Earlier this summer, it seemed that a major crypto bill would likely become law this year. Now, it might not even get a vote.
As of early Thursday afternoon, there was still no set plan to hold a vote on the so-called Clarity Act, proposed legislation that would put most digital-asset trading out of the purview of securities laws, among other provisions. The bill has been a major goal of Coinbase Global and other cryptocurrency firms, which have spent years lobbying and making campaign contributions to pro-crypto lawmakers just to get to this point.
The Senate is scheduled to begin a long recess this week, and crypto advocates had hoped that it would pass the bill before departing. A combination of logistical issues and lawmakers' concerns about the bill have nearly foreclosed that possibility.
The first hurdle is logistics. To avoid a filibuster, the bill needs votes from at least 60 senators to advance, meaning at least seven Democrats would need to join the bill even if all Republicans voted for it.
On top of that, the Senate's calendar is already full with other priorities, including a vote to confirm Todd Blanche as U.S. attorney general, government funding bills, and a bill changing rules for compensating college athletes. If Republicans can't get Democrats to help move those items quickly, just addressing those issues could require Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R., S.D.) to delay the start of the recess.
"Doing these items alone, absent a time agreement, would take us well into next week," said a Thune spokesman in a post on X.
The second -- and more important -- problem for the crypto industry is that, as of Thursday, the Clarity Act wouldn't get the vote of every GOP senator, let alone the Democrats it needs.
Bank trade groups have fought the bill for months, arguing that it doesn't do enough to prevent crypto firms from paying yields on crypto accounts. Community banks have said the offerings could cause money to flee deposit accounts for crypto, a contention that both crypto firms and the White House have dismissed.
Sen. Josh Hawley (R., Mo.) is among the GOP lawmakers who have expressed concerns about the bill's potential hit to community banks, and on Wednesday he said he would reject the bill as it is currently written. Another missing vote would be that of Sen. Mitch McConnell (R., Ky.), who has been away from the Senate with health problems.
Democrats have continued to withhold support of the bill over ethics concerns. President Donald Trump has made more than $1 billion from crypto-related investments, according to his most recent financial disclosure, and Democrats want the bill to restrict his and other government officials' crypto dealings while in office. While the White House agreed to such an ethics provision, as written it would be enforced only by Trump's own Justice Department and would fall out of effect when he leaves office. Democrats have called that a nonstarter and are still negotiating with Republicans over an alternative.
The stall has led some observers to cut their odds of the bill becoming law this year. In a research note on Wednesday, Compass Point Research & Trading analysts lowered their 2026 odds to 35% from 55%, citing the lack of progress.
A failure to reach a vote could put pressure on shares of Coinbase, even if the firm continues to benefit from Wall Street's embrace of the industry. Analysts have noted that progress on the bill has boosted the stock. In late July, shares rallied 11% after Trump agreed to adding an ethics provision to the bill. If the bill appears to be dead, that would bode ill for the stock.
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