While traders have generally assumed the U.S.-Iran conflict will resolve itself without major escalation, it has frequently tested their nerves. President Donald Trump loves the stock market, but his threat on Monday to bomb ally Oman-apparently because of the Gulf nation's role in negotiations with Tehran-has set off a mini-panic. Oil prices are climbing again and the 30-year Treasury yield just closed at its highest level since 2007.
Previously such moves, especially in the bond market, have tended to trigger the so-called "Trump put"-the assumption that the president would step in to boost sentiment by signaling progress on peace talks. When the Iran conflict broke out it was generally thought the administration would aim to have its intervention wrapped up well ahead of the midterm elections in November, giving time for energy prices to fall.
Right now, there doesn't seem much sign that Trump will ride to the rescue. Although Vice President JD Vance said last week the administration's top priority was keeping gas prices low, he was contradicted Monday by the president-who said the "number one goal" would always be to stop Iran obtaining nuclear weapons. That suggests the chances of cutting a quick deal to reopen the vital Strait of Hormuz shipping route remain distant for now.
Perhaps Trump feels he doesn't need to be such an active cheerleader for the stock market. After all, the S&P 500 just closed at a record high last Thursday. But if bond yields keep creeping higher without some reassuring words from the president, investors will have to rethink the support they can expect from the Oval Office.
-Adam Clark
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The 30-Year Treasury Yield Hits Level Not Seen Since 2007
An intensifying Treasury selloff drove the yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury to its highest level in more than 19 years. All told, 30-year Treasuries have serious problems to contend with-inflationary pressure and supply being among them-which means yields could continue to rise through the summer.
The 30-year Treasury yield settled at 5.310% on Monday, its highest settlement since the 5.356% reached on June 12, 2007. The rising yield comes alongside a 2.6% gain in U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude oil. Generally, higher oil prices will cause shorter-duration yields to rise.
Recently, longer term Treasuries have been reactive to oil prices. WTI and the 30-year yield have a 10-day correlation coefficient of 0.85 as of Friday-a very close relationship, given that a correlation of one would mean they have been moving in lockstep. The correlation was near zero on July 23.
The 10-year yield is also moving in tandem with oil, with its correlation at 0.87 on Friday, up from similar lows in July. To Shriya Samarth, EMEA head of rates at StoneX, this indicates that "inflation in some way, shape, or form is here to stay because of oil."
The 30-year yield has now been above the 5% threshold for the past 30 trading days. Supply could be another bearish driver for bonds. Investors had to digest $125 billion in medium- and long-term Treasury debt last week. Term premiums are rising near the upper end of 2026 highs.
What's Next: At the same time, the national debt is expected to top $40 trillion by the end of August, more than double decade-ago levels. By summer 2029, Bank of America's Michael Hartnett estimates the national debt will hit $50 trillion-roughly $1.1 trillion would be added every four months.
-Karishma Vanjani and Martin Baccardax
Micron Technology Retakes Key Level. What Happens Next.
Micron Technology stock closed above $1,000 for the first time since early July, boosted by renewed momentum for the memory-chip trade. The sector potentially got a lift after the Trump administration rejected Chinese software.
Investors look to be piling back into the artificial-intelligence hardware trade, with memory being the hottest subsector. Micron stock has risen more than 700% in the past 12 months, although it remains short of its highs earlier in the summer of more than $1,200.
Confidence might be bolstered by Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick confirming the Trump administration is discouraging American companies from turning to China for memory-chip supplies. He told The Wall Street Journal "it's not great American companies using Chinese memory."
In particular, the administration has relayed that message to Apple, according to the interview, which was published later on Friday. The Journal earlier reported that Apple held early talks with China's ChangXin Memory Technologies, or CXMT, about supplying components for some devices sold in China.
CXMT has advanced rapidly in conventional dynamic random-access memory $(DRAM)$, taking 7% of the global market share by revenue in the second quarter, according to Counterpoint Research. But U.S. government rules mean American companies need a license to share information with it.
What's Next: Jefferies equity sales specialist William Beavington wrote that while people are urging Apple not to work with Chinese suppliers, Apple says it must evaluate all options amid tight memory availability. That highlights growing tension between supply chain realities and U.S. efforts to reshore chip making.
-Adam Clark
SpaceX Spends $60 Billion to Bolster AI Ambitions
SpaceX doesn't waste any time developing rockets, launching satellites, or making big moves to build its AI business. Elon Musk's rocket company just completed its $60 billion acquisition of Cursor.
The purchased company is essentially an AI software development tool. A user can tell Cursor to develop, say, a touch screen-based user interface. Then Cursor builds it. Users iterate with natural language commands.
Cursor also has AI agents that work on and correct software code on their own, among other product offerings. It competes with Microsoft's GitHub Copilot, Anthropic's Claude, and OpenAI's Codex, among others.
Deutsche Bank analyst Edison Yu laid out three benefits of the deal, which was announced in June, in a Monday report. It kick-starts SpaceX's ability to monetize its AI business, brings AI coding expertise, and represents AI vertical integration.
What's Next: The acquisition could give SpaceX an immediate sales boost. Yu now models 2027 revenue of $115 billion, up from $97 billion before the deal closes. He rates the stock Buy, with a $235 price target that implies it can rally 61%.
-Al Root and George Glover
More Tomahawk Missiles Are on the Way. These Stocks Benefit.
RTX, the former Raytheon, just snared a seven-year, $22.9 billion contract to make Tomahawk cruise missiles for the U.S. Navy. The goal is to boost Tomahawk production roughly tenfold from recent levels, to about 1,000 a year. RTX isn't the only defense stock that benefits.
The U.S. stockpile of missiles and the American industry's ability to produce more have been top concerns since the U.S. began shooting down relatively cheaper Iranian drones using weapons costing millions. RTX is making significant investments in its workforce, technology, supply chain, and facilities to increase production capacity.
The new contract not only helps RTX, it benefits the entire industry. L3Harris Technologies supplies RTX with rocket motors, while General Dynamics supplies warheads. Lockheed Martin and RTX make Patriot and other missiles and systems. Other companies including Boeing and Honeywell Aerospace supply parts and electronics.
The production of Patriot and anti-ballistic missile projectiles is set to roughly quadruple from roughly 700 a year. Air-to-air and precision strike missile production is set to rise dramatically, too.
This is all happening while reports circulate about rapidly diminishing American weapons stockpiles and as the Iran war drags on. President Donald Trump has pushed back against those claims, but the Pentagon has asked Congress for billions more dollars to replenish weapons.
What's Next: Investors worry that U.S. defense spending could slow if Democrats retake the House in the 2026 midterm elections. Still, defense spending is typically a bipartisan issue, and missile production is likely to increase no matter who controls Congress.
-Al Root and Janet H. Cho
Disney's New CEO Outlines Vision Under Pressure to Deliver
The pressure is on for new Walt Disney CEO Josh D'Amaro to deliver. He outlined his vision at the company's annual D23 convention, highlighting upcoming films, television shows, and theme park attractions. A box-office slowdown, cable cord-cutting, and concerns about consumer spending have weighed on the House of Mouse.
D'Amaro, who replaced Bob Iger in March, published a 3,000-word letter to shareholders in May detailing his plans, including investing in already successful intellectual property and "taking creative risks" to build new franchises. Disney shares have risen 8% over the past decade, compared with the S&P 500 index's 256% gain.
D23 introduced a new animated film called Clay and announced a third installment of the successful Zootopia franchise. It also offered a sneak peek of a live-action Tangled movie, a teaser trailer for The Bluey Movie, and an early glimpse of Frozen 3.
Whereas Disney's Inside Out 2 led the domestic box office in 2024, with total sales of $653 million, this year's live-action Moana sold only $124.5 million in the domestic box office this year, and last year's live-action Snow White made $87.2 million.
Disney shareholders are eager for a box office boost. According to Placer.ai, fewer people are going to the movies than before the Covid-19 pandemic closed theaters in 2020. U.S. movie theater visits through July are up 8.1% from 2025, but down 27% compared with 2019.
What's Next: While film performance is just one piece of the overall Disney puzzle, the company is hoping for a box-office rebound. The D23 announcements could be a sign that Disney, and its new leadership, are positioned to get there.
-Angela Palumbo and Janet H. Cho
-Newsletter edited by Liz Moyer, Patrick O'Donnell, Rupert Steiner
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