Below are the most important global events likely to affect FX and bond markets in the week starting Aug. 3.
U.S. monthly jobs data for July will provide the focus of attention as investors gauge the prospects for interest rates over the next few months.
The Federal Reserve left interest rates on hold at its recent meeting, with Chairman Kevin Warsh giving away few clues on the prospects of rate increases in future, making key economic data releases all the more important.
In Europe, further economic data in the eurozone will provide a steer on how the region is faring amid elevated energy prices. In Asia, China's trade and inflation data will test regional demand and export momentum, while regional PMIs will show if manufacturing activity has continued to show resilience in the face of global uncertainties.
Central bank decisions are due in India, Brazil and Mexico, while investors will continue to watch developments in the conflict between U.S. and Iran and moves in oil prices.
U.S.
Nonfarm payrolls data for July on Friday will be the highlight of a busy week for U.S. economic data.
Investors have already scaled back expectations for interest-rate hikes by the Federal Reserve after the central bank left interest rates on hold. Fed Chairman Warsh stuck to his pledge not to provide forward guidance while suggesting that financial markets were already tightening financial conditions via higher bond yields.
Recent U.S. jobs data have been weak and further evidence of this could cause investors to reduce rate-hike expectations even further. Having fully priced a rate increase in September prior to the Fed's recent meeting, money markets now price a 68% chance of this, LSEG data showed.
"Any disappointment in U.S. data should lead to a larger dovish repricing than before, particularly if oil prices come under renewed pressure," ING currency analyst Francesco Pesole said in a note.
Markets are concerned that the Fed "may be reluctant to translate its price stability rhetoric into effective policy tightening," he said.
Ahead of Friday's data, JOLTS job openings data Tuesday, ADP private payrolls figures for July on Wednesday and jobless claims figures Thursday will give further clues on the health of the jobs market.
In addition, the ISM surveys for July on manufacturing on Monday and services on Wednesday will give a picture of how business activity is faring in the face of high energy prices.
U.S. trade data for June are also due Tuesday.
The Treasury's quarterly refunding announcement with borrowing estimates is scheduled for Monday and the refunding policy statement and auction details are due on Wednesday.
The substantial rise in Treasury yields across maturities is likely the most critical factor arguing against any policy moves toward raising supply of notes or bonds, or even simply shifting forward guidance, HSBC U.S. rates strategist Dhiraj Narula said in a note.
"Long-dated rates sit at multidecade highs, and we expect policymakers to remain wary of shifts that would drive up term premium and raise borrowing costs further," he said.
There are no sales of notes or bonds due during the week.
Canada
Canadian jobs data for July are due Friday and will provide further clues on how well the economy is performing in the face of high energy costs and U.S. tariffs.
These figures will follow recent strong Canadian gross domestic product data for the second quarter, which analysts said could increase the prospects of a rate hike from the Bank of Canada this year.
Canadian money markets currently price around a 70% chance of a quarter-point rate hike in December and fully price a move in January 2027, LSEG data showed.
Canadian trade data for June are also due Tuesday.
Latin America
Brazil's central bank announces its policy decision on Wednesday, followed by Mexico's central bank, Banxico, on Thursday.
The drop in Brazil's July midmonth inflation reading to 4.5% from 4.8% a month earlier provides scope for the central bank to deliver another 25 basis-point interest-rate cut to 14.00% at the upcoming meeting, Capital Economics economist Liam Peach said in a note.
However, the bar for further rate cuts in Brazil over the rest of the year has risen given energy-related inflation risks, he said.
In Mexico, interest rates are likely to be left unchanged at 6.50%.
Policymakers could strike a less "dovish" tone, however, given the stronger-than-expected 1.5% quarter-on-quarter expansion in Mexico's gross domestic product in the second quarter, Capital Economics economist Kimberley Sperrfechter said in a note.
The balance of probabilities looks tilted toward a rate rise over the next six months or so, she said.
Mexico's central bank said it was ending its policy easing cycle in May when it cut rates by 25 basis points.
Eurozone
Eurozone data will continue to be watched closely as accelerating energy costs remain a drag on the region's economy due to the military conflict in the Middle East and disruptions to energy supply.
"In the end, the duration of the conflict will be key," Marcus Widen and Pia Fromlet, economists at SEB, said in a note. "Most recent developments have increased inflation risks," they said.
July manufacturing purchasing managers' data for Spain, Italy, France, Germany and the eurozone are due on Monday, followed by purchasing managers' data for services on Wednesday.
Spanish unemployment figures for July and Italian retail sales for June are due on Tuesday, followed by eurozone producer prices for June Wednesday.
Spanish and Italian industrial production for June are due Thursday, alongside eurozone retail trade data. German manufacturing orders and industrial production figures for June are due on Thursday and Friday, respectively.
Germany will auction September 2028-dated treasury notes, or Schatz, on Tuesday, and April 2029-, February 2035- and August 2053-dated green bonds on Wednesday. Other countries issuing bonds are Austria on Tuesday, and Spain and France on Thursday.
U.K.
The U.K. data calendar is relatively quiet, with the final release of the manufacturing purchasing managers' index for July due on Monday, followed by the equivalent reading for services on Wednesday.
The Bank of England kept interest rates on hold at 3.75% at its recent meeting. Although three out of nine policymakers favored raising rates by a quarter-point, the BOE said in its statement that there was no indication of second-round effects on inflation from elevated energy prices so far. This has caused investors to cut back their expectations of BOE rate rises later in 2026.
Markets currently price in a total of 30 basis points of BOE rate hikes this year, down from 37 basis points priced in prior to the meeting, LSEG data show.
On Tuesday, the BOE will publish its Asset Purchase Facility Quarterly Report, which outlines the bank's stock of gilt holdings and the changes from April 1 to June 30.
The U.K. will sell March 2032 gilts via auction on Tuesday.
Scandinavia
Denmark, Sweden and Norway will hold bond auctions on Wednesday.
Czech Republic
The Czech National Bank is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged Thursday after raising rates by 25 basis points to 3.75% in June.
While the CNB still appears to be attentive to inflation risks, most board members don't seem to be in a hurry to tighten monetary conditions further, Goldman Sachs economists said in a note.
Recent comments and the minutes of the June meeting struck a cautious tone, presenting additional rate rises as probable but leaning toward a pause at the upcoming meeting until more data are received, they said.
June's inflation print came in lower than expected, reinforcing this patient approach. Inflation has remained relatively subdued in the face of the energy price shock due to weak prewar inflation momentum and a stable koruna, they said.
"[June's] hike most likely represented a one-time precautionary move--not the start of a hiking cycle--while the market is expecting the policy rate to be tightened further over the coming year, to between 4.25-4.50%."
Japan
The Bank of Japan on Wednesday is set to release the minutes of its policy-setting meeting in June, when it raised rates to a three-decade high of 1%, as the yen continues to face pressure despite speculation that government officials stepped in to prop up the weakening currency.
Auto sales figures for July and household spending data for June are also due on Monday and Friday, respectively.
The Ministry of Finance will hold government bond auctions during the week: It will sell about 2.6 trillion yen of 10-year JGBs on Tuesday and around 600 billion yen of 30-year sovereign debt on Thursday.
Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has reportedly indicated that the reduction in the food consumption tax will be approved by the Cabinet during the week, the strategists added.
Australia / New Zealand
In Australia, the data calendar is light, as markets look ahead to a policy meeting by the Reserve Bank of Australia closer to the middle of August. Following news of tame second-quarter inflation numbers, more forecasters have abandoned calls for a further interest-rate rise in August, while few say they are relaxed about the outlook for price pressures given the recent rise in world oil prices.
In New Zealand, the second-quarter employment report on Thursday will be the highlight of an otherwise quiet week for the region.
The unemployment rate is expected to tick up to 5.4% in the quarter, highlighting the still fragile state of the economy that is otherwise battling elevated inflation and the threat of further interest-rate increases.
Still, the jobs data will likely confirm that the war in the Middle East hasn't hit the New Zealand economy too hard thus far. With employment not keeping pace with population growth, economists expect to see the unemployment rate rise over time, with wage growth remaining subdued.
China
China is in for a busy week, with a series of key data releases, such as trade and inflation.
On Friday, China's trade data will provide fresh insight into the country's widening trade imbalance, which has fueled tensions with major trading partners such as the European Union in recent months.
Economists at ING expect both exports and imports to remain robust, forecasting export growth of 28% and import growth of nearly 34%, resulting in a trade surplus of $112.6 billion.
Technology-related goods will likely continue to drive trade, ING said. Markets will also be watching for signs of a recovery in China's oil imports or further stagnation, as weaker imports have likely helped keep a lid on oil prices since the start of the Middle East earlier this year.
Beijing will also release July inflation data on Sunday, as policymakers continue to grapple with a deflationary environment marked by persistent price wars and weak consumer spending.
The decline in June's CPI compared with May signaled a worrying trend, suggesting China's efforts to stimulate demand may be losing momentum.
Finally, private surveys on China's purchasing manufacturing index, as well as readings for nonmanufacturing activity, will be released throughout the week, after the economy saw weaker-than-expected official prints for July.
Investors will be watching to see whether the private-sector gauges, which includes the manufacturing PMI set for Monday and the services PMI set for Wednesday, will continue to outperform the official data, which came in below market expectations.
Asian PMIs
A string of manufacturing PMI readings for export powerhouses Taiwan, Japan and South Korea, as well as Southeast Asian economies are due Monday. The surveys will be closely watched as manufacturers continue to face cost pressures.
Flash July PMIs showed inflation remained elevated but manufacturing activity was supported largely by strong AI hardware demand, which has been benefiting a narrow range of economies like Taiwan and South Korea. The flash data also showed that manufacturers remained cautious as the outlook for future output remains clouded by persistent geopolitical uncertainty.
India
The Reserve Bank of India will deliver its closely-watched monetary policy decision on Wednesday, as the central bank grapples with inflationary risks against the backdrop of economic uncertainties for growth.
With India's average consumer price index for the April-June period coming in below forecasts, the RBI may be prompted to lower its inflation projection for the current fiscal year, avoiding the need for rate hikes for now, Citi Research analysts said.
However, the odds of the RBI raising rates later in the year are increasing, said ANZ Research's Dhiraj Nim.
The central bank may be waiting to see stronger signs of second-order impact of higher oil prices to consider rate hikes amid heightened uncertainty, Nim said. ANZ expects the first 25-basis-point rate hike to be delivered in December, though it could come sooner if economic conditions deteriorate.
Indonesia
Indonesia's inflation data for July set for Monday is expected to stay modest at 3.32%, ANZ economists said. Administered-price inflation is expected to ease, as lower fuel prices reduce transport costs, ANZ added, noting that a weak rupiah and cost pass-through should keep core inflation firm.
Indonesia's June trade data will also be published on the same day, with the nation's merchandise trade deficit expected to have narrowed modestly, Barclays said. The reading may suggest some improvement in the country's external trade balance despite a challenging global backdrop, it added.
Indonesia's second-quarter economic growth is expected to have remained resilient, supported mainly by domestic demand, Bank Indonesia said in its recent policy meeting.
Government spending, including civil servant bonuses and social assistance, helped underpin consumption, while investment was driven by infrastructure projects under national priority programs, the central bank noted. Barclays expects second-quarter GDP growth to come in at 5.7% on year.
South Korea
South Korea's headline inflation is expected to have eased to below 3% in July due to lower energy prices and electricity tariffs. Data are due Tuesday.
The median forecast in a Wall Street Journal poll of 11 economists is for a 2.9% on-year rise in the benchmark consumer-price index, slowing from the 3.2% increase in June and 3.1% in May.
On a monthly basis, the index likely edged down 0.1% in July, the poll showed.
A decline in retail gasoline prices and a cut in electricity rates are among the deflationary factors, Citigroup economist Jin-Wook Kim said. Still, price increases in restaurants, tourism-related services and core goods continue to fuel inflationary pressures, Kim added.
Taiwan
Taiwan's July inflation, to be published Thursday, likely remained sticky after the headline print rose above the 2% threshold in two consecutive months.
Inflation likely remained elevated at 2.5% for the month, said DBS economists. The rebound in oil prices amid renewed Middle East tensions is expected to keep costs for imported raw materials high, while the severe typhoon in July is also expected to push up fresh food prices, DBS added.
Taiwan is also set to release July exports data on Friday. The island's exports likely continued to be supported by AI infrastructure demand.
Exports likely grew 35.3% compared to a year ago and imports increased 48.7%, resulting in a trade surplus of $13.8 billion, said ANZ's Vicky Xiao Zhou.
Export growth should remain robust, driven by continued AI-related demand and inventory restocking ahead of the second half of the year, ANZ added.
Thailand, Philippines
Inflation data for Thailand and the Philippines, both due Wednesday, are likely to have remained elevated.
The Philippines central bank said price pressures are seen to stem from increases in domestic petroleum pump prices, electricity rates, fish prices as well as the currency's weakening against the greenback.
Lower prices of key commodities such as rice and meat, however, are expected to offset the higher cost pressures, Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas said.
In Thailand, headline inflation likely accelerated to 3.0% in July from 2.4% in June, said DBS economists. The rise in consumer prices is likely due to firmer food price increases amid low base effects, and higher core inflation due to the pass-through of energy costs, DBS said.
The Philippines will also release second-quarter gross domestic product print on Friday. Growth is likely to remain subdued, as higher oil prices and continued political uncertainty keep investment activity muted, said ING economists.
Government spending should begin to recover after contracting in the second half of 2025, offering some support to domestic demand, ING added. Export growth is also expected to strengthen relative to the first quarter, with the Philippines gaining from a deeper integration into the AI supply chain, ING said.
"However, higher oil and nonoil import prices are likely to weigh on the trade balance, resulting in a smaller net contribution from external demand to overall GDP growth," ING added.
Any references to days are in local times.
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