Newmont Corp has returned 66% in the year since we recommended it as a Barron's stock pick, handily beating out the 30% increase in the S&P 500 Index over the period. Gold mining stocks as a group didn't quite keep pace either, as the VanEck Gold Miners ETF is up 54%.
For Newmont, the historic rally in precious metals has certainly helped, as the price of gold climbed to a record $5,589 an ounce earlier this year. But that doesn't tell the whole story. Even with gold correcting down to a current level just below $4,500, Newmont has continued to outperform, up 19% year to date, compared with the price of gold hanging on to a 2% gain.
While a repeat of the last 12 months will likely be tough to pull off, we believe the stock trading at just around 11 times earnings is still a Buy. Newmont is positioned to continue capitalizing on its sector-leading position with elevated metals prices driving record cash flow and earnings.
Ryan McIntyre, President at Sprott Inc., who provided a bullish perspective for precious metals in our original article last year, still likes the backdrop for gold. "Our outlook for gold remains constructive given persistent geopolitical and economic uncertainty, robust central bank demand, and gold's expanding role as a strategic reserve asset," he writes in an email.
It's a compelling setup for Newmont, the world's largest gold miner, that also has significant production of other metals including silver and copper. The company expects to produce 5.3 million ounces of gold this year, with multiple projects worldwide contributing to near-term output growth and longer-term potential.
Guiding for an all-in-sustaining-cost, or AISC, an industry metric for average cost of production, of $1,680 an ounce on a byproduct basis, Newmont generates substantial margins for every ounce of gold it sells at realized prices.
In its second quarter of 2026 earnings posted July 23, Newmont delivered adjusted earnings of $2.10 per share, an increase of 47% compared with the prior year quarter. Its $2.2 billion in free cash flow was a second-quarter company record, even as production dipped 1% sequentially from the first quarter. Despite some operational challenges, including an earthquake in Southeast Australia that temporarily halted production at its Cadia mine, Newmont CEO Natascha Viljoen reiterated full-year output and investment targets. Wall Street expects Newmont to reach $9.47 in EPS this year, representing a 38% increase from the $6.89 record in 2025, according to data compiled by FactSet.
Newmont's fundamental strength underscores what we like about the stock. The company's size helps mitigate operational risks with strategic flexibility smaller miners can't match. Certainly, lower realized gold prices would impact earnings, but Newmont has a proven ability to withstand market cycles. In other words, a quality stock for the long run.
Recent developments further derisk shares as an investment. Newmont on Aug. 10 said it reached an agreement with Barrick Mining resolving all outstanding disputes related to the Nevada Gold Mines joint venture. The deal brings previously excluded properties including Barrick's Fourmile and Newmont's Fiberline and Mike projects into partnership, removing an overhang for both companies that had been in limbo since 2019. Newmont says the resolution maximizes the value of the partnership.
Even as Newmont agreed to pay Barrick $1.95 billion in consideration, shares of Newmont climbed by 3% on the day of the announcement, while Barrick stock fell by more than 6%. These moves suggest the market perceived Newmont emerged the winner of the dispute.
Newmont continues to advance its growth pipeline. Regulatory approvals were secured in British Columbia Canada for the Red Chris block cave project, a major copper deposit that furthers Newmont's goals of diversifying its production profile. A final investment decision hasn't yet been made. There is also progress on the Tanami Expansion 2 in Australia, an ultra-low-cost, high grade deposit expected to add 150,000 to 200,000 ounces of gold a year in annual production between 2028 and 2032.
Overall, Newmont seems like a good option for investors seeking exposure to precious metals, backed by a rock solid balance sheet. The outlook is for the company Newmont to continue rewarding shareholders.
In a July note, Stifel analyst Ralph Profiti wrote that "Newmont's outstanding share count has fallen by 9% since February 2024," repurchasing $1.9 billion in stock just in the last quarter with $4.3 billion remaining under an outstanding buyback authorization. Newmont currently holds a net cash position of $3.4 billion, ample liquidity to sustain a world-class mining portfolio. Profiti rates shares of Newmont as a Buy, with a price target of $165. This implies 43% upside from the recent closing price and is among the highest on Wall Street.
In a bullish scenario for the price of gold where the metal reclaims its all-time high above $5,600 an ounce, Newmont stock can shine and significantly outperform again.
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