The latest Market Talks covering Energy markets. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
0828 ET - Bitcoin turns lower after reaching a two-week high overnight as it struggles for sustained appreciation amid uncertainty over the Middle East conflict and U.S. crypto regulation. Iran said a deal with Oman on the Strait of Hormuz is near but laid out a set of demands the U.S. must meet before the key shipping route is reopened. Meanwhile, the U.S. Senate started a five-week recess at the weekend without voting on the Clarity Act, which aims to provide a regulatory framework for digital assets. Bitcoin drops 0.1% to $65,044 after rising as high as $65,393 overnight driven by Friday's weak U.S. nonfarm payrolls report dampening expectations for Federal Reserve interest-rate rises, LSEG data show. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0745 ET - European natural-gas prices climb more than 5% as uncertainties surrounding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz raise concerns about supplies ahead of winter. "Europe is well behind in refilling its storage facilities before the heating season, with levels sitting at 58% compared with normal seasonal levels of 70%," ANZ analysts say. "However, even if the strait reopens, shipping companies will require a sustained period of calm before making the journey through the key waterway." In afternoon trading, the benchmark Dutch TTF contract is up 5.7% to 58.80 euros a megawatt-hour. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
0629 ET - The Swedish krona could appreciate significantly against the Norwegian krone on any agreement to open the Strait of Hormuz, Commerzbank's Michael Pfister says in a note. The Norwegian krone is more affected by falling oil prices as a major energy producer than the Swedish krona is affected by rising prices, given Sweden's relatively low dependence on energy imports. If the Strait opens sustainably, the Norwegian krone will be hit by falling oil prices and the pricing out of interest-rate rise expectations, he says. For the Swedish krona, falling oil prices should offset the correction in rate expectations, he says. The Norwegian krone rises 0.1% to 0.9970 Swedish krona after reaching a 25-day low of 0.9848 overnight, LSEG data show. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0627 ET - The U.K. economy performed strongly in the first half of 2026, though it faces a slowdown before the end of the year, Davy Research economist Kevin Timoney says. GDP data due Thursday could show a marginal on-month decline in June, though there has yet to be much of a negative correction following a strong uplift in March, he says. That pickup was likely driven by frontloading ahead of expected price increases due to the war in the Middle East. That leads to consensus expectations consistent with annualized first-half GDP growth of nearly 1.7%. However, activity in the second half has been considerably weaker than the first in recent years, Timoney says. He expects overall growth in 2026 of 0.9%. (edward.frankl@wsj.com)
0619 ET - Oil-price volatility is the main driver of U.K. government bonds, or gilts, currently, ING's Michiel Tukker and Benjamin Schroeder say in a note. Gilt yields remain too high, the highest among developed market peers, making them attractive, the strategists say. Given the U.K.'s weak economic growth relative to the U.S., markets could lower their expectations for interest-rate rises from the Bank of England, causing gilt yields to fall, they say. However, investors need to be wary because further rises in oil prices could complicate the interest-rate outlook. "Any move in oil prices can quickly turn any dovish position [in gilts] into a loss." Ten-year gilt yields climb 0.6 basis points to 4.927%, Tradeweb data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
0619 ET - Increases in German industrial production and services turnover in June point to an upward revision to second-quarter GDP, despite the energy shock and trade uncertainty, Pantheon Macroeconomics' Melanie Debono says in a note. "We look for a 0.1 percentage point upward revision, to 0.3% quarter-to-quarter, signaling a smaller slowdown from the 0.4% increase in GDP in 1Q," she says. Industrial output rose 0.2% in June, after increasing 0.7% in May, meaning German industry fared better than other major eurozone nations, Debono says. Services turnover, which jumped for a second straight month in May, also suggest an upward revision to 2Q. Looking ahead, business surveys are optimistic on Germany's economic outlook into 3Q, helped by the government's announced reforms, she says. (edward.frankl@wsj.com)
0614 ET - Palm oil rose during the Asian trading session. Sentiment was likely supported by strength in overnight rival oil prices, amid concerns over Iran rejecting talks with the U.S., making a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz elusive, Kenanga Futures writes. There is also improving demand prospects from India ahead of the festive season, it adds. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for October delivery rose 47 ringgit to 4,724 ringgit a ton. (kimberley.kao@wsj.com)
0613 ET - The cost of insuring euro-denominated credit against default remains unchanged given high uncertainty around the Middle East conflict. Over the weekend, Iran announced fresh demands, including compensation from the U.S. for war damage, before signing a deal. The announcement raised uncertainty around a potential resolution to the conflict. The iTraxx Europe Crossover index of euro high-yield credit default swaps is steady at 249 basis points, S&P Global Market Intelligence data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
0512 ET - China's July trade data may be showing early signs of a recovery in domestic demand, BNP Paribas' William Bratton says in a note. Surging exports and rising imports suggest the country's production-oriented export engine remains robust, with foreign revenue growth likely to remain a key driver of production. However, accelerating non-production-related imports could point to a pickup in consumption-related imports. While this may partly reflect the yuan's recent strength, it could also signal improving underlying domestic demand. "If so, this is a positive for those looking for a reason to tilt more towards the consumption-related sectors," Bratton adds. BNP Paribas is taking a wait-and-see approach pending more conclusive evidence.(jason.chau@wsj.com)
0506 ET - Adnoc Gas' net income for the second quarter came in 5% ahead of a company-compiled consensus due to better-than-expected pricing in its domestic gas business, JPMorgan analyst Alex Comer writes. The unit posted adjusted Ebitda of $687 million and was 25% ahead of what JPM had expected, he writes. Overall, earnings at the U.A.E. producer of natural gas tumbled after shipping through the vital Strait of Hormuz slowed to a trickle. (adam.whittaker@wsj.com)
0341 ET - Oil prices remain broadly unchanged as markets await the outcome of Iran-Oman talks to restore shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. In early European trading, Brent crude is up 0.2% at $83.75 a barrel, while WTI futures rise 0.1% to $78.27 a barrel. "The risk of renewed Middle East escalation remains elevated, but the muted price response highlights competing headwinds from weak Chinese demand and the release of emergency reserves," Saxo Bank analysts say. Iran, however, said it wouldn't reopen the strait without concessions from the U.S., including a waiver of sanctions on its oil exports and freeing billions of dollars of blocked Iranian funds. Meanwhile, risks in the region remain high. The U.A.E. accused Iran of launching a missile attack on one of its ships, while Saudi Arabia said it extinguished a fire that broke out on Sunday at its Jazan refinery. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
0323 ET - Yields on U.K. government bonds climb due to elevated oil prices and inflation concerns as the U.S.-Iran conflict persists. Over the weekend, Iran issued new demands from the U.S. including compensation for war damage, in order to reach a peace deal. The new demands complicate the peace negotiations, potentially delaying an end to the conflict. Investors await this week's U.S. inflation data and the quarterly U.K. GDP estimate for the second quarter to gain insights on the state of the two economies. Ten-year gilt yields climb 0.4 basis points to 4.924%, Tradeweb data show.
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