The latest Market Talks covering Commodities. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
0909 ET - CBOT grain futures are lower premarket after the USDA's latest Crop Progress report showed the rating of U.S. corn in good-or-excellent condition unchanged at 61%, while the condition of soybeans fell by one point to 62% good-or-excellent. Soil moistures were mostly down for the week, with 11 states reporting lower moisture. "The weather last week was generally favorable for crop development," says the USDA. "The forecast for this week is calling for chances of rain in the central and northern Corn Belt with hot and generally dry conditions in the southern areas and the Delta." Most-active corn is down 0.4%, while soybeans fall 0.3% and wheat is off 1%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
0723 ET - Palm oil closed higher following strong exports data and soybean oil's gains overnight. Malaysia's Aug. 1-10 palm oil exports are estimated to have risen 9.2% on month, according to cargo surveyor AmSpec Agri Malaysia. Expectations of robust tropical-oil exports to India also boosted prices, Kenanga Futures says in a note. However, investors remain cautious of Malaysia's abundant palm oil supply, which may cap gains, it adds. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for October delivery rose 24 ringgit to 4,747 ringgit a ton. (sherry.qin@wsj.com)
0627 ET - Traders increase their bets on the probability of the Bank of England increasing interest rates in the coming months due to rising oil prices. Brent crude climbs 2.15% to $89.60 a barrel after the U.S. on Monday unveiled a new strategy of piling economic pressure on Iran in an attempt to force it to end the Middle East conflict. The ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions raise inflation concerns, leading investors to increase their expectations of central banks' rate rises. Markets currently price in a total of 29 basis points of BOE rate rises by year end, up from 25 bps priced in last week, LSEG data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
0354 ET - Gold prices are broadly flat as investors await upcoming U.S. inflation data for more cues on the U.S. interest-rate outlook after weaker-than-expected jobs data led markets to scale back bets for a September hike. In early European trading, futures are flat at $4,417.60 a troy ounce, but remain up more than 6% on the week. The focus has now turned to the U.S. consumer price report due on Wednesday and producer price figures on Thursday. "Markets expect U.S. CPI to rise 0.1% month-on-month in July, and a softer reading following the recent weak jobs report could reduce expectations of further monetary tightening," says Soojin Kim from MUFG. "However, persistent energy-driven inflation remains a key risk as tougher U.S. demands on Iran diminish prospects for a near-term reopening of the Strait of Hormuz." (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
0317 ET - Comex gold futures' bullish setup remains intact, based on a daily chart, RHB Retail Research's Joseph Chai says in a report. The relative strength index continued moving upward, reaffirming bullish momentum is in play, the analyst notes. The precious metal will probably see follow-through upward momentum to break beyond resistance at $4,400 per ounce, Chai says. At this juncture, both the 20- and 50-day simple moving averages are serving as support levels, the analyst adds. Spot gold is 0.6% lower at $4,363.44 per ounce. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)
0255 ET - Gold is poised to rebound further toward key resistance at $4,500 per ounce, based on the daily chart, says Quek Ser Leang of UOB Global Economics & Markets Research in a note. The daily moving average convergence divergence indicator is trending steadily higher, the senior technical strategist notes. The daily declining trendline from February's record high is currently near $4,500 per ounce, the strategist says. A clear break above $4,500 per ounce would indicate the $3,943-per-ounce low will probably be a more durable bottom than currently anticipated, the strategist adds. Spot gold is 0.6% lower at $4,365.20 per ounce. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)
2400 ET - Permitting and construction risk for St. Barbara's 15-Mile and Simberi sulfide projects are more than priced in to the gold miner's stock at current levels, says Macquarie. The bank reinstates coverage of St. Barbara with an outperform recommendation and a target of A$0.96/share. The stock trades at an enterprise value per resource ounce of A$41/oz, Australia-based analysts at the bank say. That is "a material discount to our gold coverage mean of A$557/oz," they say. The company's sell-down at Simberi injects enough cash to fund the sulfide expansion while progressing the Touqyoy and 15-Mile Hub growth projects, the analysts say. Shares are up 3.4% at A$0.615. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)
2307 ET - Crude palm oil prices are expected to moderate in 2H, mainly due to seasonally higher production and elevated Malaysian inventories, TA Securities analyst Angeline Chin says in a note. However, prices are expected to remain above 4,000 ringgit a ton, supported by Indonesia's biodiesel program, firmer soybean oil prices and stronger U.S. biofuel feedstock demand, she says. Festive restocking by key importing countries in late 3Q could help absorb part of the seasonal supply increase, while a strengthening El Nino remains an upside risk, although its impact on palm oil production is likely to emerge with a lag, she adds. TA Securities maintains an overweight rating on Malaysian plantation sector, pegging SD Guthrie, Kuala Lumpur Kepong, IOI, United Malacca and Kim Loong Resources at buy. (yingxian.wong@wsj.com)
2243 ET - Palm oil rises in early Asian trade, driven by stronger soybean oil prices overnight on the Chicago Board of Trade, PhillipCapital says in a note. Stronger export data are also seen supporting CPO prices, it adds. Malaysia's palm oil exports for Aug. 1-10 are estimated to have risen 9.2% from the same period last month, according to cargo surveyor AmSpec Agri Malaysia. PhillipCapital expects prices to face resistance at 4,780 ringgit a ton and find support at 4,433 ringgit a ton. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for October delivery is up 14 ringgit at 4,737 ringgit a ton. (yingxian.wong@wsj.com)
2235 ET - Iron ore prices are higher in early Asian trade amid potential supply disruptions. More workers have joined a strike at the Port Hedland iron ore export hub in Western Australia, ANZ Research analysts say in a research note. Although vessels continue to load, there are mounting risks of future disruptions, they say. Still, demand in China has continued to be weak with July's trade data showing iron ore imports fell 4% on month, they note. The most actively traded September iron ore contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange is up 1.3% at 721.5 yuan a ton. (sherry.qin@wsj.com)
2232 ET - Copper prices are higher in early Asian trade, supported by tight near-term supply and expectations of constrained mine output, analysts say. The market remains broadly bullish, driven by a weaker dollar and firm supply fundamentals, Baocheng Futures analysts write in a note. Global copper-mine supply growth could turn negative, while insufficient capital spending is expected to constrain longer-term supply, they say. Copper's near-term outlook remains bullish, though high prices are increasingly weighing on demand and the market is likely to remain focused on the tug-of-war around recent highs, they add. The three-month LME copper contract is up 0.1% at $14,167.00 a ton. (jiahui.huang@wsj.com; @ivy_jiahuihuang)
2201 ET - While the Democratic Republic of Congo's ban on copper-concentrate exports is unlikely to have a major impact on global supplies, it "has injected fresh bullish impetus into an already buoyant market," says BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions. Copper prices are already trading around record highs and the near-term trajectory points to further possible gains, BMI says. "Copper is being buoyed by positive sentiment towards the global economy as hopes of a deal between the U.S. and Iran are renewed, intense stocking up on the Comex as U.S. tariff risks mount, a slightly weaker U.S. dollar in recent days, and the DRC's announcement--despite its minimal material impact on physical trade," it says. LME three-month copper is up 0.2% at $14,190 a metric ton.
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