The latest Market Talks covering Energy markets. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
0920 ET - Adnoc Gas' midterm growth outlook and risk profile have improved after it said it would proceed with phases 2 and 3 of the Rich Gas Development, HSBC analyst Ildar Khaziev writes. The United Arab Emirates wants to be self-sufficient in natural gas. Being unshackled from OPEC's production quotas and tapping associated gas while drilling for oil removes a major constraint to its ambition, the analyst adds. (adam.whittaker@wsj.com)
0916 ET - Oil futures are rising after Iran set out tough demands on the U.S. for reopening the Strait of Hormuz while continuing talks with Oman on shipping through the waterway. "Markets are balancing recovering supply against persistent uncertainty surrounding the future governance and security of the Strait of Hormuz, helping keep a geopolitical risk premium embedded in energy prices," Razan Hilal of Forex.com says in a note. "Iran's demands surrounding transit arrangements, potential tolls, reconstruction costs and broader concessions have raised the bar for a lasting agreement." WTI is up 1.5% at $79.37 a barrel and Brent rises 1.7% to $84.94. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
0915 ET - Oil prices extend earlier gains, supported by persistent uncertainty over a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping. Tehran laid out a list of demands for reopening the critical waterway, including the withdrawal of U.S. forces, ending of all sanctions and war reparations. "Significant hurdles remain before any broader agreement is reached," analysts at ING say. In early U.S. trading, Brent crude is up 1.8% to $85.05 a barrel, while WTI futures rise 1.7% to $79.74 a barrel.(giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
0907 ET - Investor protection against the risk of the dollar falling appears to have returned to very low levels, ING's Chris Turner says in a note. Some estimates suggest European hedge ratios on U.S. investments, or the proportion of dollar exposure that is insured against fluctuations, have been cut back to their lowest since February 2025. The Iran war and Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's commitment to price stability have led to dollar optimism this summer, he says. Low levels of dollar hedging before sweeping U.S. tariffs in April 2025 were widely seen as contributing to a sharp dollar selloff. Low dollar hedges support ING's forecast for the euro to rise to $1.18 by year-end from $1.1548 currently, he says. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0849 ET - Treasury yields rise ahead of U.S. inflation data due later this week and following July's unexpected negative payroll numbers. Iran makes tough demands to reopen Hormuz, pushing oil futures up 1.5%. Economists surveyed by WSJ expect July's 12-month CPI inflation to cool slightly to 3.4% from 3.5%, with core slowing to 2.5% from 2.6%. Odds of a September hike fall to 46% from 67% a week ago, as the Fed is now expected to hold, according to CME data. The WSJ Dollar Index rises 0.2% as the greenback strengthens 0.6% against the yen. The 10-year yield is at 4.662%, up from Friday's settle of 4.657%. The two-year rises to 4.222% from 4.203%. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)
0828 ET - Bitcoin turns lower after reaching a two-week high overnight as it struggles for sustained appreciation amid uncertainty over the Middle East conflict and U.S. crypto regulation. Iran said a deal with Oman on the Strait of Hormuz is near but laid out a set of demands the U.S. must meet before the key shipping route is reopened. Meanwhile, the U.S. Senate started a five-week recess at the weekend without voting on the Clarity Act, which aims to provide a regulatory framework for digital assets. Bitcoin drops 0.1% to $65,044 after rising as high as $65,393 overnight driven by Friday's weak U.S. nonfarm payrolls report dampening expectations for Federal Reserve interest-rate rises, LSEG data show. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0745 ET - European natural-gas prices climb more than 5% as uncertainties surrounding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz raise concerns about supplies ahead of winter. "Europe is well behind in refilling its storage facilities before the heating season, with levels sitting at 58% compared with normal seasonal levels of 70%," ANZ analysts say. "However, even if the strait reopens, shipping companies will require a sustained period of calm before making the journey through the key waterway." In afternoon trading, the benchmark Dutch TTF contract is up 5.7% to 58.80 euros a megawatt-hour. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
0629 ET - The Swedish krona could appreciate significantly against the Norwegian krone on any agreement to open the Strait of Hormuz, Commerzbank's Michael Pfister says in a note. The Norwegian krone is more affected by falling oil prices as a major energy producer than the Swedish krona is affected by rising prices, given Sweden's relatively low dependence on energy imports. If the Strait opens sustainably, the Norwegian krone will be hit by falling oil prices and the pricing out of interest-rate rise expectations, he says. For the Swedish krona, falling oil prices should offset the correction in rate expectations, he says. The Norwegian krone rises 0.1% to 0.9970 Swedish krona after reaching a 25-day low of 0.9848 overnight, LSEG data show. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0627 ET - The U.K. economy performed strongly in the first half of 2026, though it faces a slowdown before the end of the year, Davy Research economist Kevin Timoney says. GDP data due Thursday could show a marginal on-month decline in June, though there has yet to be much of a negative correction following a strong uplift in March, he says. That pickup was likely driven by frontloading ahead of expected price increases due to the war in the Middle East. That leads to consensus expectations consistent with annualized first-half GDP growth of nearly 1.7%. However, activity in the second half has been considerably weaker than the first in recent years, Timoney says. He expects overall growth in 2026 of 0.9%. (edward.frankl@wsj.com)
0619 ET - Oil-price volatility is the main driver of U.K. government bonds, or gilts, currently, ING's Michiel Tukker and Benjamin Schroeder say in a note. Gilt yields remain too high, the highest among developed market peers, making them attractive, the strategists say. Given the U.K.'s weak economic growth relative to the U.S., markets could lower their expectations for interest-rate rises from the Bank of England, causing gilt yields to fall, they say. However, investors need to be wary because further rises in oil prices could complicate the interest-rate outlook. "Any move in oil prices can quickly turn any dovish position [in gilts] into a loss." Ten-year gilt yields climb 0.6 basis points to 4.927%, Tradeweb data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
0619 ET - Increases in German industrial production and services turnover in June point to an upward revision to second-quarter GDP, despite the energy shock and trade uncertainty, Pantheon Macroeconomics' Melanie Debono says in a note. "We look for a 0.1 percentage point upward revision, to 0.3% quarter-to-quarter, signaling a smaller slowdown from the 0.4% increase in GDP in 1Q," she says. Industrial output rose 0.2% in June, after increasing 0.7% in May, meaning German industry fared better than other major eurozone nations, Debono says. Services turnover, which jumped for a second straight month in May, also suggest an upward revision to 2Q. Looking ahead, business surveys are optimistic on Germany's economic outlook into 3Q, helped by the government's announced reforms, she says. (edward.frankl@wsj.com)
0614 ET - Palm oil rose during the Asian trading session. Sentiment was likely supported by strength in overnight rival oil prices, amid concerns over Iran rejecting talks with the U.S., making a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz elusive, Kenanga Futures writes. There is also improving demand prospects from India ahead of the festive season, it adds. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for October delivery rose 47 ringgit to 4,724 ringgit a ton.
Comments