TradingKey - On July 31 Eastern Time, Micron ( MU) fell more than 5% in intraday trading today after surging 18% yesterday, trading at $530 as of press time.
It is reported that Michael Burry, the real-life figure behind the movie "The Big Short", stated on Substack that he has increased his short position in Micron at around $880.
Burry pointed out concerns over artificial intelligence valuations, noting that the price of Nvidia's five-year credit default swaps is rising "parabolically" due to "circular spending on an unprecedented scale." He had previously stated that Nvidia's future revenue is heavily reliant on off-balance-sheet financing arrangements.
Meanwhile, Apple CEO Tim Cook likened the soaring memory prices to a "once-in-a-hundred-year flood" and hinted that the DRAM industry needs more suppliers.
Cook said that there are currently three major suppliers in the DRAM market. "Obviously, having more suppliers would be a positive for Apple, both by providing security on the supply side and perhaps helping on the pricing front. We are evaluating all options."
Cook's remarks point directly to the highly concentrated nature of the global DRAM industry. As a core downstream buyer, Apple clearly views expanding its supplier base as a dual benefit for supply chain stability and cost optimization. Its statement of "evaluating all options" sends a clear signal that the company is exploring supply chain diversification and optimizing its procurement system. It also reflects, from another angle, downstream leading clients' long-term demands for supply security and bargaining power under the three-supplier monopoly in the memory chip market.
Micron 2-hour stock chart, Source: TradingView
Looking at Micron Technology's stock chart, the price entered a recovery phase after rebounding from its recent low of $737.88. Despite yesterday's 18% surge, it is still overall moving within a descending channel. The stock faced resistance as it rebounded to around $840. Although it has stabilized in the short term compared to its low, it has not yet broken out of its medium-term weak pattern. Currently, this represents a verification period between an oversold rebound and a trend reversal.
In terms of moving averages, short-term moving averages show signs of recovery at lower levels, but the price remains below several medium-term moving averages of around $850–$915 and is suppressed by the upper boundary of the descending channel, indicating that the overhead trapped shares and trend pressure have not been fully digested.
As for the upside, near-term overhead resistance is concentrated around $842.47. If this level is breached, focus will shift to the resistance of the short-term moving averages near $850–$851, as well as the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level at $874.78. Only if it successfully and effectively breaks through $842.47 and further reclaims $874.78 can the rebound be expected to transition from a technical recovery into a more sustainable trend improvement.
Regarding the downside, attention should first be paid to the 0.236 Fibonacci level ($802.50), which serves as an important defense line for the short-term rebound structure. If the price continues to fluctuate above this level, the rebound structure can still be sustained. If it falls below this price, the downside target will extend to the recent low of $737.88.
Overall, despite Micron's single-day surge of 18%, the descending channel has not been broken, and the Fibonacci resistance near $842.47 is in convergence with the short-term moving averages. If the stock price falls back below $802.50, it would indicate that the low-level recovery has failed, and the market may retest the previous low of $737.88. Even if the stock price moves above $842.47 in the short term, before reclaiming $874.78 and the upper boundary of the channel, the gains should still be interpreted as a technical rebound in a weak market environment rather than a trend reversal.
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