One Thing I'm Watching: the Yen Bears

Dow Jones08-03

Here's one thing to watch in FX markets after Washington and Tokyo's rare joint yen intervention: Where speculative bets against the Japanese currency go from here.

Hedge funds and other speculators had been betting big against the yen for much of this year-but that could change if the yen continues to strengthen, strategists say: It could prompt some investors to unwind their shorts, which would in turn further boost the yen in the short term, a team of Barclays strategists wrote today.

It's worth noting that a previous intervention from Japan earlier this year did little to stem bearish bets against the currency. But this time, Washington's backing could lend the effort more weight.

"The threat of further joint intervention and a faster pace of BoJ hikes should provide more support for the yen, and discourage speculators from running elevated short yen positions," said Lee Hardman of MUFG.

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