The latest Market Talks covering Technology, Media and Telecom. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires at 4:20 ET, 12:20 ET and 16:50 ET.
1413 ET - Concerns about the returns on steadily rising artificial-intelligence spending should wane going forward, as earnings reports increasingly show AI monetization, JPMorgan analysts write in a note. Though most hyperscalers are expected to have negative free cash flow in 2027, "demand and order coverage are improving relative to capex, as evidenced by rising backlog-to-capex and book-to-bill ratios," the analysts write. "This suggests that monetization may start ramping faster than spending, which should support stronger future revenue growth and further alleviate concerns about ROIC." Backlogs are high and converting into recognized revenue growth, while demand also remains high and rising, the analysts add. (elias.schisgall@wsj.com)
1319 ET - Businesses are likely to continue pulling forward their spending on servers and storage arrays for at least a couple of years, Morgan Stanley analysts write in a note upgrading HPE, formerly known as Hewlett Packard Enterprise, to overweight. While accelerated enterprise spending won't last forever, and investors should be cautious as estimate revisions hit their peaks, Morgan Stanley's checks, surveys and analysis indicate "an infrastructure cycle that is proving both stronger and more durable than we previously anticipated," the analysts write. "While execution remains the key risk, we believe HPE now offers the best combination of earnings upside, valuation support and re-rating potential within our enterprise infrastructure OEM group." Shares gain 3.7% to extend this year's gain to 130%. (elias.schisgall@wsj.com)
1310 ET - Bitcoin accounted for just under 43% of the total volume traded in the cryptocurrency market in the month of July, says Cex.io in a note. That's the largest share bitcoin has taken of cryptocurrency volumes since early 2023, says the firm. "Historically, bitcoin's trading dominance tends to rise during the later stages of bear markets as investors rotate from altcoins into the relative safety of BTC," says Cex.io. The total market capitalization of the cryptocurrency market is at $2.19 trillion as of today, according to data from CoinMarketCap. That's down $10 billion over the past 30 days. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1157 ET - Apple raised the trade-in value of iPhone 15 and 16 models last week across key markets, Jefferies analysts say in a research note. Some media outlets including Mac Rumors saw the increase as a sign that price hikes were imminent for iPhone 17. But Jefferies analysts point out that Apple also dropped the trade-in price for certain models in China. "As trade-in prices are a monthly negotiated agreement between Apple and appointed dealers in each region, it may not have any implication for new iPhone selling prices," they write. "A higher trade-in value in the U.S. could drive stronger demand for the iPhone 17, but create more pressure on iPhone 18 sales given limited feature upgrades but assumed mid-teen % price hikes." Jefferies downgrades the stock to underperform from hold, cuts its price target to $263.66 from $285.56. Apple shares down 2% at midday. (connor.hart@wsj.com)
Apple is considering an upgrade for the iPhone 19 Pro Max, potentially increasing its memory to 16 gigabytes from 12 gigabytes, Jefferies analysts say in a research note, citing recent supply-chain checks. "We think this suggests Apple Intelligence would be unable to justify putting much more DRAM into the iPhone at the current memory price," the analysts write. "Moreover, should memory prices continue to rise more than expected in FY27, it is entirely possible that Apple would give up on this upgrade idea." They estimate that an additional 4 gigabytes of memory would likely add an extra $60 to $70 to the iPhone's bill of materials. Jefferies downgrades Apple and cuts its price target. Shares ebb 2%. (connor.hart@wsj.com)
1146 ET - SpaceX's new target of exiting the year with $100 billion in ARR is "likely very achievable," Deutsche Bank analysts write in a note. The two big contributors are likely to be Cursor, which the analysts expect to have benefited from the growth in agentic coding, and SpaceX's deals to sell cloud computing. The deals with Anthropic, Google, and an unnamed customer whom the analysts speculate could be the U.S. government, as well as one more neocloud deal expected before the year's end, could alone generate around $45 billion to $50 billion in ARR, the analysts write. SpaceX CEO Elon Musk said last week that the $100 billion target is "what we would achieve if we basically did nothing," adding that the final number will likely be higher. SpaceX trades down 0.9% at $131.87. (elias.schisgall@wsj.com)
1138 ET -- Jefferies analysts say recent supply-chain checks indicate that Apple has canceled its 20th anniversary, all-glass iPhone model due to poor production yield. "We view this as a major setback to efforts to bring in higher-priced iPhones amid soaring memory costs," they write in a research note. The phone, which the analysts estimate was supposed to be launched in September 2027, would have likely had a blended retail average selling price of $2,600. "More importantly, we believe the plan was to extend the all-glass features to future iPhone Pro and Pro Max models, further raising their ASP and margin." Without an all-glass model, Apple could be looking at lower average selling prices for years to come, even as memory prices continue to soar. Jefferies downgrades Apple to underperform from hold, and cuts its price target by 16% to $263.66. Apple's stock is off 2%. (connor.hart@wsj.com)
1110 ET - Revenue for Disney's experiences unit increased 10% during the latest quarter, buoyed in part by meaningful capacity expansions across its cruise lines. Benchmark analyst Mike Hickey says in a research note that Disney's recent roughly 50% increase in stateroom capacity created a clear revenue tailwind and should continue to support growth over the coming year, as the company annualizes the expanded fleet. "Despite the significant management and investor attention around fleet expansion, Cruise remains surprisingly small relative to Disney overall, representing an estimated 4.1% of fiscal 2026 revenue," Hickey adds. "We therefore view Cruise as an attractive and durable Experiences growth driver, but not large enough for future ship additions to materially change Disney's consolidated growth profile." (connor.hart@wsj.com)
0835 ET - Intel announces a $15 billion underwritten public offering of common stock. The chipmaker says it intends to use the net proceeds from the offering for general corporate purposes, which may include, but are not limited to, capital expenditures and working capital. The offering comes after Intel last month raised its forecast for capital expenditures for this year to more than $20 billion, up from $18 billion previously, and said next year's capex will be "significantly above" this year's level. The AI revolution has begun to benefit Intel because AI agents rely on CPUs that are the company's specialty. Intel says customers continue to signal a strong and sustainable demand environment, and that the offering is intended to further enable Intel to pursue the growth opportunities ahead. (connor.hart@wsj.com)
0626 ET - Issuance of new large-volume corporate debt--known as 'jumbo' debt--has increased sharply in 2026, continuing the trend from 2025, Goldman Sachs credit strategists say in a note. 'Jumbo' debt is an issuance valued at $10 billion or more at the time of announcement, the strategists say. In addition, the average tenor of tech sector debt is roughly 3.5 years longer than the broader U.S. investment-grade market, they say. "Technology has generated 60% of jumbo deals so far this year, and more than 20% of all U.S. dollar investment-grade new issue activity." These trends are expected to continue in the next few years, the strategists say. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
0344 ET - South Korea is seeking to usher in a new "golden age" of national growth by building regional high-tech industrial ecosystems, according to President Lee Jae Myung. Speaking at a meeting reviewing the government's mega projects on Monday, Lee called the next 12 months a critical time, urging officials to accelerate implementation and ensure the benefits of growth extend beyond the capital region. He said the planned Honam semiconductor cluster should be developed at a pace matching or surpassing Japan's Kumamoto tech hub. To speed development, Lee instructed the Defense Ministry to temporarily transfer operations from Gwangju Military Airport to another military airfield by mid-2028, clearing the way for early construction of the chip complex. (jie.yang@wsj.com)
0246 ET - Apple may keep price hikes minimal for its coming iPhone 18 Pro despite a sharp jump in production costs, according to research firm TrendForce. The cost of components used in the iPhone 18 Pro 256GB model is expected to surge about 38% on year, largely due to soaring memory prices. Memory chips accounted for just 10% of the phone's component costs a year ago, but that share is projected to exceed 40% by early 2027, TrendForce says. To avoid hurting demand, Apple may accept lower profit margins on the new model and could even raise prices on older iPhone models to help offset the higher costs, TrendForce says.
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