Eli Lilly posted a blockbuster second quarter fueled by continued demand for its portfolio of GLP-1 medications, though one glaring question hung over the print.
The numbers themselves were solid. The world's biggest drugmaker by market value reported adjusted earnings of $8.38 a share in the period, better than the $6.01 consensus estimate among analysts polled by FactSet. Revenue surged 48% to nearly $23 billion -- Wall Street was looking for $20.7 billion.
Wall Street evidently was pleased with the report. Lilly shares jumped 6.2% on Wednesday, snapping a five-day losing streak. The benchmark S&P 500 index rose 0.7%.
Crucially, the results suggested Lilly's GLP-1 franchise was more profitable than expected. The beat on revenue largely flowed through to the bottom line, driving higher-than-expected net income, which came in at $7.1 billion against a FactSet estimate of $5.4 billion.
Revenue tied to Mounjaro, the company's flagship injectable medication for Type 2 diabetes, nearly doubled from the prior year. Mounjaro logged $9.9 billion in revenue, ahead of the consensus estimate for $8.8 billion.
Zepbound -- a drug containing the same active ingredient, tirzepatide, approved for chronic weight management -- brought in $4.93 billion, beating out analysts' call for $4.6 billion. Mounjaro and Zepbound recorded revenue of $5.2 billion and $3.4 billion, respectively, last year.
Lilly and peer Novo Nordisk are locked in a heated battle to capture the weight-loss drug market. Following in Novo's footsteps, Lilly launched an oral GLP-1, Foundayo, in April.
While management remains excited about the drug's potential, Foundayo has faced heavy scrutiny since its launch. Wall Street sentiment was divided heading into the latest quarter, with revenue forecasts spanning $80 million and $100 million.
In the latest period -- Foundayo's first full quarter on the market -- the pill generated $98 million in revenue. While that number landed near the upper end of the general forecast range, it fell short of the $103 million consensus estimate among analysts polled by FactSet.
Sales are likely to accelerate in the second half of the year as Medicare coverage and direct-to-consumer advertising take effect. However, some investors may find it disappointing that Foundayo hasn't taken off the same way Novo's competing product has.
Novo's Wegovy pill debuted at the start of the year and is tracking as one of the strongest and fastest pharmaceutical volume launches in history. For now, Foundayo appears to be lagging behind.
UBS analysts noted last week that Foundayo prescriptions had risen 10% to 29,388, marking another week of back-to-back growth. Although the pill is currently outpacing oral Wegovy, Novo's product showed around 135,000 scripts around the 16-week mark, meaning Foundayo is tracking around 20% of that.
Lilly is an unquestionably diversified company. Its portfolio spans immunology, oncology, and neuroscience, only strengthened by acquisitions in recent years. Yet its "weight-loss drugs" -- a catchall term for Lilly's portfolio of GLP-1 medications -- continue to generate the lion's share of revenue.
The continued adoption of Mounjaro and Zepbound is fueling management's optimism. Lilly hiked its full-year revenue outlook on the back of its latest quarter, guiding for revenue in the range of $85 billion to $87 billion. This compares to a previous range of $82 billion to $85 billion, and analysts' calls for $85.3 billion.
The company trimmed the upper end of its adjusted earnings outlook by 50 cents, guiding for full-year earnings of $35.50 to $36.50 a share. The outlook remains above analysts' calls for $35.04 at the midpoint of the range.
On the dealmaking front, Lilly closed four major acquisitions during the quarter. To support a growing strategic focus, the company recently closed its purchase of in vivo cell-therapy maker Kelonia Therapeutics. That was followed in June by the purchase of Centessa Therapeutics, valued at up to $7.8 billion and marking Lilly's largest completed acquisition to date.
After the end of the quarter, Lilly entered into an agreement to acquire AtaiBeckley, the developer of psychedelic drugs to treat mental health disorders. Lilly separately closed three acquisitions to build an infectious disease portfolio, marking its expansion into yet another therapeutic area.
Lilly has moved aggressively to grow what is already the world's most valuable pharmaceutical business, underscored by heavy investments in manufacturing. In May, the drugmaker pledged an additional $4.5 billion to expand sites across Indiana, pushing its total investment in the state past $21 billion.
There was plenty to digest in Lilly's latest earnings report. But, moving forward, investors are keeping a close eye on Foundayo. Analysts expect the pill to generate between $800 million and $1 billion in revenue in 2026.
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