The latest Market Talks covering Commodities. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
0854 ET - Oil futures are moderately higher as President Trump tells Fox News he's in no hurry to resolve the conflict with Iran. Traders also await additional U.S. economic measures against Iran. "It appears to me that the U.S. is looking to starve the Iranians as their answer to this crisis more and more," Scott Shelton of TP ICAP says in a note. That policy could make it even harder for China to keep refinery run rates at their current level and make the diesel crisis worse, he adds. WTI is up 0.7% at $83.01 a barrel and Brent is up 0.9% at $89.34. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
0749 ET - Escalating hostilities between Russia and Ukraine threaten to raise global food prices further, Oxford Economics' Tatiana Orlova says in a note. Global food prices are expected to increase by 11.8% this year and 4.8% in 2027, she says. "But given that Russia is the largest grain exporter globally and Ukraine is the fifth largest, the recent escalation of fighting in the Azov and Black Sea basin could result in a more severe global food price shock." Alternative routes for exports developed following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 will help mitigate the damage, but they could be targeted by strikes, Orlova says. Moreover, shipping via the River Danube is hindered by the current drought and low water levels, she adds. (edward.frankl@wsj.com)
0620 ET - Nestle's key growth indicators wouldn't take a hit if its Russian business was removed from the group, analysts at Barclays say in a note. Barclays analysts point to a report in Russian newspaper Kommersant about the possibility of Nestle's Russian entities being transferred to state management--a reminder that companies operating in Russia continue to face risks, the analysts write. Key metrics would not be impacted as the operation has been excluded from real internal growth and organic growth measurements since 2022, the analysts add. Nestle hasn't been contacted by Russian federal authorities on this matter, a spokesperson said. Nestle shares are down 2.1% at 79.32 Swiss francs. (aimee.look@wsj.com)
0659 ET - Palm oil ended higher, as the July Malaysian Palm Oil Board report showed growth in both production and demand in origin countries, noted Nanhua Futures. Prices are likely to find some support as valuation drops, alongside its previous pullback and long-term supply contraction, they say. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for November delivery rose 12 ringgit to 4,819 ringgit a ton, according to LSEG. (tracy.qu@wsj.com)
0441 ET - Copper continues to rally as supply concerns mount. In the morning trade, 3-month LME prices are 0.7% higher at $14,264 a metric ton. The rise comes as LME inventories fell for a 42nd consecutive session to 204,975 tons, which is their lowest level since February, ING analysts write. Copper continues to flow to the U.S. and China, where the industrial metal trades at a premium. At the same time, Chile expects copper production to fall 2.6% this year, which is heightening supply concerns, they say. (adam.whittaker@wsj.com)
0421 ET - Gold rises as investors pare back bets of an imminent interest-rate hike. In morning European trade, New York gold futures are 0.5% higher at $4,458.20 a troy ounce. The precious metal continues a two-week advance after weaker U.S. retails sales and softer consumer sentiment weighed on the dollar and reduced expectations of a rate hike, MUFG's Soojin Kim writes. Higher interest rates make non-yielding assets like gold less attractive. "Wednesday's Fed minutes, U.S. economic data and developments around Hormuz will be key drivers of gold, particularly through their impact on rate expectations," she adds.(adam.whittaker@wsj.com)
0302 ET - Comex gold futures' bullish setup is still intact, based on the daily chart, RHB Retail Research's Aiman Kamil Bin Ahmad Shauqi says in a report. The commodity's fresh bullish candlestick pattern posted on Friday suggests selling pressure has tapered, the analyst notes. Since bulls have returned to the "driver's seat," the precious metal could resume its bullish trajectory toward initial resistance at $4,650 per ounce, the analyst says. Also, both 20- and 50-day simple moving averages continue to trend upward, providing support for the bullish technical setup, the analyst adds. Spot gold is 0.6% higher at $4,402.64 per ounce. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)
0114 ET - Indonesia's B50 biofuel program is entering a more challenging phase as fading near-term crude oil tailwinds reduce the economic attractiveness of higher biodiesel blends, BMI says in a note. Potentially strengthening El Nino conditions are expected to keep palm oil prices supported by tighter supply expectations, raising feedstock costs and subsidy requirements, it says. As domestic biodiesel consumption rises, less palm oil will be available for export, shrinking Indonesia's export levy base and limiting its ability to finance further program expansion, it reckons. Higher palm oil prices and constrained production could further pressure the program's economics, forcing policymakers to balance energy security, fiscal sustainability and export competitiveness, BMI adds. (yingxian.wong@wsj.com)
2253 ET - Iron ore futures decline in Asian trade. The broader demand backdrop for the ferrous metal remains weak, say ANZ Research analysts, citing factors such as softer domestic consumption in China and elevated inventories. "We believe only targeted policy support in China, focused on infrastructure and selective industrial measures, would support the market, with little prospect of reversing the structural decline in steel demand," they say. Iron ore is a key raw material for steel production. Oversupply pressures could also intensify as supply from Australia, Brazil and new sources rise, which could increase downward price pressure over time, says ANZ. The most-traded iron-ore futures contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange falls 0.6% to 707.0 yuan a metric ton. (megan.cheah@wsj.com)
2243 ET - Palm oil rises in Asian trade, tracking Friday's stronger soybean oil prices on the Chicago Board of Trade. Technical analysis suggests that the upward momentum in CPO futures remains intact, although some profit-taking could emerge following the recent price gains, AmInvestment Bank says in a note. Traders may favor a buy-on-dips strategy as long as prices hold above key short-term support levels. AmInvestment Bank expects palm oil prices to face resistance at 4,828 ringgit a ton and find support at 4,777 ringgit a ton. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for November delivery is higher by 2 ringgit at 4,809 ringgit a ton.(yingxian.wong@wsj.com)
2233 ET - Base metals rise in early Asian trade. Metals face supply disruptions, with demand remaining resilient but vulnerable at higher prices, ANZ Research team writes in a note. Aluminum will likely remain supported above $3,000 a ton as market remains undersupplied, ANZ says, noting that China's output cap will constrain supply growth despite attractive margins. Nickel prices have been supported by Indonesia's policy to tighten output, while Philippines' reliance on Chinese and Indonesian refiners are additional constraints, it adds. The three-month LME aluminum contract is 0.4% higher at $3,266.00 a ton, while nickel is up 0.5% at $16,900 a ton. (kimberley.kao@wsj.com)
2200 ET - BlueScope Steel is stepping up its capital-management plans and "has upped the ante on efficiency," says Macquarie. The steelmaker's EBIT outlook for 1H FY 2027 is 11% above market expectations, while value-added sales are also strong, it says. The bank reiterates an outperform rating and a A$35.95 target on the stock. The key driver of BlueScope's strong earnings guidance is North America, where a debottlenecking project at North Star is delivering early benefits, says Macquarie. A turnaround of the Buildings and Coated Products North America business is also gaining traction, it says. Shares are down 1.5% at A$33.19.
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