Bank Indonesia Likely to Raise Interest Rates in 4Q

Dow Jones08-10

0419 GMT - CIMB revises its Bank Indonesia rate outlook to a 25bps hike in 4Q from a pause, reflecting inflation risks from El Nino-related food disruptions and elevated energy prices. Inflation could be at 3.4% in 2026, near the upper end of BI's target range, CIMB analysts say. Fiscal headroom is expected to remain adequate, as higher energy subsidies are likely to be largely offset by cuts to priority programs and stronger revenue collection, they say. The fiscal deficit target of 2.85% of GDP is therefore expected to remain intact, although a potential higher government spending in 2H could pose upside risks, they reckon. Enhanced liquidity incentives should ease funding pressures, but credit transmission is likely to remain limited as banks continue to allocate excess liquidity to Bank Indonesia securities, CIMB adds.

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