The latest Market Talks covering Energy markets. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
0242 GMT - Palm oil rises in early Asian trade, driven by stronger soybean oil prices overnight on the Chicago Board of Trade. However, CPO futures could trade rangebound with a downside bias after President Trump urged Iran to sign a peace agreement, PhillipCapital says in a note. Easing geopolitical risks reduces the risk premium in crude oil, a key driver of palm oil prices, as biofuel demand tends to weaken when energy prices decline. PhillipCapital expects prices to face resistance at 4,780 ringgit a ton and find support at 4,433 ringgit a ton. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for October delivery is up 28 ringgit at 4,657 ringgit a ton. (yingxian.wong@wsj.com)
0239 GMT - Malaysia's equity market is expected to remain volatile amid domestic political uncertainty and geopolitical risks, Affin Hwang IB analysts say in a note. They downgrade Malaysia's equity market rating to neutral from overweight after Barisan Nasional and Perikatan Nasional's landslide victory in the Negeri Sembilan state election. This victory has raised the likelihood of an early general election in late 2026 or early 2027. Consequently, they lower their year-end Kuala Lumpur Composite Index target to 1730 from 1780. They warn that an early election could delay the government's structural reforms and heighten market volatility; as a result, they favor defensive stocks such as AMMB, Telekom Malaysia, and YTL Power International. The KLCI is flat at 1725.37. (yingxian.wong@wsj.com)
0133 GMT - There are encouraging signs that Coronado Global Resources' reset is delivering a better operational performance, says UBS analyst Lachlan Shaw. However, consistency is now required to make the risk-reward more attractive, he says. "Liquidity risk has reduced after the quarter, but the balance sheet remains sensitive to met coal prices, operational disruption and working-capital absorption," says Shaw. UBS has a neutral rating and A$0.21/share target on Coronado. Shares are down 1.4% at roughly A$0.17. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)
2349 GMT - Origin Energy's maiden guidance for earnings from its Energy Markets in FY 2027 could be higher than investors expect. Still, Morgan Stanley says Origin and rival power generator AGL are its least-preferred stocks among Australian utilities because of lower wholesale electricity prices. MS expects Origin's Energy Markets business to achieve Ebitda of A$1.688 billion in FY 2027. That's above consensus forecasts for A$1.627 billion. It would also represent a broadly in-line outcome with FY 2026 where MS projects Energy Markets Ebitda of A$1.683 billion. Origin is due to report its FY 2026 result on Aug. 13. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)
2340 GMT - Oil falls in early Asian trade amid prospects for reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a key waterway through which one-fifth of the world's oil is transported. Iran appears to be "nearing an understanding with Oman over the Strait of Hormuz," Tickmill's Joseph Dahrieh says in an email. Also, "President Trump refrained from ordering another round of military operations in the Middle East, reinforcing hopes for a diplomatic resolution," the managing director notes. However, "Iran refuted the existence of talks with the U.S., which could still limit the extent of the pullback in prices," Dahrieh adds. Front-month WTI crude oil futures are down 0.6% at $79.88 a barrel. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)
1917 GMT - U.S. natural gas futures make a modest advance with temperatures expected to heat up into next week, favoring power-sector demand. "Although heat has intensified across Texas and overall gas demand is approaching its strongest levels of the season, the market remains focused on healthy storage inventories, softer summer LNG feedgas, and power generation demand that continues to trail recent years," Andy Huenefeld of Pinebrook Energy Advisors says in anote. At the same time, "the approaching shoulder season is increasingly coming into focus," he adds. Nymex natural gas settles up 1.2% at $2.781/mmBtu.(anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
1910 GMT - Oil futures fall after the U.S. suspended plans for major attacks against Iran, while expectations of a negotiated solution to the conflict remain in question. "Previous negotiations have failed to produce a comprehensive agreement, and any diplomatic setback could reignite hostilities and the geopolitical risk premium," says Nikos Tzabouras of Tradu. A deal to restore traffic through the strait could lead to deeper declines, while continued shipping disruptions and new risks in Red Sea leave the door open to further gains, he adds. WTI settles down 5.1% at $80.34 a barrel and Brent falls 4.7% to $83.77. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
1812 GMT - Oil futures are lower after President Trump called off planned attacks on Iran to give space for talks, although Iran says it's only talking with Oman about control of the Strait of Hormuz. "The move down was a little bit unwarranted, because nothing has changed," says Tracy Shuchart of NinjaTrader Group. "It's the same problem that we keep coming up with. Iran says they want to have control of the strait, and charge some kind of toll with the U.S. administration saying that's not going to happen." Oil prices are still likely to go higher, as a solution to the conflict looks no closer after five months of the strait being closed, she adds. "The situation has gotten worse, not better." WTI is off 5.3% at $80.18 a barrel and Brent is down 4.7% at $83.74. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
1432 GMT - Dubai stocks lead major Gulf equity markets higher after President Trump called off planned strikes on Iran and said peace talks would resume Monday. The Dubai Financial Market General Index rises 1.4%, Saudi Arabia's Tadawul All Share Index gains 1.1%, Qatar's QE index adds 0.8% and Abu Dhabi's benchmark index is up 0.3%. Easing geopolitical risk, lower oil prices and strong regional earnings are supporting the relief rally, though its sustainability will depend on further stability and continued earnings strength, says Mazen Abou Ismail, head of trading desk at FFA Private Bank Dubai. (farhan.rafid@wsj.com)
1405 GMT - The Hungarian forint stands to benefit the most among its central European peers from hopes for Middle East diplomacy due to its sensitivity to global risk sentiment, ING's Frantisek Taborsky says in a note. "The lack of further escalation points to a more constructive mood in the days ahead, while new highs in euro-dollar should support some gains in Central and Eastern European currencies." The euro falls 0.2% to 363.75 forints. It reached a one-week high of 364.94 on Friday, LSEG data show. The forint's decline Friday was driven by risk aversion and Hungary's temporary closure of a nuclear power plant which could affect both industrial production and energy imports, Taborsky says. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
1340 GMT - U.S. natural gas futures edge up in early trading with above normal temperatures likely to support power-sector demand into next week. Next week "may prove the last best chance for national cooling demand this summer before underlying normals begin to wane seasonally into late August," Eli Rubin of EBW Analytics says in a note. Commitment of traders data for the week ended July 28 showed an increase in speculator short positions. "The build-up to-date has yet to result in a substantial short-covering event," and while risks are increasing "there are few obvious near-term bullish catalysts on the horizon," Rubin adds. Nymex natural gas is up 0.8% at $2.769/mmBtu. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
1321 GMT - CBOT grains are mostly lower premarket, with most-active corn futures down 0.5% and soybeans sliding 0.7%. Grains are taking a cue from the big dip seen in crude oil prices--down 6.7% to below $80 a barrel. "The focus remains on the war fronts and mostly on a more optimistic outlook for the Strait and Iran, with negotiations at least scheduled for this afternoon," says Matt Zeller of StoneX in a note. Grains and oil are connected via grain usage as a feedstock for renewable fuels. Wheat is higher premarket, with that most-active contract up 0.2%.
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