The latest Market Talks covering Commodities. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
0911 ET - The latest in the back-and-forth offensives between Russia and Ukraine is lifting CBOT wheat futures, with the most-active contract up 2.4% premarket. "Wheat futures are rallying following two grain terminals at Russia's Novorossiysk port that handle roughly 15 mmt of grain exports per year were hit by Ukrainian drones overnight," says AgMarket.net in a note. The Novorossiysk port is Russia's largest for grain exports, and analysts say that while the extent of the damage to the port is unknown, Russia is expected to struggle to ship its typical volumes of wheat and other grains. Most-active corn is up 0.6%, and soybeans rise 0.3%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
0649 ET - Palm oil ended lower following overnight losses in soybean oil. Meanwhile, the expectations of Malaysia's abundant tropical oil supply also pushed the price lower, Kenanga Futures says in a research note. However, anticipations of stronger exports to India and higher crude oil prices amid U.S.-Middle East tensions may cap losses, the brokerage added. Kenanga sets the support and resistance levels for the October futures contract at 4,685 ringgit and 4,790 ringgit, respectively. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for October delivery ended 51 ringgit lower at 4,697 ringgit a ton. (sherry.qin@wsj.com)
0448 ET - Glencore's marketing division is underappreciated by the market, Citi bank analysts write. The division houses its metals and energy traders, and posted $3.3 billion for the first half of the year compared with $4 billion in the first half of 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine. It has made more money in an arguably disproportionately less volatile environment, they say. Conflict in the Middle East has disrupted energy and freight markets, shifted trade flows and widened regional price differentials. This has created substantial trading opportunities. Glencore continues to show that its traders can continue to generate cash every time volatility hits commodities markets, the analyst say. Shares rise 0.4% to 576.60 pence. (adam.whittaker@wsj.com)
0421 ET - The downturn in oil demand is uneven across fuels, with industrial products bearing the brunt of the shock from disrupted Middle East trade and high prices, the IEA says. Naphtha demand is expected to fall 2.6% in 2026 as interruptions to Middle Eastern exports squeeze flows to Asia. Gasoil demand is forecast to drop 1.9%, with elevated diesel prices discouraging freight activity and industrial production. Jet fuel and kerosene are instead proving more resilient, the IEA says, with consumption expected to decline by just 30,000 barrels a day from a year earlier. At 7.8 million barrels a day, jet and kerosene demand this year will be only slightly below 2019 levels when consumption averaged 7.9 million barrels a day. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
0415 ET - Oil prices extend gains for another session as markets remain skeptical that a deal to restore shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is imminent. In midmorning European trading, Brent crude is up 0.6% to $89.49 a barrel, while WTI futures rise 0.6% to $83.67 a barrel. "Officials indicated that Iran-Oman talks were at an advanced stage, while President Trump hardened his stance toward Iran and introduced additional demands," says Soojin Kim from MUFG. "Uncertainty over the timing and terms of a Hormuz agreement is likely to keep a substantial geopolitical risk premium in oil prices." Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency said global oil demand is set for a deeper contraction this year as renewed hostilities in the Middle East are derailing a recovery in supplies. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
0357 ET - Gold prices rise as traders await the release of key U.S. inflation data. "Traders are now focusing on today's U.S. CPI print to gauge whether the recent technical breakout above $4,200 has enough momentum to carry prices towards the next major hurdle, the 200-day moving average near $4,500," Saxo Bank analysts say. "ETF inflows extended to a fifth consecutive session, lifting total holdings to a six-week high and providing further evidence of renewed investor demand." In midmorning European trading, New York gold futures rise 0.6% to $4,469.30 a troy ounce. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
2333 ET - Copper prices are higher in early Asian trade, supported by tightening supply fundamentals, analysts say. The copper-concentrate market remains characterized by tight ore supply and weak smelting economics, Dongwu Futures analysts write in a note. Smelters continue to restock only as needed, while the copper-concentrate export ban in the Democratic Republic of Congo is exacerbating downward pressure on treatment charges, with little sign of a near-term recovery, they add. Overall, underlying supply-demand story remains supportive, with tight copper concentrate supply and solid incremental demand from the power grid and emerging sectors, they say. The three-month LME copper contract is up 0.2% at $14,179.00 a ton. (jiahui.huang@wsj.com; @ivy_jiahuihuang)
2249 ET - Palm oil falls in Asian trading amid profit taking. Fundamentally, palm oil prices remain underpinned by resilient crude oil prices and biodiesel demand, although rising production and inventories could cap further gains, AmInvestment Bank says in a note. Technical analysis also indicates CPO futures are showing bullish momentum, it adds. AmInvestment Bank expects palm oil prices to face resistance at 4,750 ringgit a ton and find support at 4,680 ringgit a ton. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for October delivery is lower by 27 ringgit at 4,721 ringgit a ton. (yingxian.wong@wsj.com)
2245 ET - Iron ore prices are higher in early Asian trade, thanks to a break in oversupply. Iron ore shipment arrivals at Chinese ports are expected to be stable in the first half of August while steel mills' molten iron production has rebounded, Nanhua Futures says in a research note. However, iron ore could see limited upside given the expected oversupply in 2H, the brokerage adds. Meanwhile, China's steel demand remains weak as China's July manufacturing PMI fell on month. The most actively traded September iron ore contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange is up 0.3% at 721.5 yuan a ton. (sherry.qin@wsj.com)
2225 ET - There's a risk of softer lithium-market conditions in 1H 2027 as concerns about oversupply re-emerge, says Macquarie. That could be "potentially exacerbated by an accumulation of ESS [energy storage system] inventories across the value chain over the next six months," it says. To be sure, investors appear to have at least partially priced in this risk already, says the bank. Near-term conditions meanwhile "appear more constructive, underpinned by a tightening spot market and ongoing inventory drawdowns across the supply chain," Macquarie says. IGO is the bank's top pick among ASX-listed lithium stocks. Macquarie cites attractive free cash flow yields across varying lithium-price scenarios. IGO shares are up 2.8% at A$8.02. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)
2056 ET - Gold edges higher in early Asian trade, as investors await U.S. inflation data for cues on the Federal Reserve's policy path. A stronger print could reinforce a tighter policy and add further pressure to gold, says Tony Sage, CEO of Critical Metals, in a note. On the other hand, a softer outcome could offer some relief, he adds. Lower interest rates typically benefit non-interest-bearing bullion. Spot gold is 0.2% higher at $4,380.12 an ounce.(amanda.lee@wsj.com)
1558 ET - Live cattle and lean hog futures on the CME end the day lower, with cattle falling 0.3% to $2.2625 a pound, and hogs down 0.5% to 83.3 cents a pound. For hogs, underwhelming demand for pork ahead of the Labor Day holiday is pressuring futures, Steiner Consulting Group says in a note. "Different from a year ago when pork supply tightened up just as demand and prices for other proteins were surging, this year the pendulum has swung the other way," says the firm. "Key export items such as hams and picnics [the lower foreleg of the pig] have struggled to gain traction, negatively impacting the cutout and lean hog values."
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