Global Energy Roundup: Market Talk

The latest Market Talks covering Energy markets. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

1018 ET - European natural-gas prices climb 4% to their highest level in more than three years as traders grow increasingly concerned about supply ahead of winter. Asian demand continues to strengthen, adding to the challenge of replenishing European storage as buyers in the region attract LNG cargoes away from Europe. Storage levels currently stand at just 62%, leaving the region increasingly dependent on a mild winter to curb heating demand. In afternoon trading, the benchmark Dutch TTF contract is up 4.2% at 68.61 euros a megawatt-hour. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

0958 ET - Another rise in the U.K. energy price cap would more than offset Prime Minister Andy Burnham's move to cut tax on electricity bills, Thomas Pugh at RSM UK says in a note. Ofgem, the country's energy regulator, is expected to increase the price cap in October. This is likely to have a limited impact on headline inflation. "Ofgem's price cap is based on typical use for dual-fuel households, but some households will only use electricity, where prices will probably fall," Pugh says. But risks of higher energy inflation remain going into 2027. European gas storage is at a 10-year low, which could lift wholesale prices, Pugh says. "That would push household bills much higher in January, keeping inflation sticky in 2027." (don.forbes@wsj.com)

0946 ET - The Japanese yen has ample room to weaken against the dollar unless the U.S. fundamental backdrop changes materially, Morgan Stanley analysts say in a note. Ongoing Middle East tensions and the resulting rise in energy prices should keep expectations for the Federal Reserve's final--or terminal--interest rate elevated while also worsening Japan's terms of trade, they say. "Our dollar-yen fair-value model--based on U.S. terminal-rate pricing, global risk sentiment, and Japan's terms of trade--still points to around 167.00." The dollar rises 0.1% to 159.10 yen, having reached a 40-year high of 163.98 last month, LSEG data show. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0931 ET - U.S. natural gas futures are higher in early trading with at least two weeks more of extremely hot weather, particularly across the southern U.S., expected to drive power-sector demand. "Overall, weather patterns are viewed as bullish the front 10 days, but then closer to seasonal for the 11-15 day period," NatGasWeather.com says in a note. "We expect a volatile week in the natural gas markets and partly due to approaching expiration of Sep'26 options and futures," the forecaster adds. Nymex natural gas is up 1.7% at $2.821/mmBtu.(anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

0919 ET - The second quarter was a strong stretch for Canadian companies, driven in large part by higher energy prices amid global political tensions and supply disruptions. Statistics Canada data show operating profit recorded by Canadian corporations hit about C$228.2 billion in 2Q, up 9.7% on the prior quarter and 15% above the same period last year. Non-financial corporations led the charge, driven by the oil and gas industry which notched a 68.3% jump in operating profit. Petroleum and coal manufacturers saw a 121% surge in profit to the highest since 1Q 2020, and pipeline transportation corporations saw a 30.6% increase. Profit growth across manufacturers was up 30.6% to C$28.2 billion, or a softer 3.7% excluding petroleum and coal. For financial industries, operating profit was up 5% to C$101.6 billion. (robb.stewart@wsj.com; @RobbMStewart)

0902 ET - Crude futures are lower following six straight session of gains with the market looking to Scott Bessent's afternoon press conference where the Treasury Secretary plans to give details of increased U.S. economic sanctions against Iran. The measures "could inflict significant economic pain on Iran, potentially moving the needle toward renewed and more serious talks with the U.S.," Peter Cardillo of Spartan Capital says in a note. WTI is down 1.7% at $85.58 a barrel and Brent is 1.3% lower at $93.14 a barrel. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)'"The dollar's reaction is likely to depend on the scope and severity of the sanctions," Commerzbank's Volkmar Baur says in a note.' "Dollar Rises Slightly as U.S.-Iran Conflict Continues -- Market Talk," at 0654 GMT, misspelled the analyst's name.

0700 ET - Institutional inflows into bitcoin will be required to extend the cryptocurrency's rally further, IG analyst Chris Beauchamp says in a note. "For the moment it looks like the outflows have been staunched, and the beginnings of an inflow revival are in play." This is key for a sustained bounce so the focus will be on upcoming flow data, he says. Bitcoin's recent gains come after the U.S. Treasury announced increased buybacks of long-term bonds. This prompted markets to sell the dollar and seek alternative assets like cryptocurrencies in so-called dollar debasement, he says. Bitcoin rises 0.5% to $77,804 after reaching a three-month high of $79,455 Friday, LSEG data show. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0651 ET - Cryptocurrencies could remain supported if U.S. Treasury yields continue to recover from a recent buyback announcement, Block Scholes analyst Thahbib Rahman says in a note. The Treasury last week announced increased buybacks of long-term bonds but this failed to have a lasting impact in lowering yields, he says. Should the impact of the Treasury's efforts to lower yields continue to fade, cryptocurrencies and gold could rise against a weaker dollar in debasement trades. These are where surging government debt causes investors to turn to other assets, he says. Bitcoin rises 0.2% to $77,571 after reaching a three-month high of $79,455 Friday. Ether gains 0.6% to $2,463 after hitting a six-month high of $2,545 Saturday. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0622 ET - Corn contracts rise to their highest levels since July 2023 amid concern around pressures in the Black Sea and lower-than-expected U.S. yields. "U.S. corn estimates pointed to lower corn yields, while continued attacks in the Black Sea disrupted exports," Rabobank analysts write. U.S. agricultural group Pro Farmer estimated Friday the 2026 U.S. corn crop will come in at 15.344 billion bushels amid inconsistent field performance, with yields at their lowest level since 2020. Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Russia refused a truce that would halt attacks against ships carrying grains through the Black Sea. Front-month corn contracts jump 2.65% to $5.22 a bushel, up around 26% from the contract's June lows. (josephmichael.stonor@wsj.com)

0609 ET - Bitcoin is increasingly trading as both a risk-sensitive asset and a hedge against fiscal and monetary policy uncertainty, Zaye Capital Markets analyst Naeem Aslam says in a note. President Trump's comments about tariffs, Iran and larger household tax refunds reinforce broader concerns about inflation, government borrowing and geopolitical risk, he says. Those forces can support bitcoin's longer-term "hard asset" narrative. However, continued gains in bitcoin require real spot buying rather than forced liquidations once crowded bets on the cryptocurrency falling are exhausted, he says. "That makes institutional flows, regulatory progress and Treasury-market conditions more important than simply tracking momentum." Bitcoin rises 1.5% to $77,406 after reaching a three-month high of $79,455 on Friday, LSEG data show. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0604 ET - U.S. Treasury yields decline, helped by lower oil prices and prospects that the Treasury might act again to tame high yields. The dollar rises on safe-haven demand ahead of Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent potentially unveiling sanctions against Iran later Monday. Global bonds are enjoying a small rebound but remain vulnerable, Pimco's Marc Seidner and Pramol Dhawan say. "Rising sovereign debt loads, a surge in AI-related corporate bond issuance, and lingering inflation anxiety tied to energy costs--and what that means for central bank policy--all play a role." The 10-year Treasury yield declines 2.8 basis points to 4.709%, according to Tradeweb. The 30-year yield falls 2.6 basis points at 5.249%. The DXY dollar index rises 0.2% to 99.00.