The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
2115 ET - New Zealand's unemployment rate jumped to its highest level in just over a decade in 2Q, but the move is a bit puzzling given evidence of emerging strength elsewhere in the economy, says Ben Jarman, an economist at JP Morgan. Employment has actually accelerated relative to working age population growth in recent quarters, he says. Still, the data will likely give pause to some on the Reserve Bank of New Zealand rate-setting committee, he adds. Jarman maintains his view that the RBNZ will tighten again in September, before pausing at the following meeting.(james.glynn@wsj.com; X @JamesGlynnWSJ)
2014 ET - Japanese stocks are higher thanks to renewed hopes for a U.S.-Iran deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Electronics stocks are leading gains. The dollar is at 157.66 yen, compared with Y157.69 as of Tuesday's Tokyo stock market close. Investors are focusing on developments in the Middle East after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Tuesday the U.S. could reach a deal with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz "today or tomorrow." Japanese corporate earnings are also being closely watched. The Nikkei Stock Average is up 2.3% at 65456.79. (kosaku.narioka@wsj.com; @kosakunarioka)
2011 ET - Asian currencies consolidate against the dollar in early trade, but may strengthen on hopes for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz which could bolster appetite for risky assets. "U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent said that a deal to reopen the strait was possible 'today or tomorrow,' and Qatar confirmed a proposal had been drafted," two members of CBA's Global Economic & Markets Research say in a research report. There's "stronger risk sentiment," the members add. The U.S. dollar is little changed at 157.69 yen and is 0.1% lower at 1,427.80 won, while the Australian dollar is steady at US$0.7047, according to LSEG data. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)
2003 ET - JGBs are mixed in early Tokyo trade, but may track overnight price gains in U.S. Treasurys. JGBs and Treasurys tend to move in tandem. JGB prices may also be buoyed by the ongoing decline in crude oil prices that usually alleviates inflationary pressure in Japan and might reduce the urgency of the BOJ to raise rates quickly. "Markets looked to signs of progress towards a narrow deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz," NAB's senior economist Taylor Nugent says in commentary. Thbe two-year JGB yield is unchanged at 1.565% and the 10-year JGB yield is 1.5 bps lower at 2.830%. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)
1946 ET - Japanese stocks may rise on renewed hopes for a U.S.-Iran deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Nikkei futures are up 2.6% at 65615 on the SGX. The dollar is at 157.80 yen, compared with Y157.69 as of Tuesday's Tokyo stock market close. Earnings are in focus. Investors are also closely watching developments in the Middle East after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Tuesday that the U.S. could reach a deal with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz "today or tomorrow." The Nikkei Stock Average rose 0.3% to 63957.53 on Tuesday. (kosaku.narioka@wsj.com)
1848 ET [Dow Jones]--New Zealand retailer Briscoe delivered a solid quarter in a challenging operating environment, says Forsyth Barr. Briscoe's 2Q sales rose by 0.8%, led by Rebel Sport, which benefited from the FIFA World Cup and other sporting events. This offset weakness in the Homewares business. Still, Briscoe signaled new pressure on profitability. Gross margins fell 57 basis points in 1H to 40.9%. It means the company has lost all margin gains from the Covid-19 pandemic, analyst Paul Laxton Koraua says. "We acknowledge that Briscoe has done an admirable job of navigating the current operating environment," Forsyth Barr says. "However, this is already reflected in the price." Briscoe's stock trades on a price-to-earnings multiple of 16.5x. That compares to its long-run average of 13x. Forsyth Barr retains an underperform call. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)
1553 ET - Treasury yields cooled amid a busy day of U.S. economic indicators and ahead of Friday's employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Treasury Secretary Bessent indicated in a CNBC interview this morning that a deal with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could come "today or tomorrow," tamping down oil prices. Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson said she supported the Federal Open Market Committee's decision to hold interest rates steady last week and is keeping an open mind about where monetary policy goes from here in an essay. In addition, JOLTS data from the BLS showed that U.S. job openings ticked down in June. The 2-year yield declined 0.062 percentage point to 4.193%. The 10-year yield declined 0.059 percentage point to 4.625%. (jessica.coacci@wsj.com)
1540 ET - Wells Fargo's CEO echoes Treasury Secretary Bessent's proclamation on CNBC earlier that "the K-shaped economy is over." Charlie Scharf says the data supports Bessent's comment. He says credit card spending is up 10% and it's not just affluent customers--with mass market customers driving a third of the spending. On the debit card side, Scharf says spending is up 7% and about 70% of the increase is from the mass customer. "So everyone is spending more, delinquencies are down, the savings rate is up," he says on CNBC. Still, Scharf says people seem concerned as seen in consumer confidence data, but he cites tax refunds and the job market as positives and the fact that average direct-deposit paychecks are rising faster than inflation for his customers. (patrick.sheridan@wsj.com)
1349 ET - Toronto-listed stocks rally in midday trading, buoyed by strong corporate earnings and optimism surround a potential Middle East deal. Canada's S&P/TSX Composite Index and the blue-chip S&P/TSX 60 are up 1.7% and 1.3%, respectively, driven by strength in tech and mining stocks. Conversely, health tech and energy lag, with energy tracking lower crude prices around $75 a barrel. Market sentiment is getting a major lift after U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent signaled on CNBC that an agreement with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could be reached as early as tomorrow, giving equities a dual catalyst alongside solid earnings. (adriano.marchese@wsj.com)
1245 ET - Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent proclaims "the K-shaped economy is over," in an interview with CNBC. The term describes higher-income earners thriving in the economy while lower-income earners struggle. Bessent says we are now seeing a more "C-shaped economy where the lower-end of wage earners are finally clawing it back." Bessent adds that the bottom quartile of wage earners have had, year-over-year, a 5.5% wage gain which is three times more than the top quartile. Last month, some economists also noted improvements in the K-shaped economy. "The gap between lower- and upper-income spending narrowed further in June, with lower-income households showing the strongest improvement in spending trends since 2021," a note from PNC Economics says.(jessica.coacci@wsj.com)
1222 ET - A streak of monthly outflows seen in bitcoin ETFs was broken in July, according to data from 21shares. The firm reports that in July bitcoin ETFs saw a net inflow of roughly $400 million. This comes after two straight negative months for ETFs, with $4.56 billion in net outflows in June, says 21shares. The firm says that the return of capital to bitcoin ETFs may be a factor that pushes bitcoin prices up in August. "Bitcoin is knocking on a key resistance level, $66,000, which it hasn't broken in 50 days," says the firm. Bitcoin is up 0.3% to $63,981. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1220 ET - Park Slope in Brooklyn, N.Y., is the hottest luxury neighborhood of 2026, according to Redfin. Highland Park, Ill., is close behind, with Overland Park, Kan., ranking third. This is according to a Redfin analysis ranking U.S. zip codes in the 100 most populous metro areas--with median home sale prices within the 65th percentile and above for their parent metro--by year-over-year growth in listing views on Redfin.com and Redfin Compete Score. "Unfazed by high mortgage rates and an uncertain global economy, luxury homebuyers are having an outsized impact on the otherwise tepid spring 2026 housing market," Asad Khan, Redfin Senior Economist says. "These high-end neighborhoods on this list are hot because there's not enough supply to meet the high demand," Khan adds.
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