The latest Market Talks covering Energy markets. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
1517 ET - U.S. natural gas futures make a modest advance with temperatures expected to heat up into next week, favoring power-sector demand. "Although heat has intensified across Texas and overall gas demand is approaching its strongest levels of the season, the market remains focused on healthy storage inventories, softer summer LNG feedgas, and power generation demand that continues to trail recent years," Andy Huenefeld of Pinebrook Energy Advisors says in anote. At the same time, "the approaching shoulder season is increasingly coming into focus," he adds. Nymex natural gas settles up 1.2% at $2.781/mmBtu.(anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
1510 ET - Oil futures fall after the U.S. suspended plans for major attacks against Iran, while expectations of a negotiated solution to the conflict remain in question. "Previous negotiations have failed to produce a comprehensive agreement, and any diplomatic setback could reignite hostilities and the geopolitical risk premium," says Nikos Tzabouras of Tradu. A deal to restore traffic through the strait could lead to deeper declines, while continued shipping disruptions and new risks in Red Sea leave the door open to further gains, he adds. WTI settles down 5.1% at $80.34 a barrel and Brent falls 4.7% to $83.77. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
1412 ET - Oil futures are lower after President Trump called off planned attacks on Iran to give space for talks, although Iran says it's only talking with Oman about control of the Strait of Hormuz. "The move down was a little bit unwarranted, because nothing has changed," says Tracy Shuchart of NinjaTrader Group. "It's the same problem that we keep coming up with. Iran says they want to have control of the strait, and charge some kind of toll with the U.S. administration saying that's not going to happen." Oil prices are still likely to go higher, as a solution to the conflict looks no closer after five months of the strait being closed, she adds. "The situation has gotten worse, not better." WTI is off 5.3% at $80.18 a barrel and Brent is down 4.7% at $83.74. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
1032 ET - Dubai stocks lead major Gulf equity markets higher after President Trump called off planned strikes on Iran and said peace talks would resume Monday. The Dubai Financial Market General Index rises 1.4%, Saudi Arabia's Tadawul All Share Index gains 1.1%, Qatar's QE index adds 0.8% and Abu Dhabi's benchmark index is up 0.3%. Easing geopolitical risk, lower oil prices and strong regional earnings are supporting the relief rally, though its sustainability will depend on further stability and continued earnings strength, says Mazen Abou Ismail, head of trading desk at FFA Private Bank Dubai. (farhan.rafid@wsj.com)
1005 ET - The Hungarian forint stands to benefit the most among its central European peers from hopes for Middle East diplomacy due to its sensitivity to global risk sentiment, ING's Frantisek Taborsky says in a note. "The lack of further escalation points to a more constructive mood in the days ahead, while new highs in euro-dollar should support some gains in Central and Eastern European currencies." The euro falls 0.2% to 363.75 forints. It reached a one-week high of 364.94 on Friday, LSEG data show. The forint's decline Friday was driven by risk aversion and Hungary's temporary closure of a nuclear power plant which could affect both industrial production and energy imports, Taborsky says. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0940 ET - U.S. natural gas futures edge up in early trading with above normal temperatures likely to support power-sector demand into next week. Next week "may prove the last best chance for national cooling demand this summer before underlying normals begin to wane seasonally into late August," Eli Rubin of EBW Analytics says in a note. Commitment of traders data for the week ended July 28 showed an increase in speculator short positions. "The build-up to-date has yet to result in a substantial short-covering event," and while risks are increasing "there are few obvious near-term bullish catalysts on the horizon," Rubin adds. Nymex natural gas is up 0.8% at $2.769/mmBtu. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
0921 ET - CBOT grains are mostly lower premarket, with most-active corn futures down 0.5% and soybeans sliding 0.7%. Grains are taking a cue from the big dip seen in crude oil prices--down 6.7% to below $80 a barrel. "The focus remains on the war fronts and mostly on a more optimistic outlook for the Strait and Iran, with negotiations at least scheduled for this afternoon," says Matt Zeller of StoneX in a note. Grains and oil are connected via grain usage as a feedstock for renewable fuels. Wheat is higher premarket, with that most-active contract up 0.2%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
0901 ET - Oil futures are sharply lower after the U.S. suspended planned strikes on Iran in favor of resuming talks. President Trump said at the weekend that "the perimeters of a deal" have been agreed to, including the total reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has yet to confirm that talks with the U.S. are set to restart, Peter Cardillo of Spartan Capital notes. "The current geopolitical rhetoric is exerting downward pressure on oil prices, which is beneficial for other markets. Nevertheless, oil prices could quickly reverse if talks do not resume," he says. WTI is down 6.3% at $79.31 a barrel and Brent is 5.3% lower at $83.25.(anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
0810 ET - Bitcoin and ether fall even as risk sentiment improves after President Trump said he called off an attack against Iran and said talks would begin Monday. "Cryptocurrencies have been left out of the general excitement, and now look at risk of tipping over into a fresh deep correction," IG analyst Chris Beauchamp says in a note. Cryptocurrencies stand or fall on momentum and sellers appear to be getting the upper hand, he says. Bitcoin falls 1.2% to $62,687, LSEG data show. Ether drops 2.1% to $1,842. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0809 ET - Investors lower their expectations of the Bank of England increasing interest rates in the coming months as oil prices fall due to easing tensions in the Middle East. The U.S. announced plans to hold talks with Iran on Monday, raising prospects of a potential resolution to the Middle East conflict and the possible reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Markets currently price in a total of 26 basis points of BOE rate rises in 2026, down from 30 basis points priced in last week, LSEG data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
0805 ET - Bahrain is likely to receive additional financial support from Gulf neighbors if the renewed closure of the Strait of Hormuz persists, Capital Economics says. The consultancy says Bahrain's foreign-exchange reserves fell to just over $2 billion in June from $6 billion in March, leaving policymakers with limited room to defend the dollar peg or support the balance of payments. While a prolonged Hormuz closure would raise the risk of devaluation and sovereign default, Saudi Arabia or the UAE would probably step in to prevent broader concerns over Gulf dollar pegs, the consultancy says. (farhan.rafid@wsj.com)
0729 ET - Saudi Arabia's economy is becoming more dependent on government spending as the Iran war weakens private-sector momentum, EFG Hermes says. Public consumption rose 11% and public investment surged 52% in real terms in the first quarter, while non-oil private investment contracted 1.4% and overall fixed investment fell 7.6%. The investment bank forecasts the economy will contract by 1% in 2026, with oil GDP shrinking around 11% and non-oil growth slowing to 2%, as conflict-related uncertainty weighs on investment, hiring and exports.
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