The latest Market Talks covering Commodities. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
0244 GMT - Copper is higher in early Asian trading, driven by investors' concerns about potential U.S. tariffs. "Speculation that the U.S. will impose a tariff on copper imports has driven U.S. imports of the metal to more than 200,000 tons in July," ANZ research analysts say in commentary. This marks the biggest monthly inflow since 2014, they note. The three-month LME copper contract is 0.35% higher at $14,160.00 a ton. (tracy.qu@wsj.com)
0241 GMT - Palm oil falls in early Asian trade, weighed by lower soybean oil prices overnight on the Chicago Board of Trade, PhillipCapital says in a note. However, a slightly weaker ringgit against the dollar could provide support to sentiment, as it makes the commodity more affordable for foreign currency buyers, it adds. PhillipCapital expects prices to face resistance at 4,780 ringgit a ton and find support at 4,433 ringgit a ton. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for October delivery is down 11 ringgit at 4,691 ringgit a ton.(yingxian.wong@wsj.com)
0231 GMT - Gold's near-term momentum appears to be improving, two strategists at OCBC Group Research say in a research report. Daily chart shows gold's momentum is mildly bullish with initial resistance at $4,333.00 an ounce, the strategists note. This level represents 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the precious metal's fall from its high to its low so far this year, the strategists say. Also providing modest sentiment boost, there are reports that "the Bank of Korea is preparing to purchase domestically produced gold for the first time in 13 years and that they had recently begun buying gold ETF," they add. Spot gold is 1.0% higher at $4,293.64 an ounce. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)
0030 GMT - Gold advances in early Asian trade after gaining overnight on a softer dollar and lower Treasury yields. Efforts to resolve the Middle East crisis will remain the main driver for the precious metal, which has tumbled throughout the conflict as the oil shock spurred rate-hike views and haven flows strengthened the dollar. Progress toward a resolution could lower bond yields and benefit gold, while any setback could spark demand for the greenback and weigh on the precious metal, says Konstantinos Chrysikos at Kudo.com. Markets are still pricing in a hike at the Fed's next meeting, but the odds of a hold are rising--a shift that could support bullion, he says. The coming U.S. jobs data could influence whether more dovish views gather traction. Spot gold is up 0.6% to $4,276.31 an ounce. (fabiana.negrinochoa@wsj.com)
2331 GMT - The start of construction of NexGen Energy's Rook I uranium project in Canada could put the company in takeover crosshairs, suggests Shaw & Partners. Analyst Andrew Hines says NexGen is entering its next phase as a company. Construction brings a different form of risk and the market's attention will shift to execution, Shaw says. "It is also likely to see NexGen come under increasing scrutiny from strategic buyers," Shaw says. "Rook I is a world class asset that would fit into any major mining company's portfolio." Rook I has the potential to generate annual Ebitda of more than C$3 billion. That would make it one of the most profitable mines in the world, in any commodity, Shaw says. It retains a "buy" call on NexGen. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)
1945 GMT - Live cattle futures settle up 0.7% to $2.2945 a pound. Consumer demand has been a question for beef amid the high prices shoppers have to pay. But another factor driving cattle trade is the competition between meatpackers and cattle producers to see who can get the upper hand in the market. "This is a battle of attrition between producers and packers to see who can outlast the other," says Chris Swift of Swift Trading Co. "This week may be a win for producers, but I think it will difficult getting more." Lean hog futures settle down 1.5% to 83.075 cents a pound. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1904 GMT - Oil futures end little changed in a choppy session as Iran says it has agreed with Oman on a shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz, but that safe passage will depend on third parties not obstructing the process, an apparent reference to the U.S. "The deal to open the Strait of Hormuz just got closer to reality," Mizuho's Robert Yawger says in a note. "Perhaps the biggest question is whether Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps are on board with the agreement," he adds, noting that IRGC breached the June agreement by shooting at ships in the strait. WTI settles down 0.7% at $75.22 a barrel and Brent inches up 0.1% to $79.45 a barrel. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
1845 GMT - U.S. natural gas futures edge up in rangebound trading ahead of the EIA's weekly storage report. Comfortable storage levels, with inventories more than 6% above the five-year average, have kept a lid on prices even with hot summer weather driving power-sector demand for gas. Analysts in a WSJ survey expect a 31 Bcf storage build for last week, which would extend the inventory surplus to 193 Bcf from 185 Bcf the week before. "A result below 30 Bcf could offer prices some support, but an in-line or larger build would reinforce the market's focus on elevated storage as summer demand approaches its seasonal decline," Gelber & Associates says in a note. Nymex natural gas settles up 0.2% at $2.688/mmBtu.(anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
1811 GMT - Analysts with Hedgepoint Global say that they expect Brazil's corn output to be around 140 million metric tons this year. That would be 2 million tons-more than forecast by the USDA in its last WASDE report. "The consultancy maintains a positive revision bias in August, as the second crop delivered favorable results in several states despite the problems recorded in Goiás," says the firm in a research note. Last month, Brazilian crop agency Conab forecast corn production at a record high of 141.73 million tons. Any weather stress seen in Brazilian corn appears limited. "There are no signs of major availability issues in the country," says the firm. CBOT grain futures are mixed in late trading, with corn down 1%, soybeans off 0.2%, but wheat up 0.9%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1743 GMT - StoneX projecting a 1.8 bushel per acre increase in corn yields from where the USDA saw them in July triggered a slide in most-active corn futures. "The larger yield figure in corn was a bearish surprise and has weighed on values despite a private export sales announcement," says Brian Hoops of Midwest Market Solutions. StoneX's estimate pegged the average corn yield at 184.8 bushels an acre, versus the USDA's last forecast of 183 bushels an acre. Hoops also points to temperate weather forecasts for Midwest growing areas as keeping stress on crops limited. Most-active corn falls 1.1%, while soybeans are down 0.4%. Wheat is up 0.9%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1738 GMT - CBOT grain futures, particularly in the case of corn, may push lower ahead of next week's WASDE report. "The trade continues to be primarily led by updated weather models, and it seems futures may be wanting to test some key support levels before the August WASDE," says AgMarket.net in a note. The exception is with wheat, although the firm also notes that geopolitical volatility has played less of a role this week than it did last week. Most-active corn futures are down 1.1%, while soybeans fall 0.3% and wheat is up 1%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1528 GMT - Gold prices jump 4% on a weaker U.S. dollar and lower Treasury yields, while traders closely watch developments in the Middle East and U.S. data for cues on the monetary policy outlook. In midmorning U.S. trading, New York gold futures are up 4% to $4,315.90 a troy ounce, while the U.S. dollar index is down 0.1% to 99.17, making dollar-priced bullion more affordable for overseas buyers. Renewed diplomatic efforts to end the Iran war have pushed Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, below $80 a barrel, easing fears over energy-driven inflation and interest-rate increases. According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are now pricing in a nearly 57% chance of a September hike.
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