Palm Oil Prices Likely Supported by El Nino, Geopolitical Risks

Dow Jones08-11

0103 GMT - Crude palm oil prices could trade between 4,400 ringgit and 4,600 ringgit a ton in the near term, supported by rising geopolitical risks, strengthening El Nino conditions and higher biodiesel demand in Indonesia, says Ivy Ng Lee Fang of CIMB Securities. Stronger El Nino conditions could weigh on Southeast Asian yields with a lag, posing downside risks to supply from 2027 onwards, the analyst says. Disruptions in sunflower-oil exports from Russia and Ukraine could also boost palm oil substitution demand ahead of India's festival season. CIMB raises its CPO price forecasts for 2026 and 2027 by 50 ringgit a ton each to 4,450 ringgit and 4,550 ringgit a ton, respectively. It remains overweight on Malaysia's plantation sector, and pegs IOI, Kuala Lumpur Kepong and Hap Seng Plantations as its top picks.

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Stronger El Nino conditions could weigh on Southeast Asian yields with a lag, posing downside risks to supply from 2027 onwards, the analyst says. Disruptions in sunflower-oil exports from Russia and Ukraine could also boost palm oil substitution demand ahead of India's festival season. CIMB raises its CPO price forecasts for 2026 and 2027 by 50 ringgit a ton each to 4,450 ringgit and 4,550 ringgit a ton, respectively. 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