The latest Market Talks covering Energy markets. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
1505 ET - U.S. natural gas futures give back some of the previous day's gains. Soft LNG demand and comfortable storage levels have kept a lid on attempted rallies, despite high power-sector demand driven by hot summer weather. In its latest monthly outlook, the EIA said it expects natural gas storage to end October at 3,985 Bcf, entering the winter at its highest level since 2016. "With high storage heading into winter, we expect the Henry Hub spot price will remain below $3/mmBtu until November and average $3.03/mmBtu over the remaining five months of the year," the EIA said. Nymex natural gas settles down 1% at $2.767/mmBtu. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
1500 ET - Oil futures extend their rally with Brent rising for a fifth straight session as the market reconsiders reports of progress toward an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. A dip into negative territory after a Pakistani official said the U.S. and Iran were close to some sort of arrangement was short-lived. Iran's naming of hardliners to top security positions doesn't bode well for negotiations, Mizuho's Robert Yawger says in a note. "The new appointees do not strike me as the type of people who will be willing to compromise on any of the issues that need to be resolved for a genuine peace to emerge," he says. Brent settles up 1.4% at $88.91 a barrel after hitting $90 earlier in the session. WTI rises 1.3% to $83.20 a barrel.(anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
1348 ET - The EIA's next report on U.S. ethanol estimates is expected to show a small decline in average daily production. Analysts surveyed by Dow Jones see production landing anywhere from 1.087 million barrels a day to 1.115 million barrels a day. That's versus last week's average of 1.107 million barrels a day. Forecasted inventories are expected to land within 24.29 million barrels and 25.22 million barrels. Most-active CBOT corn is down 0.4%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1237 ET - Oil futures are moderately higher with the market cautiously awaiting signs of an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Despite reports of progress in talks, "I think there are still some very fundamental differences between the U.S. and Iran and everything they're trying to negotiate," Rabobank senior energy strategist Joe DeLaura says. "Both sides don't want to back down and there's no incentive for either one to back down." Options for the U.S. between total escalation and withdrawal are both bad, he adds. WTI is up 1.1% at $83.04 a barrel and Brent is up 0.9% at $88.48. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
1109 ET - Expanding AI data centers have a growing impact on municipal bond markets, spurring issuance while presenting new risks, LPL Financial's Lawrence Gillum and Brian Booe say in a note. Power-hungry data centers require grid upgrades, leading to an increase of more than 25% in electric power issuance so far this year. "The gas prepayment sector, long a niche, has grown to more than 5% of the municipal index with roughly $100 billion outstanding," Gillum and Booe say. Host communities can benefit from an increased tax base. However, backlash against higher utility bills associated with data centers represents a risk, they say. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)
1006 ET - U.S. natural gas futures are holding on to the previous session's gains made on a hotter near-term weather outlook. "Expectations for stronger consumption in the coming weeks, along with a recovery in LNG feedgas demand, have helped offset an uptick in domestic production and lift prices from recent lows," Andy Huenefeld of Pinebrook Energy Advisors says in a note. While the Midwest and Northeast will likely cool down in coming days, lingering heat across the south should support demand from power generators well into August, he adds. Nymex natural gas is steady at $2.794/mmBtu.(anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
0941 ET - Oil futures move lower after Pakistan's defense minister tells Bloomberg that the U.S. and Iran are nearing some sort of agreement. Yemen's Houthis continue attacks on shipping in the Red Sea and the U.S. fired on a ship attempting to evade its blockade of Iranian ports. "It seems the details of a peace deal have become more complicated with Iran demanding the U.S. repay for war damages, and President Trump countering, stating Iran should make financial compensation to the people they have harmed in the past including their own citizens," Dennis Kissler of BOK Financial says in a note. "The reality remains that the Strait of Hormuz traffic remains extremely light, and global fuel supplies (especially diesel) are tightening further." WTI is off 0.6% at $81.62 a barrel and Brent is down 0.8% at $87.02.(anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
0859 ET - Treasury yields lose some of their overnight momentum but remain elevated as rising oil prices rekindle inflation fears. The U.S.-Iran standoff shows no signs of abating and Brent crude approaches $90 a barrel. U.S. forces fired on a Panama-flagged ship that attempted to run the American blockade of Iranian ports early Tuesday, a U.S. official says. July CPI inflation is due tomorrow and a hot reading would likely spur bets on a Fed hike next month. The U.S. Treasury will auction $58 billion in three-year notes this afternoon. July existing home sales are expected to shrink 1%, following June's 2.4% contraction, in data due at 10 a.m. ET, according to WSJ consensus. The 10-year yield is at 4.697%, after reaching 4.735% overnight. The two-year slips to 4.228% from 4.262%. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)
0627 ET - Traders increase their bets on the probability of the Bank of England increasing interest rates in the coming months due to rising oil prices. Brent crude climbs 2.15% to $89.60 a barrel after the U.S. on Monday unveiled a new strategy of piling economic pressure on Iran in an attempt to force it to end the Middle East conflict. The ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions raise inflation concerns, leading investors to increase their expectations of central banks' rate rises. Markets currently price in a total of 29 basis points of BOE rate rises by year end, up from 25 bps priced in last week, LSEG data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
0344 ET - Oil prices extend the previous session's gains as talks to reopen the crucial Strait of Hormuz waterway hit an impasse. In early European trading, Brent crude is up 2.1% to $89.61 a barrel, while WTI futures rise 2.2% to $83.90 a barrel after settling 5% higher on Monday. "The pattern keeps repeating -- initial enthusiasm when negotiations appear promising, only for that optimism to dissipate just as quickly," analysts at ING say. "Yet the oil market remains very headline-driven, which leaves prices whipsawing." (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
0330 ET - European energy stocks rise in opening trade as oil continues to gain. Brent extends a four-day rally as tougher U.S. and Iranian demands slow progress toward an agreement that could resume normal shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, MUFG's Soojin Kim writes. In New York, Brent futures rise 1.5% to $89 a barrel and WTI gains 0.8% to $79.13. Norway's Equinor rises 2.4%. In London, BP gains 1.43% while Shell rises 1%. Italy's Eni is up 1.7% and Spain's Repsol ticks 1.5% higher. France's TotalEnergies is up 1.3%. (adam.whittaker@wsj.com)
0236 ET - Yangzijiang Shipbuilding's upward cycle for shipbuilding may be longer than previously expected by Maybank Research, analyst Hussaini Saifee says in a note. Strengthening newbuild demand in shipbuilding and a firmer pricing outlook increasingly suggest this, the analyst says. Large containership inquiries have re-accelerated together with continuing tanker and gas-carrier demand, while 2029 slots are nearly full, the analyst says. Maybank Research lifts its 2026-2028 forecasts for the Singapore-listed shipbuilder's net profit after tax by 12%-19%. It raises the stock's rating to buy from hold and the target price to 5.00 Singapore dollars from 4.15 Singapore dollars. Shares are 10% higher at 4.62 Singapore dollars.
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