The latest Market Talks covering Financial Services. Exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires at 4:20 ET, 12:20 ET and 16:50 ET.
0750 GMT - Market concerns about Adyen's ability to cope with a challenging environment appear overdone, Citi's Pavan Daswani writes in a note. The Amsterdam-based payments provider's shares have fallen more than 30% year-to-date due to concerns around consumer spending, increased competition and the company's M&A strategy, he notes. However, an analysis of the percentage Adyen retains from each transaction, along with recent peer results suggests "no meaningful deterioration in spending trends, wallet-share dynamics or competitive intensity." Additionally, the company's strategy to expand its operations beyond payments into related e-commerce sectors is supported by its recent acquisitions, he says. Shares are up 2.2% at 928.20 euros. (najat.kantouar@wsj.com)
0239 GMT - Malaysia's equity market is expected to remain volatile amid domestic political uncertainty and geopolitical risks, Affin Hwang IB analysts say in a note. They downgrade Malaysia's equity market rating to neutral from overweight after Barisan Nasional and Perikatan Nasional's landslide victory in the Negeri Sembilan state election. This victory has raised the likelihood of an early general election in late 2026 or early 2027. Consequently, they lower their year-end Kuala Lumpur Composite Index target to 1730 from 1780. They warn that an early election could delay the government's structural reforms and heighten market volatility; as a result, they favor defensive stocks such as AMMB, Telekom Malaysia, and YTL Power International. The KLCI is flat at 1725.37. (yingxian.wong@wsj.com)
0227 GMT - The pass-through from earlier fuel price increases and rupiah weakness look milder than previously feared after Indonesia July's softer-than-expected inflation reading, Kenanga IB economists say in a note. However, they continue to expect price pressures to build over the remainder of the year, driven by higher fuel prices, a weak rupiah and resilient domestic demand. Kenanga maintains its 2026 Indonesia inflation estimate at 3.1%, amid higher fuel prices and weak rupiah. They expect Bank Indonesia to keep its policy rate unchanged at 5.75% in the near term, as inflation remains within target and the rupiah has stabilized around 18,000 against the U.S. dollar. The central bank is likely to remain cautious amid persistent external uncertainties and its focus on preserving rupiah stability, Kenanga adds. (yingxian.wong@wsj.com)
0124 GMT - Maybank's acquisition of the remaining stake in insurance unit Etiqa is a tactically positive move, giving the bank full control of a strategically important franchise while improving capital flexibility, Hong Leong IB analyst Raymond Ng says in a note. The deal could strengthen Maybank's bancassurance business by deepening cross-selling and streamlining regional insurance operations. Ng thinks execution will be key, particularly in lifting insurance penetration, improving return on equity and increasing dividend upstreaming from Etiqa over the medium term. He raises Maybank's 2026-2028 earnings forecasts by 1.4%-1.6% to factor in full contribution from Etiqa. Hong Leong raises Maybank's target price to 11.10 ringgit from 10.80 ringgit, while maintaining a hold rating on the stock. Shares are unchanged at 10.84 ringgit. (yingxian.wong@wsj.com)
0114 GMT - Maybank's proposed acquisition of the remaining stake in its insurance business looks positive, with the valuation considered fair relative to listed peer LPI Capital, Public Investment Bank analyst Wong Ling Ling says in a note. The lender plans to acquire the remaining 30.95% stake in Maybank Ageas from Belgian insurer Ageas for 4.83 billion ringgit, taking full ownership of Etiqa's operations in Malaysia and Singapore. The deal should strengthen Maybank's insurance franchise while creating cross-selling opportunities across its banking, wealth management and bancassurance businesses. The acquisition is expected to be earnings accretive, lifting net profit by about 2%, she adds. Public IB maintains an outperform rating on Maybank and keeps its target price at 11.90 ringgit. Shares are 0.2% lower at 10.82 ringgit.(yingxian.wong@wsj.com)
0056 GMT - Morgan Stanley analysts want much more disclosure from Australia's major banks on mortgage-market trends. With government making changes to property related tax concessions, the MS analysts expect investors to use this month's annual result announcement by Commonwealth Bank to pepper the market leader with questions on the level and mix of recent mortgage applications. They also anticipate questions on the response to policy changes from existing and potential property investors, lead indicators on draw-down conversions, and the likely impact of the changes on growth. More broadly, they don't expect Commonwealth, NAB, Westpac or ANZ to provide guidance on earnings, revenue, margins, or loan losses. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)
1552 GMT - Marriott International is set up to gain from newly revised deals with JPMorgan and American Express, Melius Research analysts say in a note. The new terms fuel fee growth in the second half of this year and the first half of 2027 before annualizing and reverting to a typical high-single-digit percentage growth rate, the analysts say. Over the medium-term, the new terms and uplift from Marriott's loyalty program should contribute $100 million to $125 million by 2028. The analysts say positive sentiment had already built around the new credit-card deals bringing growth.(katherine.hamilton@wsj.com)
1513 GMT - Bitcoin is trading up 0.4% to $63,712, managing to trade higher despite several sources of pressure. Strategy confirms a new sale of bitcoin, with 1,638 BTC sold at an average price of $63,957, worth roughly $105 million. This leaves Strategy with a stockpile of 842,138 BTC at an average price of $75,419. That's an unrealized loss of $9.9 billion for Strategy's bitcoin treasury. While previous sales of bitcoin announced by Strategy have pushed prices lower, fundamentals have shifted enough for bitcoin to stand firm this time. "Market conditions continue to improve beneath the surface," says Cex.io in a note, citing ETF inflows and lower liquidations. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1510 GMT - Issuance of new euro covered bonds is expected to remain relatively low in August as some market participants take a summer holiday, ING's Marine Leleux says in a note. Covered bonds are debt securities supplied by financial institutions and they are secured by high-quality assets such as mortgages or public loans. Gross covered-bond issuance in August could rise from July's level of 1 billion euro's ($1.15 billion) but this could be outpaced by covered-bond redemptions of 8.5 billion euros, Leleux says. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
1434 GMT - Banco BPM's decision to pull out of talks for a potential merger with fellow Italian bank Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena reinforces the industrial and financial rationale of a rival offer from bigger peer Intesa Sanpaolo, Equita Sim's Andrea Lisi says. Intesa's offer continues to represent the option with the greatest value-creation potential for the shareholders of both banks, the analyst says in a research note. While Monte dei Paschi is reportedly looking for alternatives to the Intesa offer, the value-creation potential of that bid will be difficult to replicate through alternative transactions, the analyst adds. Banco BPM shares rise 2.1% and Intesa's are up 1.7%, while Monte dei Paschi shares are little changed. (adria.calatayud@wsj.com)
1403 GMT - The housing market is settling into its expected summer slowdown, with sellers increasingly adjusting prices while buyer demand continues to hold up, Realtor.com says. The national median list price was $428,950 in July, essentially unchanged from June but down 2.4% from a year ago. The share of listings with a price reduction rose to 20%. Pending sales increased 1.3% year-over- year, though momentum has slowed from 4.1% in May and 3.7% in June. The median home spent 57 days on the market in July, four days longer than in June. Price cuts remain least common in the Northeast, at 13.7% of listings, and the Midwest, at 18.7%. Price-cut shares remain below last year's levels in the South, at 21.3%, and West, at 21.9%. (chris.wack@wsj.com)
1332 GMT - Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour says he believes New York's lawsuit against his company is driven by interests within the gambling industry. In an interview with CNBC, he compares the influence of prediction markets to Uber's impact on the taxi industry and Airbnb's impact on hotels. "You have an industry, the prediction market industry, that is disruptive," he says. "It's disrupting a legacy incumbent industry that is unhappy about that." New York's lawsuit argues that prediction markets are sports gambling disguised as legitimate trading, which would give the state's gambling commission authority to tax and regulate it.
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