The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
1942 ET - Japanese stocks may rise thanks to eased fears about the Fed's rate increases and gains in U.S. technology stocks overnight. Nikkei futures are up 1.2% at 68500 on the SGX. The dollar is at 159.34 yen, compared with Y159.40 as of Wednesday's Tokyo stock market close. Investors are focusing on any developments in the Iran conflict and crude oil prices. The Nikkei Stock Average rose 0.8% to 67524.06 on Wednesday. (kosaku.narioka@wsj.com)
1607 ET - National Bank of Canada's economists stick to their forecast for Bank of Canada rate hikes starting in 1Q of 2027, despite a strong pickup in job growth in the past 3 months. The firm says job growth of roughly 180,000 in the May-to-July period is consistent with other economic indicators signaling a rebound in growth. Still, "we think the BOC will need more time to become convinced that the improvement has staying power," the economists say. They note the minutes covering the July 15 decision to hold steady suggested some officials worried the pickup in momentum might not have staying power. NBC adds the lags in data publication in Canada--with 3Q GDP out in late November--also argue against a rate hike this year. (Paul.Vieira@wsj.com, @paulvieira)
1552 ET - Treasury yields fall slightly as July inflation meets forecast, reducing odds of a Fed increase in September. Core annual CPI edges closer to the Fed's 2% target, printing at 2.5%. Analysts diverge on the effects of monetary policy, with some warning an August spike in fuel prices could revive hawkish expectations. WSJ consensus for PPI, due tomorrow, points to an acceleration of producer-price increases. Jobless claims are forecast to rise to 204,000 from 199,000. Demand in a 10-year auction is steady, with high yield clearing at 4.683%. The benchmark settles down by just 0.001 percentage point, at 4.682%. The two-year slips 0.019 p.p., to 4.198%. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)
1541 ET - In today's WASDE report, the USDA says that it lowered its outlook for beef production in 2026 due to "a slower rate of steer and heifer slaughter through the end of the year." For pork the outlook is cut on a slower rate of slaughter and lighter-weight animals. The USDA made a note in today's report that its outlook for beef is assuming that the reopening of the U.S.-Mexico border to feeder cattle has occurred in the Douglas, Ariz. port, but not yet for other ports. "Subsequent forecasts will reflect officially announced changes in policy when they occur," the USDA says. Live cattle futures finished down 1.1% to $2.23875 a pound, while hogs settled up 0.3% to 83.55 cents a pound. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1515 ET - U.S. natural gas futures rise ahead of weekly inventory data, supported by hotter weather forecasts for much of the next two weeks. "The warmer turn in the forecast has helped prices recover, but the upside remains measured because production continues to sit near record territory and leaves little room for demand to weaken," Gelber & Associates says in a note. The EIA is expected to report a 30 Bcf storage build for last week, according to a WSJ survey of analysts. That would trim the inventory surplus over the five-year average to 192 Bcf from 195 Bcf, while leaving stocks 31 Bcf below their year-earlier level. Nymex natural gas settles up 1.3% at $2.804/mmBtu.(anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
1456 ET - Oil futures end little changed in cautious trading with the market still focused on the Strait of Hormuz. President Trump posted on Truth Social that the U.S. is in complete control of the strait, although few ships are moving through the waterway given the risk of Iranian attacks. "I think the U.S. has significantly underestimated Iran's resolve," says Aarathi Krishnan, chief executive of geopolitical risk firm Raksha Intelligence Futures. Even if a deal is struck to reopen the strait, it doesn't mean that everything returns to normal, as the war risk premium needs to return to manageable levels, she says. "For insurers to bring down premiums they don't wait for the deal to be announced, they look for patterns over two to three months. They observe it and then they bring down risk premiums, which then makes it affordable for ships to start moving again." WTI and Brent settle up 0.1% at $83.27 and $88.98 a barrel, respectively. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
1445 ET - The USDA's weekly export sales report may show a big jump in U.S. soybean export sales. Analysts surveyed by The Wall Street Journal are forecasting exports for the week ended Aug. 6 to land anywhere from 700,000 metric tons to 2.6 million tons. If they hit the higher end of forecasts, then it'll be nearly 1 million more tons in soybean sales than reported last week. Sales to China are the main driver for the higher estimates, with flash sales being routinely announced in recent weeks. Corn and wheat sales are also forecast to have higher sales, analysts say. CBOT grain futures are higher following the WASDE report from earlier in the day, with corn up 4.5%, soybeans up 1.2%, and wheat up 3.6%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1442 ET - Front-month gold and silver futures settle higher after July's year-over-year CPI rise of 3.4% is seen as in-line. The softened inflation outlook gave precious metals support--making it four straight sessions that gold futures close higher, while silver is now up 8 out of the past 11 trading sessions, according to FactSet. Front month gold finishes up 0.6% to $4408.90 a troy ounce. Silver closes up 1.2% to $65.555 a troy ounce. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1435 ET - Consumer spending in Canada appears to have accelerated in 2Q, based on anonymized data from Royal Bank of Canada's debit- and credit-card holders. The downside, RBC economists say, is that households likely dipped into savings or accumulated more debt to finance purchases, due to elevated costs for gasoline. RBC's cardholder data indicate that core retail sales, excluding gas-station spending, rose 2.4% annualized in 2Q from 1Q. Cardholder spending on discretionary goods rose 3.7%, the bank says, following a weak 18-month period. "Underlying strength in spending suggests consumers broadly contributed to GDP growth in 2Q," RBC says. Preliminary data indicate a strong rebound in Canada growth in 2Q, after two straight quarters of slightly negative growth. (Paul.Vieira@wsj.com; @paulvieira)
1416 ET - Bitcoin is down 0.5% to $63,403, with prices seen rangebound without anything to juice buyer interest or seller activity. "Sellers are tiring and buyers are absent," says analysts with Glassnode in a note. The firm says the median realized price for bitcoin is sitting at $63k, while short-term holder cost basis is at $68.7k--with bitcoin rangebound between those levels. The July CPI report did little to move bitcoin, says Glassnode. "A weak response to good news is itself a warning," says the firm. Ethereum is up 0.4% to $1,888, XRP falls 0.7% to $1.01, and solana is essentially flat at $75.98. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1410 ET - Quantinuum's deal with Oracle is a vote of confidence for the quantum computing company's potential path toward commercialization, and contributed to a projection of revenue upside in 2027, Morgan Stanley analysts write in a note. Support from the U.S. government may serve as an additional tailwind, they write. But the central story is Quantinuum's path toward launching its next-generation quantum computers in 2027 and 2029, they write. "The quarter was encouraging, but it does not materially change the long term investment debate," the analysts write. Shares surge 24%. (elias.schisgall@wsj.com)
1347 ET - Treasury yields partially recover from morning declines triggered by lukewarm July inflation, while the dollar strengthens. A Treasury auction of 10-year notes shows signs of steady demand. Middle East tensions remain high, but oil prices ease amid an unexpected build in U.S. crude stockpiles. Annual July CPI inflation meets forecast at 3.4%, driving odds of a September Fed hike down to 38% from 48% yesterday, according to CME. The WSJ Dollar Index rises 0.1%, reversing its morning losses. The 10-year yield rises to 4.668% from an intraday low of 4.652%.
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