Below are the most important global events likely to affect FX and bond markets in the week starting Aug. 17.
Minutes to the recent Federal Reserve meeting, where U.S. interest rates were left on hold, will be closely monitored for any clues on whether rates could rise next month.
In Europe, flash purchasing managers' surveys for August will give a steer on how economies are faring in an environment of high energy prices and heightened geopolitical uncertainty. Inflation figures are due from the U.K. and Canada.
In Asia, a deluge of Chinese data will offer fresh clues on the health of the world's second-largest economy, while Japan's growth figures are also in focus.
Investors will continue to keep a close eye on oil prices and developments in the Middle East as they hope for a U.S.-Iran agreement that could lead to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
U.S.
Minutes to the U.S. Federal Reserve's meeting in July are due on Wednesday and could give clues as to whether interest rates might rise in September.
Weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs data combined with a slight reduction in inflation have caused investors to pare back their expectations for when the Fed will hike rates.
Currently, U.S. money markets price only a 27% chance of a 25 basis-point rate increase next month, with a rate increase not fully priced until early next year, LSEG data showed.
Still, the Federal Open Market Committee last month voted 9-3 to leave the federal funds rate in a range between 3.5% and 3.75%, with three members favoring a rate increase in order to tame above-target inflation.
"Wednesday's FOMC minutes will be closely examined for the extent of disagreement within the Fed," Capital.com senior market analyst Daniela Hathorn said in a note.
Recent weak U.S. jobs and producer-price inflation data as well as "relatively benign" CPI inflation strengthen the argument that the Fed "can afford to remain patient" and keep rates unchanged for now, Hathorn said. "However, the inflation story isn't entirely comfortable. CPI is moving in the right direction, but remains above target, while longer-dated Treasury yields remain elevated," she added.
Flash U.S. purchasing managers data for August on Friday, in addition to the Empire State manufacturing survey on Monday and the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey on Thursday, also for August, will provide updated information on the current state of private-sector activity and sentiment.
Other data due this week include July industrial production, July import and export price indexes, July housing starts and July pending home sales on Tuesday. Weekly jobless claims and the Conference Board leading indicators for July are due Thursday.
The Treasury will auction $16 billion in 20-year bonds on Wednesday and $8 billion in 30-year inflation-protected TIPS on Thursday.
Canada
Canada's inflation data for July will be released on Monday. Annual inflation eased to 2.8% in June from 3.2% in May as gasoline prices increased at a slower rate. Excluding gasoline, inflation was unchanged at 2.2%.
"Overall, June's report was consistent with the Bank of Canada's latest assessment that underlying inflation remains close to target," RBC Economics economist Abbey Xu said in a note. While the path for headline inflation remains highly sensitive to unpredictable global developments, contained broader price pressures and firming economic growth support the case for the BOC to leave interest rates unchanged through the remainder of 2026, she said.
Canadian retail sales figures for June are released Friday.
Eurozone
Flash purchasing managers data for August from France, Germany and the eurozone on Friday will be the highlight of an otherwise light week for economic data in the 21-nation currency area.
Investec anticipates a fall in the composite eurozone index "as the continued stalemate between the U.S. and Iran over the Strait of Hormuz has sent oil and gas prices higher again," analyst Lottie Gosling said in a note.
Also on Friday, the French business survey for August is due, while the European Central Bank will release its latest consumer expectations survey.
Germany's ZEW economic sentiment index for August is released on Tuesday, eurozone balance of payments for June on Wednesday. Final harmonized eurozone CPI and German PPI, both for July, are due on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively.
Germany will sell August 2036-dated Bunds on Wednesday, while France will sell short- and medium-term nominal bonds as well as inflation-linked bonds on Thursday.
U.K.
The key releases among a raft of U.K. data this week will include jobs figures on Tuesday and July inflation data Wednesday. These could provide key signals on the prospects of the Bank of England raising interest rates later this year.
Markets currently fully price in a potential BOE rate rise by year end, and a possible second rate increase by June 2027, LSEG data show.
"We think wage growth remains the key labor market indicator as it continues to gauge the extent of second round inflation effects from the Gulf conflict," RBC Capital Markets strategists said in a note.
For the inflation data, TD Securities expects a modest rise, mainly driven by the cap increase by U.K. energy regulator Ofgem.
Public sector finances data and retail sales data for July, as well as flash purchasing managers' surveys for August, are due on Friday. Rightmove's August house price survey is also due on Monday.
The U.K. is due to sell July 2036 gilts via auction on Tuesday.
Scandinavia
The Riksbank announces its policy decision on Thursday.
At its last meeting in June, Sweden's central bank held rates at 1.75% but said there was some probability that rates will be raised later this year. The bank said inflation was low but the risks of it becoming too high had increased as the Middle East conflict drove up energy prices.
At this month's meeting, the Riksbank could highlight Sweden's growth resilience and the risk of inflation settling above target, J.P. Morgan's Allan Monks said in a note.
"With no new forecasts to update, and questions about some of the moves in the recent data, the message is likely to be subtle," he said. However, the Riksbank could show more openness to higher rates in the coming months, especially with rates starting at the lower end of the range it views as neutral in neither restricting or stimulating economic activity, he said.
Denmark, Sweden and Norway will hold bond auctions on Wednesday.
Japan
Government data due Monday is expected to show that the Japanese economy expanded 0.5% quarter-over-quarter during the April-June period, according to economists polled by data provider Quick. In the January-March quarter, the economy grew 0.5%.
The government is also scheduled to release machinery orders for June on Wednesday, July's trade balance data on Thursday and nationwide consumer price figures for July on Friday.
The Bank of Japan is scheduled to make outright purchases in multiple sectors of the Japanese government bond market on Wednesday. These comprise tenors of 1-3 years, 5-10 years and over 25 years. The planned purchases are expected to support the bond market that day.
The Ministry of Finance is scheduled to auction about 2.5 trillion yen of 5-year sovereign notes on Tuesday and around 700 billion yen of 20-year JGBs on Thursday. The new 20-year JGB will be a reopening of the July 2026 issue.
Overnight index swap markets "have already priced in a substantial amount of additional BoJ tightening, with both a terminal rate of 1.75% and a further rate hike by October this year effectively fully discounted," Barclays strategists said. "Against this backdrop, investor demand for the 5y sector, where policy-rate expectations account for a relatively larger share of yield determination, will be a key focus," they added.
Australia
Data on wages growth through the second quarter on Wednesday will be the highlight of the week in Australia. Wages are a key indicator given that inflation remains elevated. The Reserve Bank of Australia left interest rates on hold this month, but Governor Michele Bullock also wanted to remind financial markets that a further interest-rate hike can't be ruled out.
Economists expect annual wage growth of around 3.2%, which should be enough for the RBA to remain sidelined. Still, there is a risk of a higher result given the intense pressures on household budgets since the start of the year. Employment data for July on Thursday will be equally important. Unemployment remains low at 4.4%, but it is expected to rise slightly before the end of the year.
Rising unemployment will further deter the RBA from hiking interest rates.
Most economists expect that the RBA is done for now, and the next move in the official cash rate will be a cut in late 2027 as inflation finally returns to target.
China
China will release a batch of July data on Monday, including industrial production, retail sales, fixed-asset investment and housing prices that will show how the economy is faring at the start of the third quarter.
Economists expect to see weakness across most indicators, a result that could firm up expectations for more policy support.
A Wall Street Journal poll projects a slowdown in industrial production last month, tipping on-year growth at 4.8% versus 5.3% in June. FAI is expected to have contracted further year to date, while the property sector remains stuck in the doldrums. Retail sales - a gauge of consumption - could offer a bright spot, with the WSJ poll guiding for a rise of 1.4% in July versus 1.0% the prior month.
Goldman Sachs economists expect the industrial output print to reflect softer export growth, weaker manufacturing activity and a sharper contraction in steel production and demand. Favorable base effects should flatter retail sales although the boost from the government's consumer-goods trade-in program is fading, Goldman said.
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