The war in Ukraine is again threatening to spill directly into global food markets.
A major Ukrainian attack on Russia's Black Sea port of Novorossiysk forced two large grain terminals to halt operations Wednesday. Russia is the world's largest wheat exporter, and Novorossiysk is one of its most important outlets to global buyers.
Chicago wheat futures jumped about 3% after the attack. Russia's agriculture ministry said it was working to redirect exports through alternative routes.
On Thursday, Russia struck Izmail, Ukraine's key grain-export port on the Danube, damaging port infrastructure and knocking out power.
Ukraine has increasingly relied on its Danube ports as an alternative to its main Black Sea export terminals. The river was already suffering from restricted barge capacity due to exceptionally low water levels after months of heat and drought. Thursday's attack on Izmail further complicated that fallback route.
The immediate impact may be limited if the terminals reopen quickly. But the possibility that both Russia and Ukraine could increasingly target the infrastructure that moves grain out of the Black Sea could pose bigger risks for agricultural markets.
For the 2026-27 crop year, the U.S. Department of Agriculture on Wednesday cut its wheat-export forecasts for both Russia and Ukraine because of logistical disruptions arising from increased conflict.
The USDA expects global wheat ending stocks to total 273.3 million metric tons -- up slightly from its July forecast. U.S. supplies are expected to tighten much more sharply, with domestic ending stocks down 22% from last year.
The disruption could also have implications for stocks. Companies that trade and process agricultural commodities, such as Archer-Daniels-Midland and Bunge Global, are among those to watch.
Higher wheat prices do not automatically mean higher profits. But if buyers are forced to replace Russian or Ukrainian grain with supplies from the Americas or elsewhere, it could create more opportunities for ADM and Bunge to profit from differences in grain prices and transportation costs.
ADM recently raised its 2026 earnings outlook as its Agricultural Services & Oilseeds operating profit more than doubled in the second quarter. Bunge also raised its full-year adjusted profit forecast, driven by a stronger outlook for soybean and softseed processing and refining, even as it lowered its expectations for Grain Merchandising and Milling.
ADM shares were up about 0.7% Thursday afternoon, while Bunge gained roughly 1.2%.
Meanwhile, bread and baked-goods makers such as Flowers Foods and J&J Snack Foods, as well as packaged-food companies with sizable cereal businesses such as General Mills and Post Holdings, could face higher ingredient costs if the supply disruption continues.
Large food manufacturers often carry inventories and use commodity hedges to reduce exposure to future price increases, but a sustained wheat rally could eventually raise costs as those protections roll off. Margins could come under pressure if costs rise faster than companies can raise prices.
Investors so far aren't treating the latest disruption as an immediate earnings threat. Shares in Flowers Foods gained about 5% in Thursday trading, J&J Snack Foods rose 1.5%, General Mills added 1.3%, and Post Holdings was up 0.5%.
For now, this situation remains far from a global food crisis. But if attacks keep Russian and Ukrainian ports offline for weeks rather than days, the effects could spread from wheat futures into freight rates, food-company margins, and consumer prices.
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