Retirement planners talk constantly about risk: Longevity risk, inflation risk, sequence-of-returns risk, healthcare risk, policy risk, and market risk. But one thing I've learned in my 20 years focusing on retirement, first as a financial journalist and editor and now as a retirement coach, is that ordinary people don't usually make decisions based on risk models. They make decisions based on fear.
They fear running out of money. They fear Social Security will change. They fear rising healthcare costs. They fear becoming a burden to their children. They fear making the wrong investment decision. They fear being forced to move. They fear losing independence.
To help financial advisors sort out what collective fears are most weighing on clients, I created a fear index. The RetireMentors Retirement Fear Index, is a monthly measure designed to track the major fears shaping retirement behavior in America.
This month the index posted its first decline since June. In June the index, which has a baseline of 100, launched with a reading of 119.7, meaning retirement fear was running nearly 20% higher than in December 2025. In July, the Index rose to 121.7. The August reading, based on July data, declined to 120.7.
It is welcome news, but advisors should not make too much of it. Clients may feel a little better about the economy this month, but they are still wondering whether Social Security will be there in full, whether Medicare will cover what they need, whether they might need long-term care, and whether their money will last.
Better conversations. The goal of the Retirement Fear Index is to give financial advisors a way to name the fears clients are living with -- and use those fears as a starting point for better planning conversations.
The idea grew partly out of my years at Fidelity, where I learned to watch the Cboe Volatility Index. The VIX is designed to measure the market's expectation of near-term volatility using S&P 500 options prices. It isn't a magic number. It doesn't tell you where the market is going next. But it has long been treated as Wall Street's fear gauge.
When the VIX moves above 20 (it's around 15 now), I interpret it as the market having an upset stomach. That doesn't mean investors should sell, panic, or rewrite their financial lives. It means the market is digesting something -- an interest rate scare, an earnings disappointment, a policy shock, or a geopolitical surprise. Sometimes that indigestion lasts only a day. The VIX teaches a simple lesson: Don't make a permanent financial decision during a temporary market flare-up.
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index also shows that investors don't operate on math alone. They move through cycles of confidence, regret, urgency and anxiety. I saw that Wall Street had a fear index. Crypto investors had one. But retirees had no comparable gauge.
Tracking retirement fear. I created The Retirement Fear Index with a December 2025 baseline of 100. The Index is built as a structured meta-analysis incorporating academic research, financial-industry research, financial-services corporate research, and U.S. government research.
The framework blends anchored survey data, retirement-related news and engagement trends, and event triggers such as Social Security updates, healthcare-cost reports and major policy changes. The result is an index that details 10 main fears. It was designed as a monthly read on what retirees and preretirees actually fear -- and how advisors can put that information to work in their practice.
The current index framework classifies 32% of weighted fears as actionable, 38% as partially actionable and 30% as psycho-spiritual. In other words, roughly two-thirds of the fears showing up in the Index can be mitigated through planning, education, process and coaching.
Social Security fear. The June 2026 Social Security Trustees Report projected that the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance trust fund will be able to pay full scheduled benefits only until the fourth quarter of 2032, one quarter earlier than projected last year. At that point, continuing income would be sufficient to pay 78% of scheduled OASI benefits if Congress doesn't act. The combined OASI and Disability Insurance trust funds are projected to pay full scheduled benefits until the third quarter of 2034.
A client hears "Social Security shortfall" and may assume the system is going away. Not true. An advisor can explain what the trustees actually said, what remains uncertain, and what planning levers still exist: claiming strategy, work decisions, cash-flow planning, Roth conversions, spending flexibility and other income sources.
That is how understanding the sources of fear can help advisors have more meaningful conversations with clients about retirement planning.
Put in practice. An advisor might begin a portfolio review with a client by saying: "The Retirement Fear Index cooled slightly this month, but Social Security, healthcare and longevity concerns remain elevated. Which of those feels most relevant to you right now?"
From there, advisors can triage. Some fears are actionable and can be addressed with a planning move, a product, a claiming strategy, a Medicare review, a long-term-care discussion, or a tax adjustment. Some are partially actionable. They require process: family meetings, spending guardrails, housing plans, beneficiary reviews or coaching.
Some are psycho-spiritual. They involve purpose, identity, isolation, dependency, widowhood or cognitive decline. That is a different conversation than "Let's review your performance."
Healthy and unhealthy fears. Some fears are unhealthy. They lead people to sell at the wrong time, claim Social Security too early, avoid long-term-care conversations, underspend for years or stay stuck in a house and lifestyle that no longer fit.
On the flip side, a healthy fear of inflation can lead to better income planning. A healthy fear of healthcare costs can lead to better Medicare and long-term-care preparation. A healthy fear of Social Security finances can encourage more flexible income planning. A healthy fear of isolation can lead to stronger family, housing and community decisions. In these cases, the goal isn't to eliminate fear. The goal is to name it, right-size it and use it to a client's advantage.
For financial advisors, the Retirement Fear Index can help move the client conversation beyond portfolio performance and into the concerns that shape real retirement behavior. It gives advisors a way to listen better, plan more thoughtfully and help clients make decisions with more confidence.
David Conti , CPRC, is a New Hampshire-based retirement coach at RetireMentors, with over 20 years of experience in retirement planning. He spent 17 years in financial communications at Fidelity Investments, where he served as the personal finance and retirement editor for Fidelity Viewpoints.
Editor's note: Guest commentaries like this one are written by authors outside the Barron's Advisor newsroom. They reflect the perspective and opinions of the authors. Submit feedback and commentary pitches to advisor.editors@barrons.com.
Comments