The latest Market Talks covering Commodities. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
0849 ET - U.S. natural gas futures are lower at the start of the week. Warmer-than-normal weather extending well into September maintains some price support, with significant near-term heat driving cooling demand. But "with normal temperatures beginning to fall quickly at this point in the season, it will take extreme anomalies to drive outsized energy demand as the calendar rolls deeper into September," Andy Huenefeld of Pinebrook Energy Advisors says in a note. Nymex natural gas is down 0.6% at $2.871/mmBtu.(anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
0815 ET - Oil futures rise after the U.S. attacked Iranian rocket launchers, renewing military action in the Persian Gulf for the first time in weeks. "The longer geopolitical uncertainty and supply disruptions continue, the tighter the market gets, keeping upward pressure on crude," Nikos Tzabouras of Tradu says in a note. But the U.S. may have limited appetite for broader military action with its shift in focus to economic measures against Tehran and its enablers, he adds. Although below prewar levels, crude is finding its way out of the Middle East and with lower consumption the market could return to balance, he adds. WTI is up 3.4% at $86.21 a barrel, and Brent is 3.1% higher at $90.85. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
0546 ET - Gold prices fall as elevated U.S. Treasury yields and a more hawkish Federal Reserve outlook weigh on the non-yielding metal. The 10-year Treasury yield trades at around 4.71% while markets have raised expectations for a September rate increase following Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole remarks. Persistent inflation and the prospect of Fed rate increases risk lifting yields and the dollar, limiting gold's recovery, says Ewa Manthey, commodities strategist at ING. Gold futures are last 0.2% lower at $4,442.49 a troy ounce, having earlier fallen to a near two-week low of $4,395.89. (farhan.rafid@wsj.com)
0533 ET - Oil prices rise as renewed fighting between the U.S. and Iran revives concerns over crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz. November Brent rises 3.4% to $91.08 a barrel, while October WTI gains 3.3% to $86.19 a barrel. U.S. forces struck Iranian missile launchers on Larak Island, prompting retaliation from Tehran and renewed fears over safe passage through the key Gulf shipping route. Recent disruptions have shown how quickly uncertainty around Hormuz can feed back into oil prices, say ING commodity strategists Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey. (farhan.rafid@wsj.com)
2322 ET - Copper is little changed in early Asia trade. Strong fundamentals continue to provide support while growing expectations for the Fed's rate increases cap the upside, Guangzhou Futures analysts say in a note. Copper's fundamentals remain solid as supply stays tight and inventories continue to decline, they say. The three-month LME copper contract is flat at $14,285.00 a ton. (jiahui.huang@wsj.com; @ivy_jiahuihuang)
2240 ET - Iron ore is higher in early Asian trading. The commodity's supply and demand dynamics have improved, Nanhua Futures analysts say in a note. Investors expect demand to recover due to seasonal factors, they say. The most-traded iron-ore contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange is 0.7% higher at 726.50 yuan a ton.(tracy.qu@wsj.com)
2213 ET - Gold declines in Asian trade. The precious metal's current pullback below the $4,600 level is likely to be a natural correction on profit-taking after a strong upward rally, says XS.com's Rania Gule in an email. While the environment remains supportive for gold on a fundamental basis, the market has become increasingly sensitive to expectations surrounding U.S. monetary policy, she says. "Elevated inflation, combined with continued uncertainty over economic growth, fiscal conditions, and bond markets, is making the Federal Reserve's task increasingly complicated," the analyst adds. A higher interest rate environment typically weighs on nonyielding assets like gold. Spot gold drops 0.6% to $4,426.48 a troy ounce. (megan.cheah@wsj.com)
1918 ET - The most notable point in Metals X's annual result was the absence of a dividend, says Ord Minnett. It suggests Metals X is hoarding cash for future production growth. Analyst Matthew Hope says directors are looking toward the Rentails tin-project in Tasmania reaching a final investment decision in 2027, and other possible targets. "While Metals X could become a growth stock, we cannot see imminent catalysts," Ord Minnett says as it downgrades the company to hold, from buy. "The Renison mine is steady state, Rentails project may reach final investment decision in 2027, and the permitting status of projects in companies where Metals X holds a strategic stake is unknown." Metals X ended last week at A$1.915, up 22% over the past month. Ord Minnett retains a A$2.00/share price target.(david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)
1830 ET - Aeris Resources looks cheap to Ord Minnett in an increasingly more expensive sector. Sentiment toward base metals has improved, supported by strengthening commodity prices. Aeris trades on an enterprise value-to-Ebitda multiple of 2x, well below the 3.7x multiple of peers, analyst Paul Kaner says. It adds the miner's balance sheet, featuring some A$165 million in cash and no debt, is supporting elevated investment in FY27. That positions the business for future growth. "At spot prices, we forecast FY27 free cash flow of A$69 million (9% yield), increasing to A$243 million (31% yield) in FY28 as Constellation comes online," Ord Minnett says. "In our view, continued operational delivery in FY27 should drive greater market recognition of this FY28 earnings and cash flow uplift." It retains a buy call on the stock.
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