 0.1% on the month and slowed to 3.7% year over year. Core PCE rose 0.1% on the month and eased to 3.3% year over year. Personal income rose 0.2% and consumer spending rose 0.3%. The data support the case for a hold, but inflation remains above target and the 10-year Treasury yield was near 4.67%, leaving gold capped by real-rate pressure and a firmer dollar.The Strait of Hormuz situation is best characterized as severely disrupted transit under active military and shipping pressure, not a normalized operating environment. The U.S.-Iran conflict has impaired petroleum shipments through the strait for months, while Red Sea and Gulf shipping risks continue to keep a premium in crude and refined products. WTI crude traded near $85.46 in early U.S. trade, while Brent was near the high-$80s after pulling back from higher wartime levels earlier in the quarter. For gold, the impact remains two-sided: geopolitical and shipping risk support defensive demand, but higher oil prices feed inflation expectations, keep Treasury yields elevated and limit the upside for non-yielding bullion. For broader markets, the setup is oil firmer, dollar firm, bonds under pressure and silver underperforming gold.Traders are watching follow-through in September Fed-rate pricing, the market’s response to Thursday’s GDP and PCE data, energy-price moves tied to Hormuz and Red Sea shipping, and any new Fed communication before the September policy meeting. A sustained move above $4,101 would improve gold’s short-term setup, while a break below $4,049.40 would put the $4,028.40 and $3,995.20 support levels back in focus.The key outside markets see Nymex WTI crude oil prices firmer and trading near $85.46 a barrel, while Brent crude was near the high-$80s. The U.S. dollar index is firmer. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is trading near the 4.67% area.Technically, spot gold bears have the overall near-term technical advantage as prices remain below the 50-period moving average near $4,058 and the 100-period moving average near $4,071, while the metal continues to struggle below the $4,101.10 to $4,114 resistance area. Bulls' next upside price objective is to push prices back above $4,101.10, with a sustained move targeting $4,114 and then $4,166. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is a break below $4,049.40, with deeper downside targets at $4,028.40 and then $3,995.20. First resistance is seen at $4,101.10 and then at $4,114. First support is seen at $4,049.40 and then at $4,028.40.Spot silver bears have the overall near-term technical advantage as prices remain below the 50-period moving average near $58.11 and the 100-period moving average near $58.78, while the metal failed to hold Thursday’s push toward $59.30. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is to drive prices back above $59.00, with a move above that level targeting $60.03 and then $61.03. The next downside price objective for the bears is a break below $57.53, with deeper downside targets at $56.88 and then $56.11. First resistance is seen at $59.00 and then at $60.03. Next support is seen at $57.53 and then at $56.88.","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":false,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"isLaohu8Offline":false,"tenantId":"TBGLOBAL","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.46.0","shortVersion":"4.46.0","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2655361608","isCrawlerRequest":true}