TradingKey - As of the U.S. market close on August 14 EST, SpaceX (SPCX) fell 0.91% to $140. After touching $150 last Wednesday, the stock pulled back for two consecutive trading days, indicating heavy selling pressure around the $150 mark.
Musk Expects AI Revenue to Exceed Other Businesses
From a fundamental perspective, recent market attention on SpaceX has focused on the rapid growth of its AI-related business revenue, while Musk has further raised expectations for this business's future revenue contribution.
SpaceX's latest financial report shows that its second-quarter total revenue reached approximately $7.8 billion, nearly doubling from $4.1 billion in the same period last year. Among this, Starlink revenue grew 66% year-over-year to about $4.29 billion, remaining the largest revenue source; AI business revenue reached roughly $2.6 billion, up about 250% year-over-year, significantly exceeding space business revenue, which includes commercial launches, government missions, and Starship.
In a recent all-hands meeting with SpaceX employees, Musk further stated that he expects the company's AI business revenue to surpass the combined revenue of all other businesses as early as September this year, and "significantly exceed" other businesses in the fourth quarter. This means that according to Musk's forecast, the revenue growth rate of the AI business over the next few quarters needs to be noticeably higher than that of businesses like Starlink, which currently still account for more than half of the company's revenue.
Musk also provided a longer-term forecast, stating that the AI business could contribute about 99% of SpaceX's revenue over the next four to five years. In addition, he expects the company's AI computing capacity to exceed 2 GW by the end of 2026 and approach 10 GW by the end of 2027; based on his calculations, a 10 GW computing capacity corresponds to a potential annual revenue scale of $300 billion to $500 billion.
For SPCX's stock price, if actual revenue in September and the fourth quarter validates Musk's prediction that AI revenue will surpass other businesses, the market may further raise SpaceX's future revenue and earnings expectations, thereby providing support for the SPCX share price.
SpaceX Starlink Continues Expansion: Falcon 9 Breaks Launch Record
In addition to AI, SpaceX's traditional aerospace business has also seen positive progress recently.
On August 15, SpaceX conducted two Falcon 9 missions on the East and West coasts of the United States, with an interval of just 38 minutes between the two orbital-class launches, breaking the company's previous record of 65 minutes. The Starlink constellation currently has nearly 11,000 satellites in orbit, and SpaceX's launch cadence remains significantly ahead of other commercial space companies.
SpaceX's official mission schedule shows that the company still plans to execute new Starlink launch missions on August 18 and 20, indicating that Falcon 9 continues to maintain a high mission cadence.
For Starlink, Falcon 9's launch capability is particularly crucial. SpaceX needs to continuously launch new satellites to expand network capacity, replace legacy satellites, and enter more regions. As of mid-August, the company has completed nearly 100 Falcon 9 launches in 2026, with the majority of these missions dedicated to Starlink satellite deployment. The company has also scheduled subsequent Starlink missions, indicating that the expansion of the satellite network remains ongoing.
Therefore, from a fundamental perspective, high-frequency Falcon 9 launches themselves are not direct drivers of SpaceX's profit growth; rather, their value lies more in supporting Starlink's ongoing network capacity expansion while ensuring execution capability for commercial and government launch contracts. If Starlink satellite deployments continue to rise and further drive user growth and revenue expansion, existing launch capabilities will be more directly reflected in the company's future financial metrics.
For SPCX's stock price, the market is currently evaluating the growth opportunities and capital expenditure pressures stemming from SpaceX's rapidly increasing AI investments, while Starlink already possesses substantial actual revenue scale. If Starlink can maintain strong growth over the coming quarters while Falcon 9 continues to execute commercial and government missions reliably, it will provide a relatively stable cushion for the company's overall revenue and ease market concerns that SpaceX's growth relies excessively on AI prospects.
SpaceX Stock Price Technical Analysis
SPCX daily price chart. Source: TradingView
Looking at the daily price chart for SPCX, the stock price has recently continued to rebound, briefly touching the key resistance level of $150. However, it failed to effectively break above this level as market selling pressure gradually mounted, causing the stock to pull back for two consecutive trading days and further confirming the heavy pressure at the $150 resistance level.
On the upside, the stock price first needs to break through and hold firmly above $150 for further upside room to open up. The next upside target will test the resistance level near $172. If it continues to break above this position, the stock is expected to test the $200 level, and potentially test its all-time high of $225.64.
On the downside, the primary support level to watch below is near $130. If this level fails to hold, the stock price may pull back further to test support at the 20-day moving average. If it falls below the 20-day moving average, it may continue downward to test the support level at $105.
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