The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to deliver a hawkish interest rate hold at its August monetary policy meeting as inflation has been more benign than the central bank's forecast, Westpac said in a Wednesday report.
Australia's consumer price index (CPI) rose 3.8% in the 12 months to June, moderating from a 4% increase in the previous month, with market services inflation and the all-important housing-related components both coming in below expectations.
"We no longer expect rate hikes by the RBA this year," Westpac said. "The substantial pass-through of higher energy costs seen in the early phase of the Middle East conflict has not been followed up in recent months."
Westpac still expects the RBA to debate the case for a rate increase in August, noting that a risk of a hike in November still exists if inflation accelerates again in the third quarter, although this is not part of the bank's base case scenario.
Additionally, the latest inflation print does not alter Westpac's forecast August 2027 timing for the central bank to start unwinding rate hikes implemented earlier this year, it said.
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