President Donald Trump's deal putting a large portion of Venezuela's oil reserves under U.S. control could encourage investment that eventually helps stabilize supply, but its near-term impact on pricing will likely be modest, analysts said in the hours after the agreement was announced.
Trump said on his Truth Social network Friday evening that the deal between his administration and Venezuela's interim leader Delcy Rodriguez "secured majority U.S. control" of 65 million barrels of the country's oil.
Venezuela has said it has more than 300 million barrels of total reserves-the largest reserve supply in the world-while the U.S.' sits at around 46 million.
"This Historic Transaction MORE THAN DOUBLES American Oil Reserves, greatly increases our Oil Supply, and will substantially lower Gas Prices for all Americans," the president said in his post.
Phil Flynn of the Price Futures Group, a brokerage and trading firm, said in a Saturday morning appearance on Fox News that gas price declines wouldn't happen overnight.
"It's going to be a generational thing," as the market absorbs the benefits of the end of past Venezuelan leaders' control of the country's oilfields, marked by stunted supply that drove up prices, he said.
Friday's deal gives the U.S. government a 55% stake in a newly-formed company that will hold a 100-year lease for the oilfields covered by the agreement, with the remaining portion held by a private operator in Venezuela, The Wall Street Journal reported Friday, citing a U.S. official.
"This could be a good thing as the major oil companies are presumably now dealing with a U.S. legal framework which could accelerate investments," Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates, a petroleum consulting firm, told CNN.
Chevron, which is the only major U.S. oil company that's maintained a presence in Venezuela over recent decades, has already said it is looking to ramp up output in Venezuela, potentially giving it the most to gain from the deal.
Still, Flynn said in the Fox News interview, despite the long investment horizon, traders may see the deal as a bullish signal for production when the oil market opens after the weekend.
"Psychologically it could put some downward pressure on prices," he said.
Oil futures markets open for trading on Sunday evening.
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