The latest Market Talks covering Commodities. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
0657 ET - European gas markets are facing renewed supply pressures as geopolitical tensions and infrastructure disruptions push prices higher. The Netherlands-based TTF September contract trades just shy of 60 euros a megawatt-hour and is headed for a weekly gain of 6%. "European and Asian gas markets find themselves in the high-priced part of yet another hope-disillusionment cycle of Middle East negotiation attempts," says Jan-Eric Fahnrich from Rystad Energy. Uncertainty surrounding negotiations between Iran and Oman over the Strait of Hormuz is adding volatility, while storage levels lag behind last year, with EU facilities 59% full. However, Europe may attract additional U.S. LNG cargoes from October, alongside diverted shipments from Egypt, which could ease some supply concerns, according to Fahnrich. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
0623 ET - Palm oil rises during Asian trading, supported by expectations of strong demand from major buyer India ahead of the festive season, Kenanga Futures says in a note. Higher tropical-oil inventories and uncertainty over U.S.-Iran peace negotiations may be capping further gains, it adds. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for October delivery rose 27 ringgit to 4,724 ringgit a ton. (kimberley.kao@wsj.com)
0453 ET - Antofagasta's modest first-half earnings beat is countered by a copper guidance cut that will likely lower full-year Ebitda expectations by a low single-digit percentage, J.P. Morgan analysts write. The miner said it now expects full-year copper production between 625,000 and 655,000 metric tons from a prior target of 650,000 to 700,000 metric tons. This is due to heavy rains in Chile that temporarily halted mining. Shares fall 5.6% to 3,804 pence.(adam.whittaker@wsj.com)
0401 ET - Oil prices fall as investors assess a weaker demand outlook and continue to monitor developments in the Middle East, though talks to reopen the Strait of Hormuz remain stalled. In early European trading, Brent crude is down 1.5% to $87.62 a barrel, while WTI futures decline 1.6% to $81.96 a barrel. The IEA estimates a deficit of 1.8 million barrels a day in the third quarter as higher fuel prices weigh on consumption, while OPEC also cut its demand-growth forecast. "Going forward, progress on restoring Hormuz traffic remains the key catalyst for prices, while tight global balances should keep oil supported despite signs that higher prices are beginning to weigh on demand," says Soojin Kim from MUFG.(giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
0353 ET - Gold prices ease in early European trading after rising in the previous session, as U.S. inflation data came in line with expectations, reinforcing bets that the Federal Reserve will keep rates on hold in September. New York futures are down 0.8% to $4,433.80 a troy ounce, though they remain 3% higher on the week. "U.S. consumer prices increased just 0.1% month-on-month in July, suggesting that inflationary pressure from the earlier energy-price shock is moderating, while recent weakness in the labour market has further reduced the case for immediate tightening," says Soojin Kim from MUFG. Traders now await the Fed's upcoming PPI data for further clues on the rate outlook. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
0300 ET - Gold is likely to continue serving as a potential hedge against currency weakness and the risks associated with persistently high government debt and fiscal deficits, says T. Rowe Price. "With debt and deficits unlikely to decline meaningfully and potentially increasing as a result of additional war-related spending, we continue to believe that gold can play a valuable long-term hedging role," says Rick de los Reyes, head of commodities at T. Rowe Price. Gold's earlier weakness appears more closely related to concerns over higher real interest rates than to a deterioration in the longer-term investment case, he says in a note. Higher real rates are generally associated with lower gold prices, while falling real rates are typically supportive of gold. Spot gold is down 0.6% at $4,380.31 an ounce, according to LSEG. (monica.gupta@wsj.com)
0300 ET - Antofagasta's guidance cut for copper will be in focus and suggests that it is the miner most affected by Chile's severe wet weather, RBC Capital Markets analyst Ben Davis writes. The miner said alongside first-half earnings that it now sees full-year copper production between 625,000 and 655,000 metric tons after production at its Los Pelambres mine north of Santiago was temporarily stopped due to heavy rain and power outages. The storms have taken around 10,000 to 15,000 tons of production offline, he adds. It had previously seen between 650,000 and 700,000 metric tons. Shares closed Wednesday at 4029.00 pence. (adam.whittaker@wsj.com)
2306 ET - Palm oil falls in Asian trading, tracking softer soybean oil prices overnight on the Chicago Board of Trade. Technical analysis suggests CPO futures prices might consolidate in the near term after the recent rally, as buying momentum has weakened, RHB says in a note. However, the broader outlook remains positive, with prices expected to find support before attempting another move higher toward the 4,900 ringgit a ton resistance level, it adds. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for October delivery is 6 ringgit lower at 4,691 ringgit a ton. (yingxian.wong@wsj.com)
2302 ET - Iron ore prices are flat in early Asia trade. End-user consumption is recovering from low levels, but weak steelmaker profitability is limiting the scope for a meaningful improvement in ore demand, Baocheng Futures analysts write in a note. On the supply side, port arrivals fell temporarily due to typhoon-related disruptions, but miners' shipments remain elevated, suggesting arrivals are likely to recover, the analysts say. Overseas supply remains ample, although domestic mine output is weakening, they add. The most actively traded January iron ore contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange is flat at 705.50 yuan a ton. (jiahui.huang@wsj.com; @ivy_jiahuihuang)
2228 ET - Copper falls in Asian trading amid signs of cooling Chinese demand. The Yangshan premium, or the premium paid on top of the benchmark LME copper price for refined copper to be imported into China, slipped to $96 a ton, after reaching $115 a ton last month amid strong demand, ANZ Research analysts say in commentary. This suggests higher prices have cooled demand and pushed Chinese buyers to the sidelines, ANZ adds. The three-month LME copper contract is 0.3% lower at $14,090.00 a ton. (tracy.qu@wsj.com)
2029 ET - Gold rises in early Asian trade. Expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike were pared back following the U.S. inflation data, as July consumer prices rose only marginally from June, say ANZ Research analysts in a note. The data suggests that the Fed is likely to remain on hold at its next meeting, leaving the market pricing only a 40% chance of a rate hike, the analysts say. "This continues the steady stream of data that have tempered expectations of monetary tightening and should provide further support for gold in the coming months," they add. A higher interest rate environment usually weighs on non-interest yielding assets such as the yellow metal. Spot gold is up 0.5% at $4,433.11 an ounce. (megan.cheah@wsj.com)
1541 ET - In today's WASDE report, the USDA says that it lowered its outlook for beef production in 2026 due to "a slower rate of steer and heifer slaughter through the end of the year." For pork the outlook is cut on a slower rate of slaughter and lighter-weight animals. The USDA made a note in today's report that its outlook for beef is assuming that the reopening of the U.S.-Mexico border to feeder cattle has occurred in the Douglas, Ariz. port, but not yet for other ports. "Subsequent forecasts will reflect officially announced changes in policy when they occur," the USDA says. Live cattle futures finished down 1.1% to $2.23875 a pound, while hogs settled up 0.3% to 83.55 cents a pound.
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