Wake me up when September ends. The new month, historically the worst for the stock market, hasn't quite started yet but it's already looking like being fraught with risk.
The market is getting more confident that the Federal Reserve will hike interest rates on Sept. 16, even if Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh didn't quite say as much in his Jackson Hole speech Friday. His policy of no forward guidance makes the crumbs he does offer even more enticing for market watchers.
The odds crept as high as 62% to start the week, up from 57% on Friday, according to CME's FedWatch tool. Oil prices aren't helping, rising above $90 a barrel after the U.S. attacked Iran over the weekend.
It's too early to call a tech pullback, or even a wobble for that matter. Stocks have had a good month, the Nasdaq Composite is up 4% in August and the Dow Jones Industrial Average is set for a fifth consecutive monthly gain.
But the rally could come to a halt, or worse, if rate-hike bets become a sure thing. Suddenly, Friday's August jobs report takes on a greater importance. If the labor data come in strong, it's unlikely to be a green day for stocks.
You can subscribe to the Barron's Daily newsletter here.
🎙?Be sure to tune in to today's Barron's Live
Join Barron's Senior Managing Editor Lauren R. Rublin and Senior Markets Analysis Writer Paul R. La Monica today at noon when they speak with Blake Gwinn, head of U.S. Rates Strategy at RBC Capital Markets, about the outlook for financial markets, industry sectors, and individual stocks. Sign up here.
📈 Here's what's happening in markets today:
Stock futures fall as Fed fears and U.S. strikes on Iran send jitters through markets.
Intel, ServiceNow, Chevron, and more stocks that explain today's market.
Rate-hike odds are rising, and the tech rally looks vulnerable.
Eli Lilly to buy autoimmune drugmaker for $2.9 billion in cash.
PG&E stock plummets on California wildfire legislation.
SpaceX's weekend: One big launch and one Crew-13 hiccup.
🛢 Trump's deal for Venezuelan oil needs time to move prices
President Donald Trump's deal to put a large portion of Venezuelan oil reserves under U.S. control could encourage investment that eventually helps stabilize supply, but its near-term impact on pricing will likely be modest, analysts say. Trump said Sunday some of the crude would refill the U.S.'s Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
🤖 Is the AI capex bubble about to burst? What history tells us.
Big Tech's cash-flow machines-Amazon, Alphabet, Meta Platforms, and Microsoft, among others-are going into debt to pay for their AI data centers, planning to spend a staggering $2 trillion over the next two years. Concerns are starting to show up in debt markets, where the cost to insure against a credit default has skyrocketed. Barron's looked at what history tells us.
🗓? Put it on your calendar
Every Monday morning Barron's publishes a rundown of what's coming up for investors in the week ahead. Don't miss out on earnings reports, inflation data, and anything that could move the markets. On the agenda:
Broadcom releases earnings.
Dell releases earnings.
Jobs data for August comes Friday.
🏘? Barron's looks at where house shoppers can find bargains
It's a topsy-turvy real estate market. The luxury price tier is hot, while first-time buyers are largely stuck wanting for affordable options. Sales are still low, prices are still high, and neither looks likely to budge much. An analysis by real estate brokerage Redfin shows the time is ripe for deals, especially in these markets.
🏀 The big story you missed this weekend Barron's editor-at-large Andy Serwer takes a look at how one athlete has turned the tables on private equity and Silicon Valley hotshots buying up stakes in sports teams. Basketball superstar Kevin Durant has apparently turned a $250,000 venture investment into $60 million.
? Can central banks modernize tokenized markets?
Central banks may hold the key to unlocking swifter, cheaper markets access. Innovation was one of the key themes of the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium. One of the more discussed papers was the "Tokenized finance and the perimeter of central banking" by Stanford's Darrell Duffie. Barron's had a look at what it was about.
📰 Don't miss out on our other newsletters
Energy Insider : These Power Stocks Have Other Ways to Win
View From the Circle : Gold's Rebound Is Just Beginning
Retirement Today : The Best Way to Own Gold in a Retirement Account
Review & Preview : Warsh Gets Real
💬 Quote of the day:
Other headlines moving markets:
Fed's Warsh cites readiness to act on inflation. That's forward guidance by any name.
Bond traders buy Warsh's tough talk on inflation, for now.
Why the trade war and Iran war aren't stopping the stock market rally.
Wendy's stock has plunged but history shows how it could come back.
Death of an alleged scammer targeting NFL players is now being investigated as a crime.
NASA is about to launch a telescope. What that means for SpaceX, others.
Oil is quietly slipping through the Strait of Hormuz. It's keeping a lid on prices.
Higher yields are a boon to muni bond investors.
Klarna CEO scoops up $10 million of stock.
Warsh is asking the right questions about AI. The answers will have to wait.
Affirm stock surges. A big Shopify deal is adding fuel.
Private-credit stocks are rebounding, but shared loans bring growing risk.
Buckle up for Wall Street's worst month.
6 numbers that back up the AI trade.
Monthly dividends are the latest income craze, but there are risks.
I want to hear from you! If you've got a great story for us, get in touch! You can email me at barronsdaily@barrons.com
-Edited by Liz Moyer, Stacy Ozol, and Patrick O'Donnell
Comments