Vegoils price commentary: CPO futures fall on profit-taking; CME soyoil extends decline amid biofuel demand uncertainty

Fastmarkets08-03 12:00

CPO futures closed the week in negative territory, as pre-weekend profit-taking and weakness in related oils added selling pressure. The most active October CPO futures contract on the Bursa Malaysia ...

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Bull 2X Shares","UGA":"United States Gasoline Fund LP","CORX":"2x Corn ETF"},"translate_title":"Vegoils 价格评论：CPO 期货因获利了结而下跌；由于生物燃料需求不确定性，芝加哥商品交易所大豆油继续下跌","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"BLCK":0.6,"USOI":0.9,"TILL":1.5,"UCO":0.6,"CRAK":1.5,"FAAR":0.71,"FUE":0.9,"DBE":0.9,"DUG":0.9,"PXE":0.9,"PXJ":0.9,"SCO":0.6,"FTXN":0.9,"CORX":1.5,"USO":0.9,"RJN":0.71,"USE":0.9,"GUSH":0.9,"USL":0.9,"EIA":1,"DWT":0.9,"MOO":1.5,"PDBA":1.5,"XOP":0.9,"OIH":0.9,"BWET":0.9,"FBZ":0.9,"SOYB":0.9,"OND":1,"WTIU":0.9,"IEO":0.9,"GCC":0.8,"CME":1.5,"DTO":0.8,"VDE":0.9,"RJA":1.5,"DRIP":0.9,"DBO":0.9,"ERX":0.9,"XES":0.9,"DBC":0.9,"OILK":0.9,"OILU":0.9,"OILT":0.9,"DIG":0.9,"XLE":0.9,"UGA":0.9,"IXC":0.9,"BNO":0.9,"DRLL":0.9},"content_text":"CPO futures closed the week in negative territory, as pre-weekend profit-taking and weakness in related oils added selling pressure.\nThe most active October CPO futures contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives fell by 0.88% to close at 4,642 ringgit ($1,137) per tonne, with the contract trading lower for most of the day and its intraday high just 3 ringgit per tonne above the previous day’s settlement of 4,683 ringgit per tonne at 4,686 ringgit per tonne.\nOn a weekly basis, the third month contract has fallen by 1.69% from the previous Friday’s settlement of 4,722 ringgit per tonne, breaking three weeks of consecutive gains, with losses from early in the week stemming from a fall in energy prices and the seesaw in crude oil also influencing CPO price movement during the week.\nNonetheless, persistent weakness in related oils, particularly in soybean oil has also kept pressure on palm oil prices.   \nCrude oil futures meanwhile traded in both directions on Friday, with both WTI and Brent crude slightly higher at time of BMD close after trading lower during Asia morning hours.\nChinese vegoils futures\nChinese vegoil futures closed broadly lower on Friday, with the most active palm olein futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange falling by 0.84% to close at 9,281 yuan ($1,375) per tonne, while the equivalent soybean oil contract slipped marginally by 0.06% to close at 8,389 yuan per tonne.\nThe September rapeseed oil futures contract on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, meanwhile, edged down by 0.02% to close at 9,894 yuan per tonne.\nA better export performance for July had little effect in lifting CPO futures but limited losses, with cargo surveyors Intertek Testing Services (ITS) and Amspec Agri Malaysia reporting full-July Malaysia exports at 19.5% and 12.06% higher from their respective June estimates to 1.6 million tonnes and 1.43 million tonnes respectively.\nFocus will shift toward full-July production estimates for Malaysia and industry supply and demand estimates expected next week which will guide trade direction, ahead of official data from the Malaysia Palm Oil Board (MPOB) due on August 10.\nProduction and exports in July are anticipated to increase from June, while inventories are expected to rise for a fourth consecutive month, largely due to higher beginning stocks.\nIn the cash market, CPO offers out of Indonesia for August shipment were at $1,197.50-1,200 per tonne FOB Indonesia, with buying ideas around $1,185 per tonne FOB Indonesia, while offers for September shipment were at $1,215-1,217.50 per tonne FOB Indonesia.\nOffers for August-shipment olein were at $1,127.50 per tonne FOB Indonesia, with buying ideas at $1,117.50-1,120 per tonne FOB Indonesia, while September shipment olein was offered around $1,155 per tonne FOB Indonesia.\nIn India, CPO for August shipment was also traded at $1,225 per tonne CFR east coast India and $1,227.50 per tonne CFR west coast India.\nOffers at the day’s close for August shipment were at $1,230 per tonne CFR WCI against bids of $1,225 per tonne CFR WCI, while offers to east coast India at $1,225 per tonne CFR ECI with bids at $1,220 per tonne CFR ECI.\nSoybean oil offers\nMeanwhile, soybean oil offers for August-September shipment were heard around $1,265 per tonne CFR WCI, with buying ideas around $1,250 per tonne CFR WCI and for August-December shipment at $1,260-1,263 per tonne CFR WCI, while September-December shipment soybean oil was offered around $1,275 per tonne CFR WCI. \nOffers for August-September shipment sunflower oil were at $1,500 per tonne CIF LW for Russia-origin material, while September-shipment sunflower oil from Argentina was offered at $1,465-1,470 per tonne CIF.\nAs of Friday, the spread between August-shipment CPO and soybean oil to India has narrowed by $5 per tonne compared with the previous week to $32.50 per tonne based on Fastmarkets’ data keeping palm relatively attractive to its rival. \nHowever, the discount flips for Q4 cargoes, with soybean oil offers for October-December at a $10 discount to palm oil.  \nIn the Americas, Chicago Mercantile Exchange soybean oil futures extended their downward movement and settled lower on Friday for the fifth consecutive session. Contracts followed the broader sell-off in the grain complex and weakness in related oils, while uncertainty over potential Small Refinery Exemptions (SREs) added concerns over future biofuel demand. \nThe September contract fell by 1.41% to 67.26 cents per lb, bringing its cumulative weekly drop to 8.45% since July 24, while the most-active December contract decreased by 0.58% to 66.90 cents per lb, down by 7.10% over the same period. The move ran counter higher crude oil prices and a weaker US dollar.\nME soybean oil futures remained under pressure from improved soybean weather forecasts in the US following overnight rainfall in the western Corn Belt. The energy feedstock underperformed soybeans, which edged down by 0.11% to $11.87 per bushel.\nUncertainty surrounding potential Small Refinery Exemptions (SREs) weighed on soybean oil prices, as the market assesses the extent of regulatory relief that may be granted by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Broader exemptions could reduce renewable fuel blending obligations and curb demand for soyoil from the US biofuels sector.\nHowever, data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) released on Friday pointed to continued strength in biofuel-related soyoil demand, with record consumption in May and further growth expected to be supported by higher blending mandates under the US Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) for 2026 and 2027.\nCrude oil futures\nCrude oil futures, meanwhile, recovered and settled higher amid ongoing tensions in the Middle East. The US-Iranian war keeps driving volatility to the energy market and bringing disruption risks for the oil supply flow. Brent crude rose by 1.21% day on day to $87.93 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate increased by 3.61% to $86.77 per barrel. \nIn related markets, CME soymeal futures also moved lower, tracking weakness in competing grains such as wheat and corn. The September contract fell by 0.82% to $314.90 per short ton, while the most-active December contract declined by 0.50% to $321.20 per ton. Over the past seven days, both contracts have retreated by 4.81% and 4.18% respectively. \nIn the physical market in South America, soyoil bases moved higher on friday. The September basis in Argentina was assessed at a discount of 13.85 cents per lb to September futures, up by 1.25 cents per lb day on day, while in Brazil the corresponding basis was assessed at a discount of 13.7 cents per lb to September futures, 0.8 cents per lb above the previous assessment.\nIn the cash market, the Brazilian September soymeal basis increased by $3 per short ton from the latest assessment to a premium of $15 per short ton over the same futures contract.\nIn Argentina, the corresponding soybean meal basis rose by $1.50 per ton against the previous assessment to a premium of $7.50 per ton over September futures.\nAs of 5:30pm Central European Time, Euronext November rapeseed futures were trading at €592 ($597), down by €7.75 per tonne from the last market close.\nFOB Rotterdam rapeseed oil (RSO) prices broadly declined along the curve on Friday amid a quiet market tone.Prices were pressured by weakness in the wider vegetable oils complex, with palm futures in Malaysia and US soybean oil futures both lower at the time of writing. \nEuropean sunflower oil prices were mixed during the Friday session, while rapeseed futures in Paris also moved lower, adding further pressure to RSO values. \nRSO offers for August were heard at €1,300 per tonne, with bids at €1,250 per tonne, while offers for September were heard at €1,250-1,255 per tonne, with buy-side interest at €1,210-1,230 per tonne.\nOffers for October were indicated at €1,220-1,225 per tonne, with buy-side interest at €1,180 per tonne. \nDown the curve, November-December-January (NDJ) 2027 offers stood at €1,150-1,160 per tonne, with bids at €1,145-1,148 per tonne. \nPrices for FOB sunflower oil (SFO) across six EU ports were mixed at the end of the trading week, rising for nearby periods amid higher reported offers on the day, while remaining slightly weaker further out the curve. Market activity stayed subdued, with no fresh trades reported out in the open.\nAugust offers and bids remained absent during the session, while September offers were reported at $1,525-1,530 per tonne, also with no bids heard. \nFor the October-November-December (OND) period, offers were heard at $1,435 per tonne, with bids at $1,395-1,410 per tonne. \nAs for January-February-March (JFM) 2027 offers were heard at $1,390 per tonne, with bids a $1,345-1,355 per tonne.","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":false,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"isLaohu8Offline":false,"tenantId":"TBGLOBAL","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.47.0","shortVersion":"4.47.0","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2656373369","isCrawlerRequest":true}