The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
1848 ET [Dow Jones]--New Zealand retailer Briscoe delivered a solid quarter in a challenging operating environment, says Forsyth Barr. Briscoe's 2Q sales rose by 0.8%, led by Rebel Sport, which benefited from the FIFA World Cup and other sporting events. This offset weakness in the Homewares business. Still, Briscoe signaled new pressure on profitability. Gross margins fell 57 basis points in 1H to 40.9%. It means the company has lost all margin gains from the Covid-19 pandemic, analyst Paul Laxton Koraua says. "We acknowledge that Briscoe has done an admirable job of navigating the current operating environment," Forsyth Barr says. "However, this is already reflected in the price." Briscoe's stock trades on a price-to-earnings multiple of 16.5x. That compares to its long-run average of 13x. Forsyth Barr retains an underperform call. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)
1553 ET - Treasury yields cooled amid a busy day of U.S. economic indicators and ahead of Friday's employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Treasury Secretary Bessent indicated in a CNBC interview this morning that a deal with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could come "today or tomorrow," tamping down oil prices. Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson said she supported the Federal Open Market Committee's decision to hold interest rates steady last week and is keeping an open mind about where monetary policy goes from here in an essay. In addition, JOLTS data from the BLS showed that U.S. job openings ticked down in June. The 2-year yield declined 0.062 percentage point to 4.193%. The 10-year yield declined 0.059 percentage point to 4.625%. (jessica.coacci@wsj.com)
1540 ET - Wells Fargo's CEO echoes Treasury Secretary Bessent's proclamation on CNBC earlier that "the K-shaped economy is over." Charlie Scharf says the data supports Bessent's comment. He says credit card spending is up 10% and it's not just affluent customers--with mass market customers driving a third of the spending. On the debit card side, Scharf says spending is up 7% and about 70% of the increase is from the mass customer. "So everyone is spending more, delinquencies are down, the savings rate is up," he says on CNBC. Still, Scharf says people seem concerned as seen in consumer confidence data, but he cites tax refunds and the job market as positives and the fact that average direct-deposit paychecks are rising faster than inflation for his customers. (patrick.sheridan@wsj.com)
1349 ET - Toronto-listed stocks rally in midday trading, buoyed by strong corporate earnings and optimism surround a potential Middle East deal. Canada's S&P/TSX Composite Index and the blue-chip S&P/TSX 60 are up 1.7% and 1.3%, respectively, driven by strength in tech and mining stocks. Conversely, health tech and energy lag, with energy tracking lower crude prices around $75 a barrel. Market sentiment is getting a major lift after U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent signaled on CNBC that an agreement with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could be reached as early as tomorrow, giving equities a dual catalyst alongside solid earnings. (adriano.marchese@wsj.com)
1245 ET - Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent proclaims "the K-shaped economy is over," in an interview with CNBC. The term describes higher-income earners thriving in the economy while lower-income earners struggle. Bessent says we are now seeing a more "C-shaped economy where the lower-end of wage earners are finally clawing it back." Bessent adds that the bottom quartile of wage earners have had, year-over-year, a 5.5% wage gain which is three times more than the top quartile. Last month, some economists also noted improvements in the K-shaped economy. "The gap between lower- and upper-income spending narrowed further in June, with lower-income households showing the strongest improvement in spending trends since 2021," a note from PNC Economics says.(jessica.coacci@wsj.com)
1222 ET - A streak of monthly outflows seen in bitcoin ETFs was broken in July, according to data from 21shares. The firm reports that in July bitcoin ETFs saw a net inflow of roughly $400 million. This comes after two straight negative months for ETFs, with $4.56 billion in net outflows in June, says 21shares. The firm says that the return of capital to bitcoin ETFs may be a factor that pushes bitcoin prices up in August. "Bitcoin is knocking on a key resistance level, $66,000, which it hasn't broken in 50 days," says the firm. Bitcoin is up 0.3% to $63,981. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1220 ET - Park Slope in Brooklyn, N.Y., is the hottest luxury neighborhood of 2026, according to Redfin. Highland Park, Ill., is close behind, with Overland Park, Kan., ranking third. This is according to a Redfin analysis ranking U.S. zip codes in the 100 most populous metro areas--with median home sale prices within the 65th percentile and above for their parent metro--by year-over-year growth in listing views on Redfin.com and Redfin Compete Score. "Unfazed by high mortgage rates and an uncertain global economy, luxury homebuyers are having an outsized impact on the otherwise tepid spring 2026 housing market," Asad Khan, Redfin Senior Economist says. "These high-end neighborhoods on this list are hot because there's not enough supply to meet the high demand," Khan adds. (chris.wack@wsj.com)
1206 ET - The further widening of Canada's merchandise-trade surplus in June suggests trade momentum continued to hold up at the end of 2Q, with monthly exports up 0.4% to a fresh record and imports rising more modestly, KPMG Canada's Daniel Hyun says. Nominal trade figures continue to be heavily influenced by volatility in commodity prices, though real volumes of energy and metals exports remain robust, the economist notes. And he adds the most tariff-exposed sectors held up well in June, with strong growth in motor vehicle and parts exports and in steel and iron products. Aluminum exports contracted, but this was a reversal of strong May exports to European countries. (robb.stewart@wsj.com; @RobbMStewart)
1201 ET - Users of the Coldcard hardware wallet are fleeing, looking for a safer place to store their bitcoin. Since last week, users of Coldcard have been reporting their bitcoin stored on the hardware wallets have been siphoned, stoking fear among users that they may lose their holdings. In a note, analysts with CryptoQuant say that small holders of bitcoin are moving coins "at a scale not seen since the FTX collapse," with many Coldcard users opting to move their holdings to centralized exchanges like Coinbase and Binance. In a post on X, Galaxy Research says that as of last night, the hack has stolen roughly $130 million-worth of bitcoin. Bitcoin is down 0.2% to $63,675 today. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1115 ET - A jump in Canadian gold exports offset a drop in oil prices and surge in imports of IT equipment from the U.S. to keep Canada's international trade surplus rising in June, Capital Economics' Bradley Saunders says. The goods-trade balance widened to about C$3.9 billion, in part thanks to a roughly C$500,000 downward revision to May's surplus to C$3.7 billion. Saunders says the trade balance's flip into a sizeable surplus in the second quarter implies net trade made a healthy contribution to overall GDP growth for the period. That could mean upside risk to the preliminary 3.4% annualized GDP Statistics Canada estimated for 2Q, though Saunders says it still doesn't change the expectation the Bank of Canada will leave interest rates increases until 2027. (robb.stewart@wsj.com; @RobbMStewart)
1102 ET - Continued buoyant new orders points to a robust recovery across German manufacturing, Deutsche Bank economists Felicitas Henze and Robin Winkler say. While initial improvement was driven by large defense-related contracts, the recovery has recently become increasingly broad-based, they say in a note. In some sectors demand is expanding faster than capacity but that gap should be closed by the current defense and AI-investment cycles that largely transcend the usual competitive forces in global goods markets. Still, German companies remain concerned about their international competitiveness, according to business surveys, the economist say. "The dissonance between accelerating cyclical momentum and persistent structural concerns is reported by companies across all major sectors," they say. (edward.frankl@wsj.com)
1059 ET - Markets lower their expectations of the Bank of England raising interest rates in 2026 as U.S.-Iran talks look to be progressing. The U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said a deal could be reached by Wednesday and a Qatari official said that the negotiations are advancing. Investors currently price in 23 basis points of BOE rate increases in 2026, down from around 26 basis points earlier in the day, LSEG data show.
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