Vibes matter with tax, so here’s how Healey can deliver a feel-good Budget

cityam08-13

John Healey will face pressure to give the UK economy a much-needed boost. We may think it is easy to try to predict how a major tax announcement may impact sentiment based on whether it’s a give or a...

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We may think it is easy to try to predict how a major tax announcement may impact sentiment based on whether it’s a give or a...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cityam.com/vibes-matter-with-tax-so-heres-how-healey-can-deliver-a-feel-good-budget/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"cityam_highlight","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Vibes matter with tax, so here’s how Healey can deliver a feel-good Budget</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nVibes matter with tax, so here’s how Healey can deliver a feel-good Budget\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-08-13 12:48 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.cityam.com/vibes-matter-with-tax-so-heres-how-healey-can-deliver-a-feel-good-budget/><strong>cityam</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>John Healey will face pressure to give the UK economy a much-needed boost. We may think it is easy to try to predict how a major tax announcement may impact sentiment based on whether it’s a give or a...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cityam.com/vibes-matter-with-tax-so-heres-how-healey-can-deliver-a-feel-good-budget/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"BK4211","symbol_name":"区域性银行","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://www.cityam.com/vibes-matter-with-tax-so-heres-how-healey-can-deliver-a-feel-good-budget/","article_id":"2659384051","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://www.cityam.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/Chancellor-John-Healey-2.jpg?w=400&h=225&crop=1"],"rights":{"source":"cityam_highlight","url":"https://www.cityam.com/vibes-matter-with-tax-so-heres-how-healey-can-deliver-a-feel-good-budget/","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2659384051","pubTimestamp":1786596480,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"cityam_highlight","name":"cityam"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"John Healey will face pressure to give the UK economy a much-needed boost. We may think it is easy to try to predict how a major tax announcement may impact sentiment based on whether it’s a give or a take. but the evidence shows, there’s no clear correlation between tax cuts and positive reaction, or tax rises and negativity, says Tim SarsonI’ve just come back from a two-month break. A chance to take myself away from the daily grind, see some interesting places, and effect a bit of a reboot. And I arrive back in the UK to find something similar has happened in the world of politics. Our ruling party decided to switch the machine off and on again, downloaded a software update, and has emerged with a new Prime Minister and front bench.The underlying operating system may be unchanged, but the font and wallpaper look strikingly different. It’s out with the restrained, monochrome style of the old version, and in with something more bouncy, rather more informal and substantially more Northe","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"cityam.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"BK4211":"区域性银行","NIC":"Nicolet Bankshares Inc.","BK4181":"酒店及度假村房地产投资信托","IHT":"InnSuites Hospitality Trust","BK4218":"酒店及度假村房地产信托"},"translate_title":"氛围与税收息息相关，以下是希利如何制定令人满意的预算","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"NIC":1,"IHT":1},"content_text":"John Healey will face pressure to give the UK economy a much-needed boost. We may think it is easy to try to predict how a major tax announcement may impact sentiment based on whether it’s a give or a take. but the evidence shows, there’s no clear correlation between tax cuts and positive reaction, or tax rises and negativity, says Tim SarsonI’ve just come back from a two-month break. A chance to take myself away from the daily grind, see some interesting places, and effect a bit of a reboot. And I arrive back in the UK to find something similar has happened in the world of politics. Our ruling party decided to switch the machine off and on again, downloaded a software update, and has emerged with a new Prime Minister and front bench.The underlying operating system may be unchanged, but the font and wallpaper look strikingly different. It’s out with the restrained, monochrome style of the old version, and in with something more bouncy, rather more informal and substantially more Northern.\n\nThe vibes have shifted. Yes, today we’re going to talk about “vibes”: Britain’s political word du jour.Vibes, or what an economist would call “sentiment”, are as important in politics as they are in life. Get the sentiment right and you can push through quite radical reforms with barely a murmur (so long as the numbers add up); get it wrong, and a minor policy tweak can get you in political hot water. If sentiment is positive people and businesses spend money, and capital markets buy sovereign debt at reasonable prices. A virtuous circle with more growth bringing better public finances, lower gilt yields and more opportunities to give the voters nice things.\n\n\n\n\n\n\nFree Thinking - City AM Opinion Newsletter\nGet weekly sparky insight and expert commentary on markets, entrepreneurship and innovation from City AM’s Opinion Editor, delivered every Saturday.\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nTax policy is a notably vibey and emotive part of government, both in how the changes make people feel as well as the behaviours it can drive. After all, it’s the part where you have to take people’s money off them. Never more so than on Budget day, which is the Chancellor of the exchequer’s annual chance to make headlines (good or bad).\n\nComing on the heels of two unusually lugubrious fiscal events that were all about “hard choices”, I expect John Healey’s first Budget to return to a more upbeat demeanour from the despatch box, yet still realistic, with the more cheerless announcements relegated to the bundles of detail that appear on the HMRC website after the speech.What would you do if you were Chancellor?If you were a new Chancellor wanting to shore up the finances and fix the tax system, how might you go about it? In tax policy you’re either spending financial capital for political benefit, or spending political capital for financial benefit.We may think it is easy to try to predict how a major tax announcement may impact sentiment based on whether it’s a give or a take. However, our policy team looked at recent tax measures and the noise they generated, leading to some fascinating results. Looking at polling from Yougov and Hansard parliamentary records, there’s no clear correlation between tax cuts and positive reaction, or tax rises and negativity. Certainly, some tax raising measures have generated noise disproportionate to their fiscal impact, with the reform of Agricultural Property Relief for inheritance tax (IHT) a standout example. Avoid this sort of thing and you keep your political capital intact for other more important changes.\n\nSome measures have been unpopular and financially significant, like the rise in Employers’ National Insurance Contributions (NIC). Some go under the radar, at least to start with. The freezing of income tax thresholds made few immediate ripples but is now, according to our new PM, a significant voter gripe on the doorsteps of Makerfield.","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":false,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"isLaohu8Offline":false,"tenantId":"TBGLOBAL","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.47.1","shortVersion":"4.47.1","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2659384051","isCrawlerRequest":true}