What exactly is SpaceX? It isn't as easy to answer as investors might think. It's part space pioneer, part aspiring AI giant, part telecom, part high-tech manufacturer, and part Elon Musk.
DataTrek's Jessica Rabe answered the question by looking at how SpaceX stock has traded, relative to other companies. What she found was surprising.
For starters, SpaceX stock shows almost no correlation with the so-called Magnificent Seven megacaps, despite being a trillion-dollar company with artificial-intelligence models and data centers.
Correlations are relatively easy to understand. A correlation of one means that there is a perfect, positive linear relationship between two (or more) variables. Stocks with strong positive correlations go up and down together by similar amounts. Negative correlations exist, too. If one stock goes up, then the other one goes down. A correlation of zero means there is no relationship between two variables (or stocks).
SpaceX was supposed to upend the Mag Seven, creating something else, like the Great Eight. That might happen someday, but for now, the correlation between SpaceX stock and the Mag Seven is low at 0.28. (Apple's correlation with the S&P 500 is about 0.7.) SpaceX has even exhibited negative correlations with Amazon.com and Meta Platforms.
Shares of Musk's rocket company have shown a much stronger correlation with the broader U.S. equity market, which means that SpaceX stock is simply a proxy for risk. When investors are worried about the market, they sell SpaceX. When they feel better, they buy SpaceX.
Of course, the Nasdaq Composite was weak in July as AI-related stocks sold off. SpaceX stock floundered as investors waited for more shares held by insiders and early investors to become available to trade.
SpaceX stock is currently most strongly correlated with other space stocks such as Rocket Lab and AST SpaceMobile, Rabe finds. That makes some sense. SpaceX does, after all, spend a lot of time in space.
"SpaceX doesn't yet trade like a clean proxy for any single investment theme, not even a Musk Play," wrote Rabe. "Six weeks [into trading] and one earnings report into public life, the market still hasn't decided what SpaceX is."
Eventually, after some time and more earnings reports, SpaceX will likely trade in line with megacap tech stocks. Still, like early trading shows, SpaceX is a little unique, with its mix of space launch, wireless communications, and AI businesses that cut across several industries from aerospace & defense to information technology.
Shares were down 1.5% in premarket trading at $137.60 on Thursday, while S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were down 0.1% and 0.2%, respectively.
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