The latest Market Talks covering Commodities. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
0907 ET - U.S. natural gas futures are lower ahead of the EIA's weekly inventory data due at 10:30 a.m. ET, which are expected to show a smaller-than-average injection into storage. "After last week's bearish EIA storage surprise, however, last week's hot weather and a potential 'make-up' create chances for a bullish figure relative to a 13 Bcf-19 Bcf consensus," Eli Rubin of EBW Analytics says in a note. "While South Central heat is supportive of natural gas prices, the sharp CDD [cooling degree day] retreat into the end of summer nationally may yield near-term softening." Nymex natural gas is down 1.8% at $2.764/mmBtu.(anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
0853 ET - Oil futures extend their rally after President Trump said the U.S. will impose unprecedented economic measures on Iran, with economic consequences for any country that allows any type of lifeline to Iran. Financial support for Iran basically means buying their oil, and that would involve China, Scott Shelton of TP ICAP says in a note. "I worry a bit about unintended consequences, however, as this could mean the Chinese buy even less total oil from the market, cut runs even more, and export even less." Most-active WTI is up 3.6% at $87.43 a barrel and Brent rises 3.1% to $94.47. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
0651 ET - Morgan Stanley sees a path for gold above $5,000 a troy ounce, potentially in 2027 or sooner, after the metal climbed past $4,450. The bank says improving macro conditions are reviving ETF demand, as expectations for Fed hikes fade and the U.S. dollar weakens. Strong central bank buying and firmer physical demand are adding further support. Gold's resilience despite elevated long-term yields also points to growing investor concern over fiscal risks, including high government debt and potential currency debasement. MS expects the Fed to remain on hold through 2026, but warns that upcoming U.S. inflation data and Fed communication could fuel volatility. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
0607 ET - Palm oil closed higher, tracking stronger soybean oil prices on the Chicago Board of Trade, said David Ng, a trader at Kuala Lumpur-based Iceberg X. Prices were also supported by persistent weather concerns, which could lead to lower crude palm oil output, Ng added. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for November delivery closed 66 ringgit higher at 4,959 ringgit a ton.(amanda.lee@wsj.com)
0402 ET - Gold prices holds above $4,500 after Wednesday's rally and the release of the Federal Reserve's minutes. "The minutes of the Fed's July meeting confirmed that the rate-setting committee had become more hawkish since the June meeting but, with the inflation, labour market and activity data since then all on the soft side, there is little to suggest that interest rate hikes are imminent," says Ariane Curtis from Capital Economics. In early European trading, New York futures rise 0.1% to $4,547.90 a troy ounce. Prices climbed in the previous session on a weaker U.S. dollar and lower U.S. government bond yields after the Treasury said it would at least double the amount of bonds it buys back. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
2329 ET - Crude palm oil prices are expected to remain firm into 1Q 2027 before gradually easing as El Nino risks dissipate, BMI says in a note. Near-term price support is expected from robust Indian restocking ahead of the festive season, Black Sea edible oil supply disruptions and growing El Nino risks to production, it says. BMI raises its 2026 Malaysia CPO futures price estimates to 4,453 ringgit a ton from 4,300 ringgit a ton. Prices are expected to average 4,543 ringgit a ton in 2027, underpinned by structural biodiesel demand and limited scope for supply growth, it adds. (yingxian.wong@wsj.com)
2311 ET - Iron ore declines in Asian trading. Prices are under pressure as supply is likely to remain ample in 2H, Nanhua Futures analysts say in a research note. International shipping rates continue to fall, they add. That said, iron ore may face "an inflection point" for end-user demand recovery, they say. The most-traded iron-ore contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange is down 2.0% at 701.5 yuan a ton. (tracy.qu@wsj.com)
2242 ET - Palm oil rises in early Asian trade, driven by stronger soybean oil prices on the Chicago Board of Trade overnight, PhillipCapital says in a note. Robust demand for U.S. soybeans from China is also supporting prices, as the two oils often move in tandem due to their use in similar products, it says. PhillipCapital expects prices to face resistance at 5,000 ringgit a ton and find support at 4,649 ringgit a ton. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for November delivery is up 6 ringgit at 4,899 ringgit a ton. (yingxian.wong@wsj.com)
2158 ET - Base metals are mixed in the Asian session. The bond buyback in the U.S. likely weighed on the dollar and boosted investor appetite for commodities, say ANZ Research analysts. This is despite another strong build in metal inventories, they add. Still, Sucden Financial reckons the overall base metal complex remains vulnerable to the risk of higher oil prices and U.S. yields weighing on risk appetite. The three-month copper futures contract on the London Metal Exchange drops 0.1% to $14,032.50 a metric ton. Aluminum declines 0.5%, nickel drops 0.4%, zinc is flat and lead rises 0.05%. (megan.cheah@wsj.com)
2138 ET - Petronas Chemicals' 2H earnings will likely be supported by higher plant operating rates, although normalizing petrochemical prices and still-weak downstream demand may limit margin expansion, TA Securities analyst Luqman Anwar says in a note. Plant utilization is expected to recover to 80%-85% in 3Q and about 93% in 4Q following major turnarounds in 2Q, he notes. Fertilizer and methanol will likely remain the key earnings anchor, supported by resilient urea demand, food-security needs and tighter global supply, he reckons. However, a repeat of the sharp 2Q price surge is unlikely, while olefins and derivatives prices could face further pressure from weak demand and structural oversupply, he adds. TA Securities maintains a sell rating on Petronas Chemicals, keeps target price at 4.32 ringgit. Shares are 1.9% lower at 4.60 ringgit. (yingxian.wong@wsj.com)
2126 ET - Gold declines in Asian trade. Minutes of the Federal Reserve's July meeting released Wednesday seemed to reveal broader support for interest rate increases, as more Fed officials favored raising rates last month than the three who formally dissented. Other officials also signaled they would back an increase if inflation doesn't improve. A higher-interest rate environment typically weighs on nonyielding assets such as gold. Still, while the minutes leaned hawkish, ING's James Knightley expects the Fed to remain on hold well into 2027. Fed officials who voted for no rate hikes would need stronger U.S. jobs numbers and more elevated inflation to be convinced, but the economist doesn't see such data materializing. Spot gold falls 0.6% to $4,494.52 a troy ounce. (megan.cheah@wsj.com)
2108 ET - Citi expects downside risk to FY27 earnings estimates for gold miner Northern Star. That is primarily due to weaker-than-anticipated forecast production and higher-than-expected costs. The company's Yandal and Pogo mines are the main sources of cost pressures, with all-in sustaining cost forecasts higher than Citi's expectations by 18% and 16%, respectively, the bank says. "Investor focus now shifts to KCGM ramp-up execution, whether Yandal's higher-cost base persists beyond FY27 and any changes in strategic direction under the incoming CEO and refreshed board," Citi says. It has a neutral rating and A$24.30 target on Northern Star. Shares are up 8.2% at A$24.38.
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