IonQ's (IONQ) Q2 results indicated strong commercial momentum, and its 256-qubit system remains on track for H1 2027, with SkyWater integration pivotal to scaling its roadmap, Morgan Stanley said Thursday.
The company delivered another strong quarter, beating consensus by 20% and raising its 2026 revenue guidance to $285 million. The key driver was deployment of its fifth-generation Tempo computer at KISTI and QuantumBasel, leading to the elevated international mix at nearly 50% of revenue, according to the note.
The updated annual guidance implies H2 revenue of $135 million to $145 million. The brokerage expects some moderation from Q2's unusually strong deployment-driven run rate, with potentially lumpy quarter-over-quarter results tied to system milestones, the note added.
Management believes the core research and development behind electronic qubit control has been proven, shifting the focus to system integration and engineering scale. At the same time, IonQ is building its 10,000-qubit system, with SkyWater's 200 millimeter fabrication capabilities and faster iteration cycles supporting that roadmap, the brokerage said.
For 2026 and 2027, Morgan Stanley expects revenue of $286 million and $424 million, compared with its prior estimates of $265 million and $401 million, respectively.
Morgan Stanley kept an equal-weight rating on IonQ and raised its price target to $49 from $48.50.
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