Netflix needs new content to bring in viewers as it competes with fellow streamers and short-form video platforms. YouTube reportedly isn't going to make that easy, which could be a problem for Netflix's margins and its stock.
According to a Bloomberg report last week, YouTube is offering millions of dollars to channels that agree to upload videos exclusively to the platform for a certain period, an effort to keep Netflix from luring creators away. The report says YouTube would pay creators for exclusivity in a few different ways, including directly financing programs or giving creators a portion of large brand deals.
Barron's has reached out to Google and Netflix for comment.
Wolfe Research analyst Peter Supino explained in a research note why that could pose a problem for Netflix stock.
Alphabet reported YouTube advertising revenue of $40.4 billion in 2025. Supino believes that massive amount of money could be used to encourage creators to stay exclusive to YouTube, potentially forcing Netflix to pay more to lure them over. That could eat into margins at a time when Netflix shareholders want to see the streaming giant's profitability grow.
"While we see Netflix continuing to expand its profit margins over time, we see risk to expectations for the degree of expansion due to programming cost pressures that accelerated in 2026," Supino said.
Netflix stock has already taken a hit this year as Wall Street worries about the next stage of growth for the streaming company, especially as competition heats up from rival streaming services such as Disney+ and short-form video platforms such as TikTok.
YouTube continues to be Netflix's largest competitor for streaming attention, with its content free to watch. According to research firm Nielsen, YouTube viewing accounted for 13.8% of streaming viewership time in June, while Netflix accounted for 7.9%.
Investors want to see that Netflix has a plan to ensure its next stage of growth in this challenging competitive environment.
Netflix is investing in different types of content to get existing subscribers excited while convincing new customers to sign up. This includes streaming a wide array of live sporting events and licensing content from creators on YouTube. The creator strategy seems to have legs. According to Netflix's latest engagement report published in July, children's show Ms. Rachel was the ninth most-watched show on the platform in the first half of the year.
But bringing in this new content isn't cheap.
"The bear case for Netflix isn't just sales growth in 2027 and beyond, it's also programming costs as Netflix strives to improve its core general entertainment & film offering while expanding in live, creator, video podcast, vertical, games...maybe someday music?" Supino wrote.
If YouTube forces Netflix into a bidding war for content, that could be a problem for programming costs, profit margins, and ultimately the stock.
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