First Solar was having itself a day Monday as investors piled into the stock, making it the top performer in the S&P 500.
First Solar stock surged 14% to $239.80 on Monday, rising to the head the S&P 500 after ending Friday up 2.4%. If the move holds, it will be the stock's largest daily percentage increase since Oct. 31 2025, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
It wasn't exactly clear what was fueling shares.
Guggenheim analyst Joseph Osha and Citi analyst Vikram Bagri on Monday kept a Buy rating on the stock raised their price targets. But the price target hikes weren't substantial, with Guggenheim hiking its price target to $282 from $279 and Citi increasing its target to $297 from $294.
That alone doesn't explain such a significant advance, and it might be that investors' response to the company's earnings might simply have been delayed by a trading session.
First Solar late Thursday reported earnings of $3.92 a share for the second quarter, up from $3.18 a year ago and coming in well above Wall Street's expectations of $2.90. Sales declined 4% to $1.06 billion, in line with the analyst consensus call for $1.063 billion, according to FactSet.
The company also stuck by its full-year guidance, expecting sales between $4.9 billion and $5.2 billion, slightly below Wall Street's expectation at the midpoint. First Solar expects gross profit of $2.4 billion to $2.6 billion, just above consensus.
William Blair analyst Jed Dorsheimer on Friday noted that First Solar maintained full-year guidance and addressed the limited market visibility until Section 232 rulings are determined.
Section 232 -- the U.S. trade law provision that allows the government to investigate imports on grounds of national security -- has been a policy overhang for the stock and, more broadly, the U.S. solar industry.
Ongoing national security investigations and tariffs on imported raw materials -- such as steel, aluminum, and polysilicon -- have created severe pricing uncertainty, delayed projects, and complicated long-term procurement plans for many solar companies.
If the U.S. eases restrictions on imported polysilicon, a key material in solar panels, First Solar and other solar stocks could see significant upside. It might be that Wall Street is betting First Solar will come out ahead when the government decision comes down.
The government decision on the investigation into imported polysilicon is expected sometime soon after getting pushed out from late June.
"The government's findings on 232 could materially affect First Solar's competitive positioning, improving both the economics of domestic production and prompting the need for flex capacity in its Southeast Asian facilities," Dorsheimer wrote.
CEO Mark Widmar during the earnings call late Thursday said that First Solar expects "greater policy clarity will help inform the long-term operating profile for the approximately 1.8 gigawatts of fully finished international capacity that remains available."
"Relative to the beginning of the year, we are seeing increased customer engagement. And as policy clarity improves, we believe First Solar remains well-positioned to capitalize on these opportunities," Widmar added.
Guggenheim's Osha late Thursday noted there wasn't "much new to see here" on the earnings report as Wall Street still waits on "policy developments."
"FSLR's leadership continues to believe that multiple gigawatts in customer volume are awaiting policy clarity, on Section 232 in particular, and is not being particularly aggressive in seeking to book new business despite an attractive pricing environment," Osha wrote.
First Solar wasn't the only solar energy sector stock rising on Monday. Nextpower added 1%, Enphase Energy rose 2.7%, SolarEdge Technologies gained 6.2%, and Sunrun advanced 5.5%.
Even with the big move Monday, First Solar remains down 8.2% this year. Shares, however, have gained 31% over the past 12 months.
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