SpaceX has become a liability for wireless stocks, sending them lower on fears that its Starlink space-based communications network will steal customers and cash flow. That's an opportunity for income-seeking investors looking for yield. Some volatility might be ahead, but today's payouts look safe -- and too good to pass up.
SpaceX reported better-than-expected second-quarter earnings on Tuesday, including $2.6 billion in earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, or Ebitda, from its Starlink connectivity business segment, up from $1.6 billion a year ago, while subscribers hit 12 million, up 100% year over year.
The growth alone might be enough to unnerve wireless investors, but comments from SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell didn't help. She said she is "excited" about Starlink Mobile, adding, "I anticipate us to be able to acquire quite a few of their customers because I think our service will be better."
The "their" is AT&T, Verizon Communications, and T-Mobile US. Shares of all three dropped on Wednesday after SpaceX's earnings report. So did shares of wireless infrastructure companies American Tower, Crown Castle, and SBA Communications.
A well-capitalized company with new technology -- and Elon Musk -- sounds formidable. Barron's doesn't believe it will be that bad. Musk's companies tend to overpromise on timelines. Starlink Mobile might not be a legitimate threat until the next decade. What's more, Wall Street sees SpaceX needing terrestrial infrastructure -- much of which is controlled by the three wireless companies -- to offer full wireless services.
"We don't view [SpaceX's wireless plan] as a scalable solution and believe SpaceX will still need to partner or build on towers to achieve coverage goals," said Wells Fargo analyst Eric Luebchow after the company's earnings report, adding that it will probably take "much longer" for SpaceX to achieve its goals. BNP Paribas analyst Sam McHugh argued that a planned SpaceX wireless network based on satellites and modifications to Starlink customer dishes was "far-fetched."
Tell that to investors who have seen valuation ratios for the six above-named companies drop by an average of 16% over the past year. The three wireless carriers now trade at about 10.5 times expected earnings over the coming 12 months, down from about 12.5 times a year ago. The tower price/earnings ratio averages about 24 times, down from closer to 28 times a year ago.
The declines have left dividend yields up by roughly one percentage point from a year ago. AT&T stock yields almost 5%, up from 4%. T-Mobile yields 2.5%, up from 1.5%. Verizon still yields about 6%. The tower yields have risen to an average of 4.3%, up from 3.1%.
Those yields compare favorably to the 2.1% average yield of dividend payers in the S&P 500 index. But are they safe?
The short answer is yes. Verizon and AT&T spent less than half of the cash flow generated over the past 12 months on dividends, according to Bloomberg, a level that gives companies some cushion. T-Mobile spent closer to 25% of free cash flow. Those ratios aren't expected to change much, based on forward projections for cash flow and net income.
The tower companies pay out a higher percentage of income and cash flow as dividends, but they are organized as real estate investment trusts, which means they must distribute at least 90% of their taxable income to investors. Of the three, American Tower and SBA Communications pay less of their funds from operations than Crown Castle, which cut its quarterly payout to $1.06 a share from $1.57 in May 2025.
The tower stocks, battered by rising interest rates and slowing capital spending from the wireless providers, haven't been strong performers over the past few years. The wireless stocks have performed better but haven't kept up with the market, so investors should look for opportunities to buy them at good value.
The last time wireless companies faced SpaceX-level volatility might have been in summer 2023, when investors worried that costs to remediate lead-sheathed cables would eat into cash flow. AT&T stock bottomed out below $15 a share in 2023. Verizon shares bottomed close to $30.
Things didn't turn out as badly as feared. AT&T stock was nearly $30 before fears of SpaceX sent it below $24. Verizon shares were north of $51 earlier in 2026 before dropping to a recent $47.
How long it will take for SpaceX fears to clear this time is hard to say. For now, investors can get paid to wait.
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