Two Quantum IPOs Face Their First Big Earnings Tests

Dow Jones08-07 16:39

Quantum computing is back in the spotlight as two of the industry's newest public companies prepare to report earnings.

First up is Quantinuum, perhaps the year's most anticipated quantum IPO. The company, formed through the merger of Honeywell International's quantum research division and a U.K.-based start-up in 2021, will release numbers on Aug. 11.

Although the stock has steadily declined since its June debut, Quantinuum remains widely regarded as a technical leader in the field. Its first earnings report as a public company could provide the stock with a much-needed catalyst.

A day later, investors will hear from Colorado-based Infleqtion, which went public through a blank-check merger in February. The company generated buzz less than two months later when it announced upgraded quantum hardware was headed to the International Space Station on a NASA cargo mission.

The two companies have taken different paths to the public markets, but both have experienced sharp swings since their debuts. Infleqtion also stands apart with strong government backing and a broader approach to quantum technology, focusing not only on computing but also on sensors and atomic clocks -- technologies with compelling national-security applications.

With earnings arriving just one day apart, here's what the charts suggest investors should watch next.

Looking at Quantinuum's daily chart, it's important to remember that, like most recent IPOs, the stock needs time to build a proper base. That process may now be underway, as shares appear to have formed a double bottom at the very round $50 level, matching the June 10 low. The following session produced a bullish engulfing candle, sparking a 63% rally over the next seven trading days before the stock consolidated into a bull flag.

The breakout above the $80 bull flag trigger lasted only one session, a notable warning sign since the strongest breakouts typically show immediate follow-through. The first indication of trouble came with the bearish dark cloud cover candle on July 7, which preceded a 46% decline as the stock fell in 11 of the next 17 sessions. It's a reminder of the sharp volatility that often accompanies young IPOs.

The technical picture has begun to improve, however. A bullish morning star completed on Aug. 3, offering an attractive risk-reward entry for bullish traders. The stock now sits just below the $60.06 double-bottom pivot. A decisive breakout above that level would project a measured move toward $100 by early 2027, representing 71% upside from current levels. Remain bullish above $54.

Turning to Infleqtion's weekly chart reveals several notable technical characteristics. The ratio chart versus the Defiance Quantum ETF has trended lower since last October, following an impressive four-week rally in which the stock surged 175%. Since then, the stock has largely oscillated between the very round $10 and $20 levels.

Round-number theory has played a significant role in that range-bound action. After being rejected near $20 in mid-January with back-to-back spinning top candles, buyers defended the $10 area with a bullish harami followed by a hammer during the final week of March and the first week of April. That support sparked a rapid advance, with the stock doubling to $20 by late April before once again encountering heavy resistance.

A bearish shooting star during the first week of June at the $20 level triggered another sharp decline, sending shares back toward the familiar $10 support zone. With the stock once again testing the lower end of its established trading range, the risk-reward appears favorable for bulls. The bullish outlook remains intact as long as shares hold above $9.50 on a closing basis.

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