The latest Market Talks covering Commodities. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
0400 GMT - Permitting and construction risk for St. Barbara's 15-Mile and Simberi sulfide projects are more than priced in to the gold miner's stock at current levels, says Macquarie. The bank reinstates coverage of St. Barbara with an outperform recommendation and a target of A$0.96/share. The stock trades at an enterprise value per resource ounce of A$41/oz, Australia-based analysts at the bank say. That is "a material discount to our gold coverage mean of A$557/oz," they say. The company's sell-down at Simberi injects enough cash to fund the sulfide expansion while progressing the Touqyoy and 15-Mile Hub growth projects, the analysts say. Shares are up 3.4% at A$0.615. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)
0307 GMT - Crude palm oil prices are expected to moderate in 2H, mainly due to seasonally higher production and elevated Malaysian inventories, TA Securities analyst Angeline Chin says in a note. However, prices are expected to remain above 4,000 ringgit a ton, supported by Indonesia's biodiesel program, firmer soybean oil prices and stronger U.S. biofuel feedstock demand, she says. Festive restocking by key importing countries in late 3Q could help absorb part of the seasonal supply increase, while a strengthening El Nino remains an upside risk, although its impact on palm oil production is likely to emerge with a lag, she adds. TA Securities maintains an overweight rating on Malaysian plantation sector, pegging SD Guthrie, Kuala Lumpur Kepong, IOI, United Malacca and Kim Loong Resources at buy. (yingxian.wong@wsj.com)
0243 GMT - Palm oil rises in early Asian trade, driven by stronger soybean oil prices overnight on the Chicago Board of Trade, PhillipCapital says in a note. Stronger export data are also seen supporting CPO prices, it adds. Malaysia's palm oil exports for Aug. 1-10 are estimated to have risen 9.2% from the same period last month, according to cargo surveyor AmSpec Agri Malaysia. PhillipCapital expects prices to face resistance at 4,780 ringgit a ton and find support at 4,433 ringgit a ton. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for October delivery is up 14 ringgit at 4,737 ringgit a ton. (yingxian.wong@wsj.com)
0235 GMT - Iron ore prices are higher in early Asian trade amid potential supply disruptions. More workers have joined a strike at the Port Hedland iron ore export hub in Western Australia, ANZ Research analysts say in a research note. Although vessels continue to load, there are mounting risks of future disruptions, they say. Still, demand in China has continued to be weak with July's trade data showing iron ore imports fell 4% on month, they note. The most actively traded September iron ore contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange is up 1.3% at 721.5 yuan a ton. (sherry.qin@wsj.com)
0232 GMT - Copper prices are higher in early Asian trade, supported by tight near-term supply and expectations of constrained mine output, analysts say. The market remains broadly bullish, driven by a weaker dollar and firm supply fundamentals, Baocheng Futures analysts write in a note. Global copper-mine supply growth could turn negative, while insufficient capital spending is expected to constrain longer-term supply, they say. Copper's near-term outlook remains bullish, though high prices are increasingly weighing on demand and the market is likely to remain focused on the tug-of-war around recent highs, they add. The three-month LME copper contract is up 0.1% at $14,167.00 a ton. (jiahui.huang@wsj.com; @ivy_jiahuihuang)
0201 GMT - While the Democratic Republic of Congo's ban on copper-concentrate exports is unlikely to have a major impact on global supplies, it "has injected fresh bullish impetus into an already buoyant market," says BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions. Copper prices are already trading around record highs and the near-term trajectory points to further possible gains, BMI says. "Copper is being buoyed by positive sentiment towards the global economy as hopes of a deal between the U.S. and Iran are renewed, intense stocking up on the Comex as U.S. tariff risks mount, a slightly weaker U.S. dollar in recent days, and the DRC's announcement--despite its minimal material impact on physical trade," it says. LME three-month copper is up 0.2% at $14,190 a metric ton. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)
0103 GMT - Crude palm oil prices could trade between 4,400 ringgit and 4,600 ringgit a ton in the near term, supported by rising geopolitical risks, strengthening El Nino conditions and higher biodiesel demand in Indonesia, says Ivy Ng Lee Fang of CIMB Securities. Stronger El Nino conditions could weigh on Southeast Asian yields with a lag, posing downside risks to supply from 2027 onwards, the analyst says. Disruptions in sunflower-oil exports from Russia and Ukraine could also boost palm oil substitution demand ahead of India's festival season. CIMB raises its CPO price forecasts for 2026 and 2027 by 50 ringgit a ton each to 4,450 ringgit and 4,550 ringgit a ton, respectively. It remains overweight on Malaysia's plantation sector, and pegs IOI, Kuala Lumpur Kepong and Hap Seng Plantations as its top picks. (yingxian.wong@wsj.com)
0055 GMT - Gold gains in early Asian trade. The yellow metal appears to be supported by a weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs report, says Exness's Inki Cho in commentary. The data weighed on monetary policy expectations, with markets now anticipating no change to interest rates from the Federal Reserve at its next meeting, boosting the precious metal, the strategist says. A higher interest-rate environment typically weighs on non-interest yielding assets such as gold. Central bank purchases continue to underpin gold over the longer term, he says, noting that China has kept its reserve accumulation running and added 20 tons in July. Spot gold is up 0.5% at $4,412.50 an ounce.(megan.cheah@wsj.com)
0051 GMT - Malaysia's August palm oil stockpile increase should be limited as seasonally higher production is expected to be partly offset by resilient exports, Hong Leong IB analyst Chye Wen Fei says in a note. Exports are expected to be helped by India's festive-season restocking and palm oil's price competitiveness against soybean oil, she says. Chye expects elevated crude palm oil prices to persist through 2H amid tightening supply and resilient demand. She favors planters with predominantly upstream operations and greater exposure to Malaysia, given their higher earnings leverage to CPO price strength and lower exposure to foreign regulatory risks. Hong Leong maintains an overweight rating on Malaysian plantation sector, pegging Hap Seng Plantations as top pick. (yingxian.wong@wsj.com)
0011 GMT - The combination of improving positioning, supportive flow dynamics, lower real yields, a steeper yield curve, easing Fed expectations and persistent central bank buying has helped propel gold back toward $4,400 per ounce, says Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone. The question now is whether the market has sufficient momentum to push through $4,500 per ounce and ultimately challenge the highs seen during April and May near $4,800 per ounce. No one knows, but when technical breakouts align with supportive macro fundamentals and powerful flow dynamics, trends can often extend much further than many expect, he adds. (james.glynn@wsj.com; X @JamesGlynnWSJ)
2357 GMT - An interesting aspect of gold's current rally is that it has happened while crypto has struggled to generate similar upside momentum, says Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone. This suggests that the rally is not simply a broad-based currency debasement trade, but one driven by more idiosyncratic factors specific to the precious metals complex. Equally notable is that gold has appreciated despite a firmer U.S. dollar and a 5% rally in crude oil prices. Those traditional relationships have temporarily broken down, indicating that asset-specific flows are proving to be the dominant driver, Weston says. (james.glynn@wsj.com; X @JamesGlynnWSJ)
2350 GMT - Gold has firmly moved back onto traders' radar, says Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone. Having broken out of the consolidation range that held from late June through to Aug. 3, both gold and silver have staged rallies, with gold now testing $4,400 per ounce, he says. The breakout above the July highs has been accompanied by decisive buying pressure, with the subsequent momentum suggesting that the bulls are in control, Weston says. Client activity has also picked up, with positioning skewed to the long side. 60% of all open gold positions are now held long, he adds.
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