Fed Unlikely to Panic This Time Around Following Summer Job Lull

1318 ET - "Here we go again," says Santander's Stephen Stanley when characterizing the 23,000 drop in July payrolls. He says that for the third year in a row, payrolls fell off a cliff in the summer, leading the Fed to panic and begin easing in September. In each instance, jobs snapped back in the fall, he says, and he expects the same pattern this year. As for the Fed's response, Stanley thinks this time will be different. "Policymakers broadly see the labor market as stable, and back-to-back 30K gains in private payrolls are not soft enough to convince them otherwise, especially as the unemployment rate is dropping." He also points to comments following July jobs from Richmond Fed's Barkin characterizing the labor market as in a "weak balance," signaling he has not sharply changed his assessment.