The latest Market Talks covering Commodities. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
0306 GMT - Palm oil falls in Asian trading, tracking softer soybean oil prices overnight on the Chicago Board of Trade. Technical analysis suggests CPO futures prices might consolidate in the near term after the recent rally, as buying momentum has weakened, RHB says in a note. However, the broader outlook remains positive, with prices expected to find support before attempting another move higher toward the 4,900 ringgit a ton resistance level, it adds. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for October delivery is 6 ringgit lower at 4,691 ringgit a ton. (yingxian.wong@wsj.com)
0302 GMT - Iron ore prices are flat in early Asia trade. End-user consumption is recovering from low levels, but weak steelmaker profitability is limiting the scope for a meaningful improvement in ore demand, Baocheng Futures analysts write in a note. On the supply side, port arrivals fell temporarily due to typhoon-related disruptions, but miners' shipments remain elevated, suggesting arrivals are likely to recover, the analysts say. Overseas supply remains ample, although domestic mine output is weakening, they add. The most actively traded January iron ore contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange is flat at 705.50 yuan a ton. (jiahui.huang@wsj.com; @ivy_jiahuihuang)
0228 GMT - Copper falls in Asian trading amid signs of cooling Chinese demand. The Yangshan premium, or the premium paid on top of the benchmark LME copper price for refined copper to be imported into China, slipped to $96 a ton, after reaching $115 a ton last month amid strong demand, ANZ Research analysts say in commentary. This suggests higher prices have cooled demand and pushed Chinese buyers to the sidelines, ANZ adds. The three-month LME copper contract is 0.3% lower at $14,090.00 a ton. (tracy.qu@wsj.com)
0029 GMT - Gold rises in early Asian trade. Expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike were pared back following the U.S. inflation data, as July consumer prices rose only marginally from June, say ANZ Research analysts in a note. The data suggests that the Fed is likely to remain on hold at its next meeting, leaving the market pricing only a 40% chance of a rate hike, the analysts say. "This continues the steady stream of data that have tempered expectations of monetary tightening and should provide further support for gold in the coming months," they add. A higher interest rate environment usually weighs on non-interest yielding assets such as the yellow metal. Spot gold is up 0.5% at $4,433.11 an ounce. (megan.cheah@wsj.com)
1941 GMT - In today's WASDE report, the USDA says that it lowered its outlook for beef production in 2026 due to "a slower rate of steer and heifer slaughter through the end of the year." For pork the outlook is cut on a slower rate of slaughter and lighter-weight animals. The USDA made a note in today's report that its outlook for beef is assuming that the reopening of the U.S.-Mexico border to feeder cattle has occurred in the Douglas, Ariz. port, but not yet for other ports. "Subsequent forecasts will reflect officially announced changes in policy when they occur," the USDA says. Live cattle futures finished down 1.1% to $2.23875 a pound, while hogs settled up 0.3% to 83.55 cents a pound. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1915 GMT - U.S. natural gas futures rise ahead of weekly inventory data, supported by hotter weather forecasts for much of the next two weeks. "The warmer turn in the forecast has helped prices recover, but the upside remains measured because production continues to sit near record territory and leaves little room for demand to weaken," Gelber & Associates says in a note. The EIA is expected to report a 30 Bcf storage build for last week, according to a WSJ survey of analysts. That would trim the inventory surplus over the five-year average to 192 Bcf from 195 Bcf, while leaving stocks 31 Bcf below their year-earlier level. Nymex natural gas settles up 1.3% at $2.804/mmBtu.(anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
1856 GMT - Oil futures end little changed in cautious trading with the market still focused on the Strait of Hormuz. President Trump posted on Truth Social that the U.S. is in complete control of the strait, although few ships are moving through the waterway given the risk of Iranian attacks. "I think the U.S. has significantly underestimated Iran's resolve," says Aarathi Krishnan, chief executive of geopolitical risk firm Raksha Intelligence Futures. Even if a deal is struck to reopen the strait, it doesn't mean that everything returns to normal, as the war risk premium needs to return to manageable levels, she says. "For insurers to bring down premiums they don't wait for the deal to be announced, they look for patterns over two to three months. They observe it and then they bring down risk premiums, which then makes it affordable for ships to start moving again." WTI and Brent settle up 0.1% at $83.27 and $88.98 a barrel, respectively. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
1845 GMT - The USDA's weekly export sales report may show a big jump in U.S. soybean export sales. Analysts surveyed by The Wall Street Journal are forecasting exports for the week ended Aug. 6 to land anywhere from 700,000 metric tons to 2.6 million tons. If they hit the higher end of forecasts, then it'll be nearly 1 million more tons in soybean sales than reported last week. Sales to China are the main driver for the higher estimates, with flash sales being routinely announced in recent weeks. Corn and wheat sales are also forecast to have higher sales, analysts say. CBOT grain futures are higher following the WASDE report from earlier in the day, with corn up 4.5%, soybeans up 1.2%, and wheat up 3.6%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1842 GMT - Front-month gold and silver futures settle higher after July's year-over-year CPI rise of 3.4% is seen as in-line. The softened inflation outlook gave precious metals support--making it four straight sessions that gold futures close higher, while silver is now up 8 out of the past 11 trading sessions, according to FactSet. Front month gold finishes up 0.6% to $4408.90 a troy ounce. Silver closes up 1.2% to $65.555 a troy ounce. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1747 GMT - Treasury yields partially recover from morning declines triggered by lukewarm July inflation, while the dollar strengthens. A Treasury auction of 10-year notes shows signs of steady demand. Middle East tensions remain high, but oil prices ease amid an unexpected build in U.S. crude stockpiles. Annual July CPI inflation meets forecast at 3.4%, driving odds of a September Fed hike down to 38% from 48% yesterday, according to CME. The WSJ Dollar Index rises 0.1%, reversing its morning losses. The 10-year yield rises to 4.668% from an intraday low of 4.652%. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)
1653 GMT - August's WASDE report did not make any adjustment to soybean export sales forecasts, keeping them the same as July at 1.66 billion bushels. But the number may not be the complete picture. That's because while accounting for higher sales out of Argentina to offset lower sales by Ukraine, what it doesn't appear to account for are promises made by China to purchase 25 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans this year. "[These] are not fully accounted for in USDA's balance sheet yet," says Arlan Suderman of StoneX in a note. CBOT soybeans are up 0.7% after the WASDE's release, while corn rises 3% and wheat is up 3.2%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1640 GMT - The USDA's surprise cut to U.S. corn yields--reducing the national average to 180.7 bushels an acre from 183 bpa in July--gave traders fuel to push corn prices higher. Analysts say that both the yield cut and a reduction to expected ending stocks for this year makes the report positive for corn price-wise. For soybeans and wheat, the price response was far quieter. "The corn report is supportive while everything else is relatively neutral on the surface," says Doug Bergman of RCM Alternatives in a note following the WASDE's release. Corn futures jumped to up 3% on the day after the report's publication, but slowly tapered gains to 2.5%. Soybeans are up 0.4%, and wheat climbs 2.9%.
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