The latest Market Talks covering Commodities. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
1052 ET - U.S. natural gas inventories saw their smallest increase so far in the current injection season, trimming the surplus over the five-year average, EIA data show. Gas in underground storage rose by 16 billion cubic feet last week to 3,169 Bcf, which was 185 Bcf above the five-year average and 28 Bcf below the year-earlier level. The injection was smaller than the five-year average build for the week of 29 Bcf, and reduced the surplus from 198 Bcf the week before. Natural gas futures are off 3.1% at $2.727/mmBtu as a small storage increase was widely expected. Analysts in a Wall Street Journal survey had predicted a build of 18 Bcf.(anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
1046 ET - A lack of progress in ending the U.S.-Iran war is giving crude oil prices a boost, rising 1.8% to $87.36 a barrel. This is giving CBOT corn futures support as well, with the tie being ethanol and renewable fuels. "Volatility likely remains elevated, but over time, higher prices are looking more likely," says Doug Bergman of RCM Alternatives in a note, also pointing out at the Russia-Ukraine war strangling shipments out of the Black Sea is lifting grain prices, wheat in particular. CBOT corn is up 1.3%, while soybeans are up 0.1% and wheat rises 0.9%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1031 ET - Live cattle futures are up 0.2%, inching higher as cattle attempts to fight out of its downtrend. The continuous contract has finished lower in six out of the past seven trading sessions, finding new year-to-date lows. One factor at play is cutout prices, which have been rising but not translating to higher live cattle futures prices. "These last two sessions make it clear that what is happening in the cutout isn't what's happening in the cash fed or cattle futures markets," says StoneX in a note. Lean hog futures are down 0.8%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
0946 ET - Thyssenkrupp's planned capital markets day for its steel operations in September is likely a prelude to an IPO, according to Bank of America. Factors related to tariffs, restructuring and a possible exit from the Huettenwerke Krupp Mannesmann steel plant could help significantly boost operating earnings and drive a reassessment of the German industrial company's steel business, BofA writes in a research note. Investors might be wary of how the steel business will develop but BofA says the company's agreement with German unions on restructuring is "a very positive starting point." Thyssenkrupp trades 3.1% lower at 12.56 euros. (sarah.sloat@wsj.com)
0907 ET - U.S. natural gas futures are lower ahead of the EIA's weekly inventory data due at 10:30 a.m. ET, which are expected to show a smaller-than-average injection into storage. "After last week's bearish EIA storage surprise, however, last week's hot weather and a potential 'make-up' create chances for a bullish figure relative to a 13 Bcf-19 Bcf consensus," Eli Rubin of EBW Analytics says in a note. "While South Central heat is supportive of natural gas prices, the sharp CDD [cooling degree day] retreat into the end of summer nationally may yield near-term softening." Nymex natural gas is down 1.8% at $2.764/mmBtu.(anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
0853 ET - Oil futures extend their rally after President Trump said the U.S. will impose unprecedented economic measures on Iran, with economic consequences for any country that allows any type of lifeline to Iran. Financial support for Iran basically means buying their oil, and that would involve China, Scott Shelton of TP ICAP says in a note. "I worry a bit about unintended consequences, however, as this could mean the Chinese buy even less total oil from the market, cut runs even more, and export even less." Most-active WTI is up 3.6% at $87.43 a barrel and Brent rises 3.1% to $94.47. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
0651 ET - Morgan Stanley sees a path for gold above $5,000 a troy ounce, potentially in 2027 or sooner, after the metal climbed past $4,450. The bank says improving macro conditions are reviving ETF demand, as expectations for Fed hikes fade and the U.S. dollar weakens. Strong central bank buying and firmer physical demand are adding further support. Gold's resilience despite elevated long-term yields also points to growing investor concern over fiscal risks, including high government debt and potential currency debasement. MS expects the Fed to remain on hold through 2026, but warns that upcoming U.S. inflation data and Fed communication could fuel volatility. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
0607 ET - Palm oil closed higher, tracking stronger soybean oil prices on the Chicago Board of Trade, said David Ng, a trader at Kuala Lumpur-based Iceberg X. Prices were also supported by persistent weather concerns, which could lead to lower crude palm oil output, Ng added. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for November delivery closed 66 ringgit higher at 4,959 ringgit a ton.(amanda.lee@wsj.com)
0402 ET - Gold prices holds above $4,500 after Wednesday's rally and the release of the Federal Reserve's minutes. "The minutes of the Fed's July meeting confirmed that the rate-setting committee had become more hawkish since the June meeting but, with the inflation, labour market and activity data since then all on the soft side, there is little to suggest that interest rate hikes are imminent," says Ariane Curtis from Capital Economics. In early European trading, New York futures rise 0.1% to $4,547.90 a troy ounce. Prices climbed in the previous session on a weaker U.S. dollar and lower U.S. government bond yields after the Treasury said it would at least double the amount of bonds it buys back. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
2329 ET - Crude palm oil prices are expected to remain firm into 1Q 2027 before gradually easing as El Nino risks dissipate, BMI says in a note. Near-term price support is expected from robust Indian restocking ahead of the festive season, Black Sea edible oil supply disruptions and growing El Nino risks to production, it says. BMI raises its 2026 Malaysia CPO futures price estimates to 4,453 ringgit a ton from 4,300 ringgit a ton. Prices are expected to average 4,543 ringgit a ton in 2027, underpinned by structural biodiesel demand and limited scope for supply growth, it adds. (yingxian.wong@wsj.com)
2311 ET - Iron ore declines in Asian trading. Prices are under pressure as supply is likely to remain ample in 2H, Nanhua Futures analysts say in a research note. International shipping rates continue to fall, they add. That said, iron ore may face "an inflection point" for end-user demand recovery, they say. The most-traded iron-ore contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange is down 2.0% at 701.5 yuan a ton. (tracy.qu@wsj.com)
2242 ET - Palm oil rises in early Asian trade, driven by stronger soybean oil prices on the Chicago Board of Trade overnight, PhillipCapital says in a note. Robust demand for U.S. soybeans from China is also supporting prices, as the two oils often move in tandem due to their use in similar products, it says. PhillipCapital expects prices to face resistance at 5,000 ringgit a ton and find support at 4,649 ringgit a ton. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for November delivery is up 6 ringgit at 4,899 ringgit a ton.
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