Deere (DE) Could Be 8% Undervalued On UAW Contract Dispute

Simply Wall St.08-03 22:18

Deere (DE) is back in focus after a disagreement with the United Auto Workers over extending their collective bargaining agreement beyond its fall 2027 expiry, raising fresh questions about costs and ...

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See our latest analysis for Deere. Over the past year, Deere’s share price has moved sharply at times, and the recent disagreement with the UAW appears to be weighing on sentiment. The 7 day share price return is down 5.65% and the 1 month share price return is down 5.57%. By contrast, a 26.96% year to date share price return and a 72.52% five year total shareholder return point to longer term momentum that has, so far, remained intact. If this contract standoff has you thinking more broadly about where to put fresh capital to work, it could be worth scanning other industrial and infrastructure exposed companies through the 35 power grid technology and infrastructure stocks Deere now trades at a discount to both analyst targets and some fair value estimates, even after its strong multi‑year run. Is the market sensibly pricing in labor and demand risks, or leaning too far toward caution? AdvertisementMost Popular Narrative: 8% Undervalued Deere's most followed narrative points to a fair value of about $644 per share, compared with the recent close around $593. This frames the stock as modestly undervalued on discounted cash flow assumptions.  Rapid adoption of Deere's precision agriculture and automation solutions (e.g., JDLink Boost, Precision Essentials bundles, See & Spray tech, and new automation features) is driving higher-value product sales and increased software engagement globally. This is positioning Deere to benefit from shifts toward high-efficiency, technology-enabled farming, which in turn is expected to lift both future revenue and net margins through higher-margin recurring software and data services.  Read the complete narrative. Want to see what sits behind that confidence in Deere's tech pivot? The narrative leans heavily on margin expansion, steadier software revenue and a specific earnings path that ties back to its fair value target. Result: Fair Value of $644 (UNDERVALUED) Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts. However, Deere's story can break if tariff costs bite harder than expected or if prolonged weakness in large agriculture demand keeps margins under pressure longer than analysts anticipate. Find out about the key risks to this Deere narrative. Another View On Deere's Valuation The earlier narrative leans on cash flow forecasts that frame Deere as undervalued. The picture changes when current pricing is compared with earnings. Deere trades on a P/E of 33.4x versus a US Machinery industry average of 26.8x and a fair ratio of 42.9x, which points to both richer pricing than peers and some cushion versus the level our fair ratio implies. For investors, that mix of premium and headroom raises a simple question: Is the extra price you pay today a risk worth taking for Deere's story? See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown. NYSE:DE P/E Ratio as at Aug 2026Next Steps If this mix of optimism and caution around Deere leaves you unsure, move quickly to review the underlying data and form your own stance. To see both sides laid out clearly, take a closer look at the 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign Looking for more investment ideas beyond Deere? If Deere's situation has you rethinking where to put your next dollar, use the Simply Wall Street Screener to quickly surface other opportunities that fit your approach.  Target resilient cash generators by scanning companies with steady earnings profiles and compelling valuations through the 55 high quality undervalued stocks. Strengthen your income stream by focusing on companies with higher yields and consistent payouts using the 9 dividend fortresses. Prioritise staying power by zeroing in on companies with robust finances via the solid balance sheet and fundamentals stocks screener (45 results).   This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n        and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n        financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n        Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n        Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.New: Manage All Your Stock Portfolios in One PlaceWe've created the ultimate portfolio companion for stock investors, and it's free.• Connect an unlimited number of Portfolios and see your total in one currency• Be alerted to new Warning Signs or Risks via email or mobile• Track the Fair Value of your stocksTry a Demo Portfolio for FreeHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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