Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh speaks during a news conference after the Fed's meeting on July 29. Fed-watchers are eager to see the minutes of that meeting, which will be released Wednesday, and for the Fed's upcoming Jackson Hole meeting.
U.S. stock-index futures were little changed on Sunday after a quiet week on Wall Street, as investors await hints from the Fed concerning the outlook for interest rates.
Dow Jones Industrial Average futures (YM00) were flat, S&P 500 futures (ES00) were fractionally higher and Nasdaq-100 futures (NQ00) rose about 0.2% late Sunday. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) was trading below $63,000, down about 3% over the past week.
West Texas Intermediate crude (CL.1) gave up early gains and was down 0.4%, around $82.12 a barrel, after settling at $82.40 on Friday, up around 7% for the week. Brent crude (BRN00), the global benchmark, were flat, after settling Friday at $88.52 a barrel.
An oil tanker was reportedly attacked while transiting the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday, as talks between the U.S. and Iran to end hostilities have stalled. Despite the stalemate, oil prices are far below their highs from earlier this year. Experts say that's due in part to reduced global demand and the release of strategic stockpiles. Oxford Economics analysts have said they believe the current pattern of starts and stops in the strait to continue for the foreseeable future, keeping the price of Brent in the mid-$80s through the end of the year.
Stocks fell Friday, but Wall Street still ended a slow week mostly positive. The S&P 500 SPX rose 0.4% over the week, including a new record high, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite COMP gained 0.1%. The Dow DJIA slipped 0.6% for the week. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note BX:TMUBMUSD10Y rose 3.8 basis points (0.038 percentage points) last week to 4.695%.
The coming week is expected to be relatively quiet, with no major economic reports scheduled. But investors will be keeping an eye on the minutes of last month's Federal Open Market Committee meeting, to be released Wednesday, for details on how Fed members view inflation and the interest-rate environment.
Inflation has been stubbornly higher than the Fed's 2% target for years, though last week's consumer price index for July rose only slightly. But there are serious fears that the massively expensive artificial-intelligence buildout is driving up costs in everything from materials to consumer electronics.
The next big date for Fed-watchers is Aug. 27, the start of the Fed's annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyo. With Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh preferring to provide less forward guidance than his predecessor, Jerome Powell, investors may be parsing the meager details more than usual.
"Warsh has effectively told markets to read the macro data for themselves, which means every meaningful release between now and Jackson Hole becomes another vote on whether the tightening cycle has merely been pushed farther down the calendar or is genuinely beginning to run out of road," Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management, wrote in a weekend note.
Expectations for a rate hike at the Fed's September meeting were at about 33% on Sunday, according to CME's FedWatch tool.
This week will also see quarterly earnings reports from some major retailers, including Home Depot $(HD)$, Lowe's $(LOW)$, Target (TGT) and Walmart $(WMT)$, which should provide insight into how consumers are faring amid persistent inflation.
-Mike Murphy
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